Any other Barack backers expecting a sweep?

[pettypace]

I know I'm playing up the expectation level the Hillary camp has set up for him, but I think I'd be surprised if he loses any of the four, given the routs we've seen heretofore. He's overcome her in Latino-heavy Texas in the latest polls which I thought would be the biggest hurdle...I think Ohio falls in line with Wisconsin, but not more than 10 points.

I just can't see him going from winning the last 8 states by double digits only to succumb to a straight-up LOSS on Tuesday.

Am I being overly optimistic here - whats the feeling with you all?

[TwilightGardener]

1. No--expecting mixed results. May even be a close loss in three out of 4.

I am lowering my expectations, and bracing for the worst. That's my usual MO.

[Eric J in MN]

2. No, Obama will lose in Rhode Island. NT

NT

[theboss]

3. I doubt he wins RI

I think he will lose RI easily and win Vermot easily.
I think he will likely lose Ohio by thin margin.
And I think he win Texas by a surprisingly comfortable margin.

If that scenario plays out, I think Hillary has to quit.
If that scenario plays out with her losing Ohio by any margin, she should be taken away in a straight jacket if she chooses to continue.

[JeanGrey]

34. Hillaryhas to quit unless she wins Ohio and Texas by HUGE

margins because of the delegate count. But she won't.

[MadBadger]

4. I'm expecting a split. I still see her winning Ohio and him winning Texas

Shell win RI, and he'll win big in VT

[mattclearing]

5. I am optimistic. n/t

[blonndee]

6. No. I think Clinton will win Ohio of the two biggies.

Her recent going negative may be working. But what do I know.

[JeanGrey]

35. It won't matter. An article out today showing how the delegates

are counted in Ohio plainly shows a win for her there won't net her but a few more delegates than him. She needs way more than that.

[cali]

7. possible but unlikelyl

In any case, it'll be close in OH and RI. He'll win in TX decisively and in VT overwhelmingly.

[grantcart]

8. here's the thing about RI.

A strange thing about RI is that if you happen to introduce one RI person to another they will ask about schools and churches etc until they start their, "do you know ________" and the other one responds, "no do you know _____" and this goes on for a few minutes until they find a common friend. Everytime I have seen 2 guys from RI meet it is the same thing.

Now with Obama having a rally there with 10,000 people everybody in the entire state will know somebody who was there. More and more will claim that they too were there. Eventually virtually everyone in the entire state will say they were there and having been there will have to vote for Obama, resulting in one of the most unusual landslides in electoral history - or so the theory goes.

[yourguide]

31. I dont know...

two sets of boots on the ground posted in GDP about RI yesterday.

The HRC canvasser said she had a good day and HRC has a lot of support.

The obama canvasser also said HRC has a lot of support, I think HRC gets this one by high single digits.

[meow mix]

9. me too =)

i can easily see a sweep happenin woot

[ClayZ]

10. Sweep!

Yes we can!

[cooolandrew]

11. I think he is selling the superior product why have an ordinary phone when you can have an iphone.

With tem Obama you are getting something new improved it can be upgraded. The product generates big excitement and once you actually use it it's even better than you imagined.

[David Zephyr]

12. Obama's victory in Texas will be so big that it will be a huge embarrassment to Hillary.

I also think Obama will win in Ohio, but it will be close.

Texas will be a ship wreck for Hillary.

[pnwmom]

13. I doubt that. Of course, I've been listening to my mother in Texas.

She and her friends are big Hillary supporters.

[BringBigDogBack]

16. My feelings.

[Gore1FL]

14. It all comes down to turnout.

Turnout has been Obama's key to success.

I try to take this as an unbiased approach. For full disclosure, I was for Edwards. I voted for Obama in the MO primary because the issues I cared about more closely matched Sen Obama's take on them then Sen Clintons. I would also preface that I would vote for either in the general election. I am sure someone will see this analysis as flame bait. That is not the desire of any of my posts.

Now for my take.

What I have seen from Obama is that he energizes his supporters to go and vote. His rallies are bigger. His message is fundamentally bigger--in a way that many do not see th message at all, ironically. Those he inspires, however, seem dedicated to go out and vote, no matter the weather, no matter the odds, no matter what.

Whjat I have seen from Hillary, is that she has a smaller, energized base, like Obama's, that will turn out in all conditions. Her message, as of late, has not one to motivate other supporters to vote, but rather attempt to swing fence sitters to not vote for Obama, and to make what i copnsider a feeble attempt to disway the energized Obama supporters for being so energized. I think the opposite was true in places where she won--she inspired supporters to turn out.

Hence, I believe Clinton is deploying a strategy that is ill-serving her. It plays to her weaknesses. The end result is not Hillary turnout, but rather a spectacle of trying to hold back the ocean with a bulldozer.

If you look at the run of 10 state primaries and caucuses since Super Tuesday, (and for that matter, even some on Super Tuesday) Obama out-performed expectations--often closing Clinton leads in the weeks before to win handily when it came to the vote. It is turnout.

But as I mentioned, the strategy seems to have changed. She is offering less compelling reasosns to turn out for her, and has been trying to hone a message that differentiates her from Obama, or frame Obama in a manner to quell voters. That tactic simply will not work with, (for lack of a better word) the movement Obama supporters have created.

One fundamental flaws with the polls, (and there are many) is the "likely voter" concept of the population. Likely voter addresses the demographics and typographics of those polled. This election is monumentally different. (add cell phones to the list, and you can see how the population becomes less and less valid, and tends to ultimately favor Obama in the margin of error--which, seems to be a larger margin of error because of the statistical population problem.

Taking all of that into account, and Obama sweep is certainly possible. VT and TX, under these assumptions are clean victories. OH would be close, but under the analysis above, is a marignal Obama victory.

That leaves RI. This is what we know about it:

WPRI TV poll conducted by Fleming Associates
Date: 2/24-27
Clinton 49%
Obama 40%
Unsure 11%

Moe 4.9%

There is all of Monday to go. Frankly this gives Obama a roughly 1-2% edge (based on trends, national polls, money spent, etc.). for the ease of math we will call it 1.1 add the MOE as explained above and it looks like 6%+ for Obama 46%. Figuring that some of that support comes from Clinton, it is proabalt a 48%-46% race favoring Clinton.

Now, does it rain? Snow? Bad weather favors Obama.

Likely it is a marginal Clinton victory. Obama could eek it out, but the conditions have to be perfect.

Make of this what you will.

[Zachstar]

36. Great Post!!!

And I think it is good for Clinton supporters as well.

Some Clinton supporters here still think she can pull off the BIG BIG BIG win. +100 delegates needed to stay in this race and even if she (Not saying she will) tried to cheat she could not get enough and will be caught because even a cell phone can be a video camera these days.

It will be less painful if you start the process of acceptance now. I am not saying Obama supporters need to call this one. Just saying Clinton Supporters I hope you can just move on and look forward to 2012...

2012 will be interesting. If Clinton cleans up and comes back hard in 2012. It might be one of the longest and most celebrated primaries of the 2010's.

[Gore1FL]

38. In 2012

I hope we are running an incumbent--whomever it is.

[donheld]

15. No I am not

I'd like one but will be very happy with 2 out of 4.

[Tatiana]

17. No. Hillary will win RI. n/t

[TheWebHead]

18. praying for a sweep

anything to avoid another 7 weeks of Democratic party civil war. If Hillary stays in until at least PA I think McCain has to become a slight favorite in November... This has been just too poisonous for the party.

[bowens43]

19. I'm hoping but not expecting.

I think Hillary will win Ohio but not by enough to make a big difference for her.

[blogslut]

20. shhhh

Be vewy vewy quiet. We're hunting rabbit. Hehehehehehehe

[democrattotheend]

21. No - I am expecting the opposite

I am nervous about Ohio and Texas. I am afraid we could see another California or Massachusetts.

[bunnies]

22. nope. the only state Im counting on is VT.

All the others make me very nervous.

[mmonk]

23. Nope.

Wish he could to stop the brand of politics going on but I don't see it.

[JVS]

24. I think you are over-optimistic, but I would love to see a sweep

I hope she gets fucked up at the polls.

[Alter Ego]

25. He won't sweep

but he'll win Texas and Vermont, and perhaps split Ohio with Hillary.

Unfortunately, because he didn't win both states, the paper the next morning will read "STUNNING COMEBACK BY CLINTON, MARK PENN DEMANDS THAT OBAMA DROP OUT".

[easy_b94]

26. IF it is a sweep then Game Set Match...It's over for HRC.

[Independent-Voter]

27. I'd love to see HRC get her ass handed to her again, but I think she take RI and OH by

[workinclasszero]

28. It could be a split..

Hillary wins RI and barely eeks out a win in Ohio.

Obama wins Texas by 10% or better and takes Vermont with a large margin.

But really I'm holding out for better. I think Obama will take Texas, Ohio and Vermont. I'm hoping the undecideds break big for Obama and all the young voters who don't get counted in polls stuff the ballot box for Obama.

That would finish off Hillary's horrible campaign for good.

[totodeinhere]

29. A sweep in TX, OH and VT.

Too close to call in R. I. That would overall translate into a big victory for Obama and put tremendous pressure on Clinton to quit.

[Major Hogwash]

30. No, but I'm waiting for someone to throw water on her.

"I'm melting, melting, oh, what a cruel, cruel world."

[Abacus]

32. No, 2 of 4. /nt

[JeanGrey]

33. It won't matter even if she wins Ohio. She cannot catch up in

delegate counts.

[Zachstar]

37. Agreed!

You cannot spin cold hard math. The TV networks have already started moving away from "wh0 w0n 1t" state by state and are stating stuff in Delegate counts now.

She has to have a net gain of 100 delegates to stay in this one and avoid a super flock. Anything less will be a loss.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

39. It's hard to say.

Clinton's up in two states, but it seems the polls have been consistently underestimating Obama by 10-20 points in the last 11 contests.

[Greyskye]

40. Nope. The 'u' and 'y' factors are still in play.

I'm thinking 2 of 4, but that's just a WAG.

There are two factors that put a kink in any predictions for tomorrow.

1) The 'u' factor: (Plus for Hillary) - The 'underdog' effect. When there are two strong candidates in a race, the perceived underdog often gets a boost as people don't want to see the end of them - even if they are not totally committed to that candidate.

2) The 'y' factor: (Plus for Obama) - The 'cell phone' effect. Polls that are being conducted are primarily done on land lines, which young voters tend not to have anymore. In a race that has the young voters coming out as never before, the pollsters might not have as good of handle on the final numbers as they think they do.

[gravity]

41. I think that she will take Ohio

and lose in Texas

[bicentennial_baby]

42. Oh hell no

[Dogmudgeon]

43. Obama MUST win all four or he's toast!!!

Then he will HAVE TO drop out, or he will split the Democratic party!!!

He's had the entire press on his side since the middle of the autumn!!! If he can't put a stake in the Daughter of Darkness' black heart now, he will go down like the Titanic! The Titanic, I tell you!!!!!

--p!

[IndyOp]

45. Hey, p...

You might need a


or maybe just a

or perhaps a

As you wish...

[Dogmudgeon]

46. I need a whole case of 'em

I picked a bad time to go off my blood-pressure meds.



--p!
230/160: It's not just an unreduced fraction anymore!
On the other hand, doesn't Viagra reduce blood pressure, too?

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

44. I'm worried about Rezko.

Oh, wait! No, I'm not!

2-2

+8 Obama

[mopinko]

47. from the ground in cincy-

110 chicagoans canvassed in cincy over the weekend. we knocked on 10,000 doors. we were in every kind of neighborhood. some folks ran into republicans, but very, very few hit any hillary supporters.
never seen so much joy in my life, either.

[VolcanoJen]

48. An important thing to note about Ohio.

Look... from my perspective, Obama is crushing her on the ground and on the airwaves. The only Hillary ad I've seen in five solid days is the repeat of the "Obama Wants Your Children To Die In Their Beds" ad on the cable networks and Sunday morning TV shows.

But, it doesn't matter if you're watching American Idol or Meet the Press or Jericho or Big Brother... you're going to see four Obama ads to zero Clinton ads in Ohio within that television viewing hour.

And the ads are uplifting, positive, youthful. Clinton isn't mentioned in any of them. WE are mentioned in all of them. The one thing that strikes me about his ads is that they all seem to end with, "Don't tell me we can't change. Yes we can!"

That's the one thing that's missing in every one of these "Hillary is rebounding in Ohio" threads. That, outside of the polling, there is no evidence of that on the streets or on the airwaves.

Don't discount that when writing off Ohio for Obama.

[NJmaverick]

49. I predict a close win in Texas and a close loss in Ohio

And Hillary not doing what she needs to do.

[Ichingcarpenter]

51. How do you feel about the voting machine integrity in your state now?

I posted an article a month ago that stated there still were major problems with
the integrity of the system, but I didn't follow up on what was done to improve it.


http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

[sniffa]

50. I'm hoping for one, but not expecting it

Regardless of the outcomes, unless it's Obama winning all 4 states by 20+ points, he's done for.

[AtomicKitten]

52. Latest results render both Texas and Ohio a genuine nail-biter.

http://www.bizjournals.com/columbus/stories/2008/03/03/...