Polls- Last I checked they do not poll people that only have cell phones

[NJmaverick]

Which group of people are more likely to have only cell phones? Obama's young voters or Hillary's old ladies?

[NightWatcher]

1. that's one reason he out performs the polls in every state

and according to the same polls, Ohio is in play and Texas is a slight lead for Obama

:)

[DemVet]

27. Yeah, like New Hampshire. n/t

[book_worm]

2. There is some truth in this which may be why Obama has generally done better in the end than

the polls indicated.

[jefferson_dem]

12. Obama has consistently overperformed. That much is true.

The cell-phone only phenomenon could be the reason, or it could also be the enthusiasm gap, or the "likely voter" screen, which doesn't factor in the huge groundswell for Obama among more non-traditional voting blocs.

[backscatter712]

3. I have a only a cell phone,

and I've never, ever been polled on it.

When the young voters are energized, that's a damned good reason to take all the polls with a bucket of salt.

They've frequently been off by spectacular amounts, and this is one of the reasons - they can't get an unbiased sample, since they're forbidden by law from calling cell phones.

[Samurai_Writer]

4. This 'old lady' only has a cell phone

And I'm an Obama supporter.

[gateley]

11. And you have a breathtakingly beautiful cat --

as befits an "old lady". (I have one, too. :7)

[LadyVT]

24. Me, too!

Lila is a white Persian. What a lovely spirit. :)
Actually, I have had a cell phone since they first came out.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. "Hillary's old ladies?"

Maybe you would like to see them euthanized.

[NJmaverick]

14. Why?

That's certainly an odd remark

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. I Infer From Your Use Of The Term "Old Ladies" You Don't Find Them Useful

If someone thinks a group of people is unuseful is it unfair to infer that person would like to see that group eliminated?

[NJmaverick]

21. Hmmm If you use the term "old ladies" you must not find

them useful. That is a rather bizarre conclusion to draw.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. I See

You called them "old ladies" to communicate their vitality and essential nature...


I apologize for misconstruing what you wrote...

[Hieronymus]

35. Oh my, that's a leap, even for a Hillary supporter.

[rinsd]

6. Actually some polls do incorporate cell phones.

Pew has done some work with it.

http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=276

[NJmaverick]

15. That only really confirmed what I already said

They are not using them in polls, that story was trying to say it doesn't make a difference.

[rinsd]

Here's an updated study completed within the last few months

http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=391

"that story was trying to say it doesn't make a difference."

Yeah imagine that. Actually studying the issue, doing research and comparing results vs snarky comments.

[NJSecularist]

7. Do you have any proof here?

Or is this just wishful thinking?

What poll are you talking about? Survey USA? Have you verified they only use landline polling?

[NJmaverick]

16. I have read a few article about it

I can also tell you that I carry to cell phones and never once had a survey called to one of them.

[NJSecularist]

26. Do you have a link to these articles?

And the second part of your sentence certainly isn't proof..

[Avalux]

8. I read an article about this recently - the people less likely to have land lines:

Young people, African Americans and white males.

Take from that what you will. ;-)

[snooper2]

9. Yeah, knock off the old ladies comment...

My sister is an old lady but only has a cell phone :evilgrin:

okay, she's 44

[lapfog_1]

10. Hey... I'm an old fart (over 50)...

and all I have is a cell phone.

Plus T1 speed internet (wireless).

Plus satellite (TV only).

Didn't make any sense to keep paying for a land line.

[Tarc]

13. Last time I looked between my legs, I wasn't an "old lady"

By all means if you wanna come verify, drop me a private message here poptart, and name the time and place. But Clinton's base does not just consist of women.

Gotta love how anything regarding Obama's middle name, color, religion, etc...is howled down, but simple misogyny is still seen as acceptable here in the DU.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. Irony Is Lost On That Group...

~

[Independent-Voter]

20. Ohhhh, an Internet Tough Guy. Hate to break it to you, but HRC's only block of consistant voters

are, yep, older white women. Dem's just the facts poncho.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

25. ..

[Tarc]

28. Don't have to be a tough guy to poke holes in your stereotypes, son.

[JimGinPA]

31. That Kind Of Seemed Like A Threat From An Old Lady

Just sayin'


:shrug:

[elixir]

18. Good point, Nomad. In fact, many latino families have cells only, at least where I live.

[LadyVT]

23. No, but they poll equivalent proportions of young voters

[Nederland]

29. Doesn't make a difference

Polling firms have samples they have to fill: so many people of a certain race, so many people of a certain age, so many people of a certain income group, etc. They keep on contacting people until they get enough people to fill every sample. As a result, although it may take them longer to find young people because many don't have landlines, those people will be represented in the poll.

[nickn777]

30. That is correct....

It's all about how you weight the samples based on age, gender and race. Predicting WHO is actually going to show up is the difficult part which is one reason why so many polls are way off.

[NJmaverick]

32. It's the catch 22

Those that tend to poll certain numbers for certain groups, tend to underestimate Obama's excitement factor and those that poll random phone numbers miss the cell phone people (who would be more likely Obama supporters).

[Nederland]

33. Don't see your point

Again, they way this works is that polling companies make a guess as to what percentage of voters are going to be young people. They then proceed to contact people until they get that number of young people. Now, as the previous poster mentions, they might underestimate how large that young person percentage should be, but that is an error of judgement that has nothing to do with cell phones. In order for your statement to be true, you'd have to prove somehow that young people with only cell phones vote differently than young people with landlines. I've seen no such evidence.

[NJmaverick]

34. My point is that the demographic based polls

Don't appreciate the Obama excitement factor. So they tend to under represent the youth vote. There are other polls using random phone numbers, instead of demographics, and those are hurt by the cell phone skew.