CNN has Obama with 153 delegate lead in pledged delegates - predict tomorrow's effect on that

[stahbrett]

OK, leaving superdelegates out of the equation for this, since we're talking about the elected/pledged delegates.

Obama has a 153 delegate lead - what effect do you predict the 4 elections tomorrow will have on that lead?

For this thread, please don't get into which candidate you think should drop out or stay in, or which supporters you don't like, etc.

Do you see the lead shrinking to under 100? Do you see Obama increasing the lead? Do you see it remaining around the same, plus/minus 5-10 delegates?

[Avalux]

1. Obama can lose Texas and win more delegates.

At best, Hillary must win all 4 states big to gain 15-20 delegates. Mathematically, there's no way she can get anywhere near Obama tomorrow since he'll gain too.

[NightWatcher]

2. I think that it will be 5 one way or the other. not the momentum killer Hillary needs

and Wednesday, Bill Richardson will be making the call for her to step aside. I am guessing that there will be a lot of endorsements after Thursday or next weekend if she doesnt step aside.

[John Q. Citizen]

3. Obama will pick up delegates and increase his lead.

[SoFlaJet]

4. CNN had the super delegate number

for Obama at 185 and MSNBC has it at 208 why is that? HMMMM.... could it be they are pro-Clinton biased?

[book_worm]

10. She's been losing a lot of super delegate support in the last two weeks

that is actually very close.

[elixir]

14. RCP has the spread at 113. I find them more reliable. Check it out..

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_delegate_count.html

[Dawgs]

15. You're including SD's, which the OP said we're not discussing here.

It's actually 155.

[elixir]

20. A delegate is a delegate... if you got 'em, count 'em.

[stahbrett]

23. It's actually not very relevant one way or the other, now that I think about it

Here's a different way of asking the question:

There is a difference in delegates between Obama and Clinton. After tomorrow's election results, what net change to that difference do you predict there will be? You can give a raw number prediction ("Hillary will cut into the deficit by 30 delegates"), or a percentage ("Hillary will cut her deficit by 10%"), etc.

[elixir]

24. As any political wonk will tell you, projections don't mean anything. Let's stay on the facts.

Hillary is within striking distance and catching up.

[stahbrett]

27. Do you think she can realistically go into the convention with more pledged delegates?

I just don't see how, given the way delegates are proportionally allocated. And I just don't see the superdelegates overrule the pledged delegates.

[johnnydrama]

16. wrong #'s

That's with super delegates, who keep on changing every day. The pledged delegate list there shows 153 difference.

[karynnj]

34. That's super delegates

Clinton, given her power in the party, got many superdelegates very early - and they are not bound and can change their minds. Obama had far fewer than she did prior to Iowa - I think he had just himself and Durbin in the Senate.

Looking at the superdelegates at this point distracts from reality - as they can shift and frankly the call not to award the victory to the loser of the pledged delegate count is the more populous easier to defend position. The other side, where they claim they can alter a "close" result because of their superior insight - reeks of elitism. It would also lead to the view that this entire series of record breaking primaries and caucuses was a sham. Consider all the people STILL posting 4 years later that Kerry won because "powerful people" destroyed Dean - even though Kerry very convincingly got more votes.

Here, it would feel like playing a game, winning - then finding that the rules you thought were in place weren't. (Yes I know the superdelegates have been there since the 1980s - but even people who followed closely for many elections, don't think of it that way.) To make it worse - the most powerful and privileged in the party would be using that power to put in the person who started with all the advantages of power and who was rejected by more people than the other guy.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

5. I think he'll wind up with a small gain tomorrow.

[lapfog_1]

6. Obama +10 to +15 by tomorrow.

Even though Hillary will "win" Ohio and will tie Obama in Texas.

[Alter Ego]

7. He'll pick up a few, but nothing huge.

Tomorrow will be a stalemate--and Hillary will claim momentum, as she so opportunistically does.

[JimGinPA]

8. No Hillary Supporter Will Dicuss The Harsh Realities...

Rezco, CTV, blah, blah, blah is all they've got.


:smoke:

[book_worm]

9. Very evenly divided--maybe even a Obama net gain

how? even if Obama loses the popular vote in Texas (and I think he may actually win it) he could come out with more delegates thanks to his leads in Houston and Dallas/Fort Worth. The Hillary win in Ohio will not be by double digits and the delegates will be fairly evenly divided. Obama will sweep VT and most of its delegates. Obama will do better than expected in RI and those delegates will be fairly evenly divided.

[slick8790]

11. Hillary plus 10-ish.

Nothing spectacular.

[Independent-Voter]

25. HRC gaining between 5-10. No big shakes, but she'll treat it like a "Mandate"

HRC is nothing but Bush in a pantsuit.

[jefferson_dem]

12. OpenLeft projects a net gain of TWO delegates for Hillary, based on current poll #s.

Her 11 point gain in OH will be nearly wiped away by Obama's gain in the TX caucuses.



http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=4306

[Capn Sunshine]

22. OHIO is closer than the polling data this was based on indicates

:woohoo:
latest numbers just in.....

[backscatter712]

13. Clinton will fail to pick up enough delegates to change the game.

And after tomorrow, she will be completely out of opportunities to catch up.

Realistically, I think she needs to drop out, so the party can unify and focus on beating McCain.

[mohc]

17. I think it will be Obama around 200-170

And almost all of the net difference will come from the Texas caucus.

RI will most likely be 12-9 for Clinton. They will split district 1 3-3, Clinton will grab an extra delegate in district 2 4-3, Clinton will also get the extra delegates in the statewide vote 3-2 for at-large and 2-1 for PLEO.

VT will most likely be 9-6 for Obama. Obama will take the district 6-4, the extra at-large delegate 2-1, and they will split the PLEO 1-1.

OH will be around 73-68 for Clinton. The district breakdowns would be next to impossible to predict for Ohio, but there are enough small odd numbered districts (there are 5 districts with 5 delegates) that Clinton should net about 2 or 3 delegates and then top it off with the at-large and PLEO delegates.

TX will be 114-79 for Obama. The district breakdowns will be fairly close, but as has been documented the urban districts should give Obama about a 10 delegate gap, erasing Clinton's lead from Ohio. But 67 delegates will be based on the result of the statewide caucus votes, and I believe he will end up with somewhere in the 67% range in the caucuses. This will net him about 23 delegates.

[Dawgs]

18. I'll go with your numbers.

:-)

[grantcart]

21. I agree Obama 200 Clinton 170

Obama's magic number would then be 444

Clinton would be 579

[DJ13]

19. Obama will win more delegates than Clinton tomorrow

Wednesday the party leaders put the screws to her behind the scenes to get out.

[tekisui]

26. Obama 175-200 Pledged Delegate lead after March 4th.

[TexasObserver]

28. Obama will have a 200 delegate lead in pledged delegates after today.

[kennetha]

29. HIllary will surprise and net about 20 delegates.

But if (and when) she wins TX, Ohio, and RI, look for her to make a vigorous argument that the FL and MI delegations MUST be seated. With those delegates, I believe Obama's lead in pledge delegates would be well below 100.

[Bullet1987]

30. It'll be around the same

Hillary won't get the sweeping wins she needs in either Texas or Ohio.

[kennetha]

33. sweeping wins she needs for what?

to overtake Obama in the pledge delegate count? That's true. But she doesn't need to do that to convince the super delegates to keep their powder dry. She doesn't need to do that to mount an argument that the Florida and Michigan delegations MUST be seated. And she doesn't need to do that to mount a case that the Super cannot hand the nomination to a guy who wins mostly in places that Democrats don't have a ghost of a chance of winning and loses in places that Democrats MUST win, but aren't guaranteed to win -- like Ohio or Florida. Also, do you realize that in a recent poll 25% of Clinton voters in, I think, Ohio would vote for McCain in the general if it were a choice between Obama and McCain?

I'm just saying that the issue isn't just "who has the lead in pledged delegates?" That's what the Obama side would like to MAKE be the one and only issue. But If Hillary wins tonight in TX and OH, and RI, there whole narrative landscape of this struggle will change and change in ways that favor her and disfavor Obama.

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

31. There's no winner take all, he has net gain from these contests

He wins more delegates/votes in Texas by a few points,
He has less delegates/votes in Ohio by a few points.

Overall, he bests Hillary and she can't beat him unless he eats a baby.

Elders will start endorsing Hillary so that she can't spend the next few months
helping the GOP by dividing the DEMS any more.

[jefferson_dem]

32. Obama finishes the night with a net gain of 12 delegates.

Hillary will win OH and therefore justify to herself and a few loyal followers that she should remain in, regardless of the damage it could potentially do to the party and the eventual nominee.

[lmbradford]

35. Obama +15

This is my opinion....and by the way, I just read in another thread that he has over 50 supers already lined up ready to announce tomorrow.