Reuters/Zogby Tracking Poll in TX: Obama UP by 4.

[RBInMaine]

Today's tracker has it 47-43 Obama in TX and Hillary up 1 at 46-45 in OH. In other words, ALL the polls in the aggregate on balance right now really have it too close to call. It's going to largely come down to GOTV where I think Obama has an edge. (Also, we have to consider late deciders, Independents, and Republican crossovers. These are the factors that make primary polling so hard to measure accurately. Remember the lesson of NH, and in Wisconsin the late polls had it much closer than what the actual voting showed.)


http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1459

[cali]

1. yep. hard to make any predictions about OH and TX

Even RI could be hard to call.

[RBInMaine]

2. Sorry, it's actually 47-46 in OH, Hillary up by 1.

[tekisui]

10. Down to one from 20+.

There will be no way she can spin a victory out of Tuesday's votes.

[workinclasszero]

3. I don't think the pollsters can accurately gage Obama's support

because of his huge youth vote. Many of these people don't have a landline so they don't get polled.

Look at Wisconsin. I thought that was going to be real close and it was a blowout for Obama. Did any pollsters predict that? If so I missed it.

I so hope that Texas and Ohio will be like that on the 4th.:)

[polichick]

6. You're right...

...polls are useless at this point.

[Arkana]

7. He consistently outperforms polls

so Texas could end up being a 10-point win for him, even.

[fedupinBushcountry]

13. Exactly

I have 3 kids my oldest is 30 and my other 2 are in their 20's, none of them have landlines and they all voted for Obama. By the way we had a blow out in Virginia, no one was close on that margin of a win.

[RBInMaine]

15. Another good point which makes the polling tough.

[Le Taz Hot]

18. Interesting point.

I never thought about that and it could explain why the pollsters have consistently under polled Obama.

[thesubstanceofdreams]

4. Zogby is worthless

But it's going to be close, which is good news for Obama.

My fear is that if Hillary eeks out a win by the slimmest of margins in both TX and OH then she will continue her campaign to the bitter end, while McCain laughs his ass off all the way to the presidency.

[thesubstanceofdreams]

5. Lol, look at this paragraph at the end ot today's report:

NOTE: Yesterday’s release incorrectly mentioned that Clinton led Obama by double-digits in Texas in the one-day of polling completed on Friday, Feb. 29. Her one-day advantage was actually one point.

Zogby :crazy:

[adoraz]

9. haha

just saw that

[RBInMaine]

16. Remember one day vs. tracking average are different.

[adoraz]

8. yay, very happy to see Obama on top again in Texas

[Upton]

11. Sounds great but early voting

should favor Hillary, particularly in Ohio.

[Alhena]

12. The Texas early voting was during an Obama surge ...

he had some of his highest poll numbers during early voting periods.

The timing of early voting in Texas is pretty favorable for Obama.

[Upton]

14. I hope you're right but look at

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/02/17/ohio-primary-latest-news_n_86925.html of Feb 17 regarding Ohio:

"Early voting favors Clinton: Among the 12% of respondents who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted, Clinton leads by 22 points. For Obama to win Ohio, he must receive at least 52% of the remaining likely voters."

[RBInMaine]

19. Could be offset by the later pre-March 4th voting though.

[Alhena]

21. I saw another poll with much closer early voting numbers

[RBInMaine]

17. Not necessarily.

[RBInMaine]

20. Also, remember that they poll PREVIOUS voters.

Many polling firms call those identified as previous primary voters; those who have voted in past primaries.
This does not account for the many new voters which favor Obama, and higher turnout among demographic groups than we usually see that would tend to favor Obama (i.e. young voters and African Americans).
In the end though, this will largely come down to a matter of demographics vs. GOTV. Demographics essentially favor Clinton in thse states. Can Obama offset those natural advanatages with a better GOTV operation? Can he cut enough into Hillary's base?
Either way, it's going to be a nail-biter I think.