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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-24-08 12:51 PM
Original message
Early Texas Voting Results start to point to heavy Obama influence
Summary
. . . 4 Days of early voting already exceeds early voting records in the 2004 GENERAL ELECTION

. . . Heavy demand for democrat ballots in Republican districts

. . . Demand for ballots up 1000+% in Democratic districts

. . . U of Texas sees 23,000 students register in 5 weeks

. . . Students wait 10 hours in line to vote in Early voting



Houston Chronicle Reports huge Early voting turn out - More democrats have voted in 4 days than in all 2004 General Election

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/5563949.html

Harris County residents have cast a record number of early ballots this week, propelled largely by a fiercely competitive Democratic presidential contest, elections and political observers say.

After just four days of early voting, which began Tuesday and ends Feb. 29, the number of in-person votes has surpassed the total cast in early voting in the 2004 presidential primary.

As of the end of voting Friday, 50,997 voters — 38,214 Democrats and 12,783 Republicans — had been to the polls. A total of 35,381 voters cast ballots in person during the entire 2004 early voting period.

"I've never seen anything like it. I really haven't," she said. "When I looked at 10:30 a.m., and we've already voted 3,000 people, I said, 'Holy cow. We're going to have some turnout.' "

And in Fort Bend County, the number of early ballots already has surpassed the total of all early voting in 2006, when a little more than 5,000 votes were cast. As of Friday afternoon, 9,699 ballots — 6,491 Democratic and 3,208 Republican — had been cast, interim elections administrator Robin Heiman said. There are roughly 270,000 registered voters in Fort Bend County.

Dick Murray, a University of Houston political scientist, said he has seen evidence that Republicans are crossing over, perhaps because of Obama's bipartisan pitch.

For example, in Kingwood's precinct 469, where 82 percent of voters cast ballots for President Bush in 2004, Murray said Democrats by midweek were outvoting Republicans 4 to 1.

In another Chronicle article about Latino Voting
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/metropolitan/556363...


In Harris County, Clinton looks to mirror her success in Super Tuesday primaries, when the New York senator won 64 percent of Hispanic voters.

In California, where Latino voters made up 30 percent of the voters, 69 percent voted for Clinton and 29 percent for Obama.

''This is the state both campaigns need — him to keep moving and her to stay in the game," said Lydia Camarillo, vice president of the Southwest Voters Registration and Education Project in San Antonio, which registers Hispanic voters.
Obama campaign spokesman Nick Shapiro acknowledged the Clintons' deep connections with Hispanics in Texas.

''However, given Senator Obama's long track record of fighting for the Hispanic community, bringing Democrats and Republicans together to expand access to health care, cut taxes for working families, and pass groundbreaking ethics reform, we expect support in the Hispanic community in Texas to grow steadily," Shapiro said.

A growing list of Hispanic elected officials supporting the Illinois senator includes state Rep. Ana Hernandez, an attorney whose district is 76 percent Hispanic and includes parts of east Houston, the Port of Houston and Pasadena. Hernandez said Obama will be able to attract Latino support.

''It's a mistake when people think that Latinos will automatically support Hillary," Hernandez said.

Dora Olivo, a state representative whose district includes Missouri City, said she is backing Obama because of his immigrant background. His father is from Kenya.

''He has lived in two worlds," said Olivo, a second-generation Mexican-American. ''The fact he's gone through that, and understands it — there's a beauty to it."



Dallas Business Journal
http://dallas.bizjournals.com/dallas/stories/2008/02/18...

Enthusiasm for the Democrats' 2008 presidential primary election is running extremely high in North Texas, and early voting numbers from day one, issued by the Secretary of State, show a striking contrast between the 2004 and 2008 contests.

In Denton County, the day one early voting totals for the Democrats' 2004 primary registered an anemic 151 ballots. This year, Denton pulled in a total of 1,832 ballots; an increase of 1,215 percent.

In Collin County, 175 votes were registered in 2004. In 2008, the GOP stronghold saw a tsunami of 2,474 Democratic ballots; an increase of 1,413 percent.

Tarrant County, also a GOP stronghold, faced the same voter swarm. In 2004 the Secretary of State logged 980 votes. In 2008, day one totals came to 7,415; up 756 percent.

Dallas County, which became a Democratic bastion in 2006, was no different. In 2004, 962 ballots were cast. In 2008, the number is 9,834; a leap up by 1,022 percent.

Obama visited the Rio Grande Valley, Corpus Christi and Austin on Friday, after visits earlier in the week to Houston, San Antonio and Dallas.

Dallas Morning News
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/news/politi...

Armed with campaign posters, voter-registration cards and enough board games and buttered popcorn to make it through the night, dozens of students spent the 10 hours before early voting began outside their campus precinct, educating every bleary-eyed studier and after-hours straggler about the Texas primary

The UT College Democrats have registered close to 23,000 people to vote in the past five weeks – the large majority of them students. That's more than anyone on campus can remember registering for a primary, said Laura Hernandez, the organization's president

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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-24-08 01:04 PM
Response to Original message
1. I spent an hour scouring reports, got 6 recs/no replies kick lol
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JackORoses Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-24-08 01:06 PM
Response to Reply #1
6. good work Grant
It's hard to keep a decent thread up top with all the trash out there these days.
I appreciate your efforts.
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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-24-08 02:34 PM
Response to Reply #6
22. tks
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0007 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-25-08 09:11 AM
Response to Reply #22
70. Did you check with the folks in Santon Texas (Home of the soreheads)??
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MaineDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-24-08 01:10 PM
Response to Reply #1
10. Good grief, give us a chance to read it.
:eyes:

It's all about GOTV. If one candidate works harder on getting supporters out to vote, he or she has run a good ground game and deserves the win.
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Bullet1987 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-24-08 01:05 PM
Response to Original message
2. People have thought for a while that the rules would favor
Obama in TX. What's the thing about certain counties having more influence than others because of 2004?
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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-24-08 01:17 PM
Response to Reply #2
13. Your question lets me bring in an older thread that explains Texas
Your question is answered in IV below


I. Make or Break State
Clinton surrogates have gone on record in a high profile way that Texas is an absolute must win.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008 /... /
quote
He hinted at a similar sentiment earlier this week on CNN, but James Carville – a supporter of Hillary Clinton’s White House run — was decidedly more blunt Wednesday on the impact a loss in Texas or Ohio would have on her presidential bid.
"Make no mistake," Bill Clinton's former chief strategist told the Orlando Sentinel. "If she loses either Texas or Ohio, this thing is done."unquote

II. Texas is in part a caucus state:

http://www.star-telegram.com/national_news ...
quote
Texas has an unusual system of choosing delegates that involves both a primary and a caucus.

The system, which follows national party standards, is geared to ensure that all Democrats have a shot at making it to the convention and making their voice -- and choice -- heard.

"It's very, very confusing in the way politics in general is confusing," said Rebecca Deen, an associate professor of political science at the University of Texas in Arlington. "The Democratic National Convention has weighted the votes, but they want to make sure the people who participate get to weigh in."

Texas will send 228 delegates to this year's Democratic National Convention in Denver. Of those delegates, 126 will be assigned to vote for candidates based on election results.

An additional 35 will be super delegates . . .The remaining 67 delegates will be chosen through the caucus system -- with 42 being rank-and-file Democrats and 25 being party leaders and elected officials, according to a Lone Star Project Report.
unquote

Hillary and her machine has already dissed the caucus system pretty thoroughly I wonder who energized their folks are going to be for a process disavowed by their candidate. More to the point Obama's forces are skilled and they have the bodies motivated to move on a caucus.

III. The absence of a post Feb 5th campaign plan shows Clintons behind Obama in organization

On Feb 6th the Clinton campaign identified a single staffer going to Texas while Obama campaign had a detailed plan sending in the Iowa team to open 10 offices. http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/politi ...

quote Adrienne Elrod, a 1998 Texas Christian University graduate who worked on the campaign of Houston Democratic Rep. Nick Lampson, flew to the state to do communications for Clinton. . . .

Obama officials said he would open 10 offices around the state including Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, Austin and in the Rio Grande Valley.

The campaign named Adrien Saenz, a former aide to Rep. Ciro Rodriguez, D-San Antonio, to be its state director, and Mitch Stewart, who directed Obama's Iowa grass roots operations, to be Texas field director.

Another veteran of the Iowa campaign, Josh Ernest, a 1997 Rice University graduate who worked on former Houston Mayor Lee Brown's 1997 campaign, was named communications director.

"The ground team that has been on board since Iowa is parachuting in tonight (Wednesday)," said Juan Garcia, a Texas state lawmaker from Corpus Christi who attended Harvard Law School with Obama.



IV Delegate Distribution favors Obama.
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archiv ...

To begin with no one gets a single delegate for taking the state. Delegates are appropriated to state senate districts based on Kerry's performance in 04.

quote
The delegate-rich districts are the most heavily liberal state senate districts. According to this calculation, they're in Austin and in two of the most concentrated African American parts of the state. Advantage: Obama.

Clinton will get plenty of support from Latino voters, but they tend to be more spread out and thus will see their votes somewhat diluted in the 31 separate primaries. In order to "win" -- both enough delegates and statewide, you need to organize what amounts to caucus-like campaigns in each of these districts.

The white vote in Texas will probably split, with Obama taking men and Clinton taking women. Though Latinos make up a slightly larger share of the electorate than African Americans, they tend to vote in lower proportions.

Unquote.


V. Its a narrower election map.

Obama underperformed on Feb 5th because he had to spread his resources to 20 states and fight the most established machine in modern history. He was unable to personalize the campaign in every large state. He was still able to narrow the margin and either win or reduce significantly what was a 20 point plus margin in most states.

This time he will be able to focus tremendous resources including; campaign staff, money, campaign appearances, media campaigns on basically two states. He will be able to spend significant time in Texas. Currently Clinton 48 Obama 38.

Obama also has a great deal of momentum that he did not have on Feb 5th, the Hispanic community is not as homogeneously organized in Texas as it is in CA. Anecdotally Texas is thought of a place that has particularly high anti Hillary base and it is not a closed primary.

Hillary will have a real battle in simply getting 51% of the primary vote. If she does this it will still be way behind the expectations that have been laid out. More significantly it is not just likely but probable that her percent of delegates (because of distribution and also the caucus) will be less than her popular vote percent. If she is able to sustain an electoral victory she could well end up losing the delegate battle. The latest DU reports continue to show huge numbers of volunteers being organized weeks ahead of basic steps by Clinton. Its still 3 weeks away but it appears now that Texas will likely mean the end of the Clinton campaign
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ZinZen Donating Member (599 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-24-08 03:12 PM
Response to Reply #13
29. Excellent job. Kick and Rec.
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Bullet1987 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-24-08 01:05 PM
Response to Original message
3. People have thought for a while that the rules would favor
Obama in TX. What's the thing about certain counties having more influence than others because of 2004?
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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-24-08 01:25 PM
Response to Reply #3
16. Anyone interested in a highly professional analysis of what is
happening in Texas on a district by district basis go here:


http://blog.texansforobama.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=891
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Usrename Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-25-08 06:29 AM
Response to Reply #16
65. I think those projections are a little optomistic for the Clinton campaign.
It doesn't account for Obama's momentum and another mathematical necessity. Since all the undecideds are gone, every point that Obama increases will result in an equal and opposite decrease in Clinton's numbers. They will become the inverse of each other. Her support will appear to vaporize over the next week.






Bullet1987 is correct about the voter turnout history being used as a factor in how the delegates are assigned. This is all explained in great detail in anther two-part series here:

http://www.burntorangereport.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=4...
http://www.burntorangereport.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=4...

They do have some precincts that have had remarkable turnout for past elections:

Record number of new voters in Austin, who show up to the polls at much higher numbers than any other area of the state....more specifically, showed up to the polls in the 2004 and 2006 general elections from which the national delegate allotments are derived. In 2004, the highest turnout precinct in all of Travis County was on campus where Precinct 148 had 99.58% turnout (2,366 of 2,376 voters in the 2004 general).


And as we have been told, the campus communities are going for Obama. A win in these high-turnout areas is worth more than a win in a low-turnout area, as far as delegates are concerned.
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TheDoorbellRang Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-24-08 02:15 PM
Response to Reply #3
19. The counties who had more votes for Kerry in 2004
get more delegates in 2008, as I understand it. In 2004, majority of African Americans in Texas voted for Kerry, while Hispanics broke for Bush -- this can only help Obama, tho it seems he's winning over the Hispanic demographic, too.
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jgraz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-24-08 01:06 PM
Response to Original message
4. Thanks for pulling this together
Here's your :kick:
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usregimechange Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-24-08 01:06 PM
Response to Original message
5. "U of Texas sees 23,000 students register in 5 weeks" that type of thing wil turn America blue in 08
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MaineDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-24-08 01:12 PM
Response to Reply #5
11. Our caucuses were filled with new registrants
College towns especially. It's good to see the students getting involved.
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caledesi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-24-08 02:04 PM
Response to Reply #5
18. America IS blue....that's why the repubs don't want a lot voting,. NT
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BearSquirrel2 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-24-08 09:00 PM
Response to Reply #5
48. At this rate ...

At this rate, the election will be a landslide for O'Bama. I have no problem saying this as it looks like McCain is going to have some serious ethics problems come up. Both the kind that adults take seriously (conflicts of interest) and children (lying with unclean women).

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papau Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-25-08 10:02 AM
Response to Reply #5
71. College town voters in the 04 general seemed less of a force
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Laurab Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-24-08 01:07 PM
Response to Original message
7. Here's a kick for you!
and an "R", too!

:kick:
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tammywammy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-24-08 01:08 PM
Response to Original message
8. Good post
Recommended.
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thoughtcrime1984 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-24-08 01:09 PM
Response to Original message
9. Good work as always!
It is appreciated.
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thereismore Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-24-08 01:15 PM
Response to Original message
12. I swear Obama is going to turm TX blue. nt
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Blue_State_Elitist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-24-08 11:46 PM
Response to Reply #12
54. Slow down there.
Let's get those swing states in the bag first. Then we can work on the longshots.
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IDemo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-24-08 01:21 PM
Response to Original message
14. Well, it looks like the state motto will need to be changed:
"Texas -- It's Like a Whole Other Don't Matter"
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texas_indy Donating Member (432 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-24-08 01:22 PM
Response to Original message
15. Excellent post grantcart!
A fantastic Tejano music vid for Obama: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0fd-MVU4vtU



Texas is Obama country! VIVA OBAMA!!
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cottonseed Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-24-08 01:40 PM
Response to Original message
17. Thank you Texas.
These numbers are a wonderful thing. The turnout is fantastic.
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apocalypsehow Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-24-08 02:18 PM
Response to Original message
20. Watch out Lone Star State! You're about to be declared "irrelevant."
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NJSecularist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-24-08 02:20 PM
Response to Original message
21. Turnout is unprecented
It really is amazing.

I'm not sure if the early voting will favor one candidate drastically - in my opinion, it will be about 50/50 or close - but it's encouraging to see the record turnout.

Thanks for the report.
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Scurrilous Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-24-08 02:41 PM
Response to Original message
23. Good job!
K & R :thumbsup:
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alteredstate Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-24-08 02:45 PM
Response to Original message
24. Wow!
Thank you!
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Debi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-24-08 02:47 PM
Response to Original message
25. Does this mean Texas doesn't matter?
:shrug:
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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-24-08 03:08 PM
Response to Reply #25
26. No this time texas counts twice
once in the primary and once in the caucus.
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Debi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-24-08 03:09 PM
Response to Reply #26
27. If Obama prevails in both the primary and the caucus
Will Texas not count twice? :crazy: I'm getting dizzy.
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MindMatter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-24-08 07:40 PM
Response to Reply #27
44. No. The delegates assigned to TX are divided
into a large block that is allocated according to the primary vote (by state Senate district in the proportions that voted for Kerry in 2004 etc) and another smaller block that is assigned based on caucus attendance. The state gets the correct total number of delegates.

Now, an individual can be counted both at the voting booth and in the caucus. That's how the system works, and as long as it is available to all on a fair basis, I don't see a problem with it. it is certainly more representative than a caucus-only state.
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Johnny__Motown Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-24-08 09:58 PM
Response to Reply #27
52. great point, They do everything big in Texas, not counting twice seems about right for them
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SayitAintSo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-24-08 03:11 PM
Response to Original message
28. Does ANYONE worry about cross over voting that WILL cross back
in the general election ?
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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-24-08 03:19 PM
Response to Reply #28
31. There is some but it is going to be dwarfed by the independents
and republicans who are going to cross over in both. I am well aware of all of the conspiracy theories that your thread implies but I have many republican relatives (including my brother a republican officeholder) who are angry about the war and angry about the extra constitutional steps this administration has taken. We don't ask each other who they are voting for but none of them would vote in a primary to game the other parties candidate. I can tell you that many of them will vote for Obama even if they can never say so publicly.
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blogslut Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-24-08 03:29 PM
Response to Reply #28
32. I'm not because I'm a Texan
Ya'll who think that proud Texas republicans are gonna waltz over to the Democratic side just to mess with our vote are crazy. You really don't know Texas at all.
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TexasObserver Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-24-08 05:02 PM
Response to Reply #28
37. No. That's a theme that Clintonites like to ply, but it's not an issue.
Republicans run the state. To cross over, they have to abandon their primary, which means not voting on all the contested Republican primary races.

We will have voters who have voted Republican in the general before, but that's indies who tilt Republican because they haven't had a Democrat they like. There are middle voters who simply go by who they like.
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BearSquirrel2 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-24-08 09:06 PM
Response to Reply #28
49. These are not machievellians ...

When working at primary polls, I sensed a great frustration with MANY voters that they couldn't just choose the candidates that best appealed to them. When people take a ballot, I sincerely believe that there is some candidate on that ballot that thy want to vote for. In fact when given an option people would often ask which ballot xxx candidate was on and that would be the ballot they chose.

I'm sure there are machievellians out there who cross over and choose the weaker candidate on the other side. But given Obama's appeal amongst moderates, I'd be pretty sure that almost everyone crossing for O'Bama will stay with O'Bama.

One thing is for damn sure, people aren't crossing party lines to sincerely vote for Hillary. She has too much baggage from the old days. If there is a weaker candidate in the general election, it is Hillary Clinton. The polls clearly show it and Murdoch hasn't even unleashed his "Faux News: Clinton's Greatest Hits" yet. It is unfair. In the 90s she got slammed without merit. But that left her with high negatives and I'm not sure she'll ever escape them nationally.

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WillyT Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-24-08 03:12 PM
Response to Original message
30. Woo Hoo !!! - K & R !!!
:bounce: :woohoo: :bounce:

:hi:
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catagory5 Donating Member (321 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-24-08 03:38 PM
Response to Reply #30
34. Are you so sure Refugs are breaking for Obama?
Some area Republicans try to help party by faking left, going right
By AMAN BATHEJAStar-Telegram staff writer
Related Content
Some area Republicans try to help party by faking left, going right
Obama aiming for a party awakening
Allan Saxe wants John McCain to be the next president. That's why he voted for Hillary Clinton on Wednesday.

Saxe, a political science professor at the University of Texas at Arlington, is one of an untold number of local Republicans voting in the Democratic primary.

Though many are doing so because they favor a Democratic candidate, some are voting less with their hearts than their heads.

"She'll be easier to defeat," Saxe said, referring to his vote for Clinton.

Early voting started Tuesday, and one trend is abundantly clear: The Democratic race is attracting much more interest than the Republican one. On Tuesday and Wednesday in Tarrant County, 11,336 votes were cast in the Democratic primary, 5,188 in the GOP primary.

Part of the lopsided turnout is likely due to the lopsided nature of the presidential race, where the Democratic front-runners are still neck and neck while many see John McCain as having sewn up the Republican nomination.

Results in recent primaries in other states suggest that Barack Obama is attracting more support from Republicans and independents than Clinton is.

Obama recently coined the term Obamacans for Republicans who have been charmed by his message and charisma. His campaign has cited that crossover effect as a reason he is more electable than Clinton.

On the other hand, prominent Republicans including controversial commentator Ann Coulter have said Clinton is preferable to either McCain or Obama because she is more conservative on key issues such as national security
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mckeown1128 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-24-08 03:36 PM
Response to Original message
33. Fantastic..... come on TX end this race!!! N/T
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TexasObserver Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-24-08 03:40 PM
Response to Original message
35. The Texas Obama Tsunami is for REAL. It's here.
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catagory5 Donating Member (321 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-24-08 03:43 PM
Response to Reply #35
36. Yea I guess not....
Only lived here.........All my life
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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-24-08 06:52 PM
Response to Reply #36
38. where do you live?
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blogslut Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-24-08 07:02 PM
Response to Reply #36
39. So have I
Republicans aren't crossing the aisle to vote for Democrats. You're a damned fool if you believe that. Surely you know a repub or two, being you're a life-long Texan and all..
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texas_indy Donating Member (432 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-24-08 07:09 PM
Response to Reply #39
40. You hit it bulls-eye with your statement. I've been trying to get some
relatives who are right wing republicans to vote for Obama as well but they refuse to vote democrat.

Too many down ticket local races where they want to make sure the local republican nominees will be hard line as well.

The majority of new votes coming for Obama, IMO, are indies and new voters.

Texas is Obama country. VIVA OBAMA!!
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TexasObserver Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-24-08 07:50 PM
Response to Reply #39
47. Well said, and accurate.
A few weeks ago, the Hillary campaign put out two storylines, both of which are rapidly becoming urban legends among her supporters. First, that Texas is her firewall, with her support by Hispanics, and Second, that if she loses, it's because of those Republicans who will supposedly cross over by the hundreds of thousands just to vote against Hillary in the Democratic primary.

Both storylines are fiction.
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dempartisan23 Donating Member (687 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-24-08 07:18 PM
Response to Original message
41. great news!!
i love this. if hillary doesnt win by 30% in texas obama is the victor.
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Radical Activist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-24-08 07:21 PM
Response to Original message
42. Win by expanding the electorate.
It was never the Clinton strategy, but in the long run its the only way to strengthen the party and further progressive issues.
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BearSquirrel2 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-24-08 09:11 PM
Response to Reply #42
50. Democrats suppress votes too ...

The lurking variable is that Democrats have a history of voter suppression as well. Ask blacks who live in Chicago. Crooked Democrats also have a motivation for blocking out voters who will sway their local races and bring in reformers.

It's glad to see a guy like O'Bama who is a "bring em all, I'll still win" type. Hopefully if he wins, we'll get some serious laws against election fraud.

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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-24-08 09:52 PM
Response to Reply #50
51. I think voter suppression by Democrats died out when the machines
died out but republicans have continued to try and refine it.

Anyway regarding Chicago this is a great subject on more recent happy developments

http://www.chicagomag.com/Chicago-Magazine/January-1993...
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Radical Activist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-25-08 12:03 AM
Response to Reply #50
55. I'm sure Obama has a lot to say about that too
since he organized a drive that registered tens of thousands of black voters in Chicago. The fact that he worked for a group like Project Vote is one of the things that always impressed me about him. He has more direct knowledge (and hopefully passion) about voter suppression issues as anyone who has run for President in decades.
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BearSquirrel2 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-25-08 12:40 AM
Response to Reply #55
56. You realize that the Daily Machine ...
You realize that the Daily machine has all the votes they need. So turning out more that could potentially elect insurgents or OMG another Harold Washington (a great man) would be very bad for them.
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Radical Activist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-25-08 01:01 AM
Response to Reply #56
58. Yes
And that's why it made waves when he did his registration drive in '92.
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ellisonz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-25-08 01:10 PM
Response to Reply #56
79. Daley.
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BearSquirrel2 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-25-08 04:06 PM
Response to Reply #79
81. Thanks for the correction ...

I think I type too much about John Stewart ;-)

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ellisonz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-25-08 05:50 PM
Response to Reply #81
83. Not to be a Grammarnazi, but it's a kinda a big one.
Edited on Mon Feb-25-08 05:51 PM by ellisonz
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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-25-08 04:09 PM
Response to Reply #79
82. I was trying to figure out what John Stewart was going fucking up the polls in Chi-town
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mconvente Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-24-08 07:32 PM
Response to Original message
43. This means the repukes are going to be working extra hard to disenfranchise everyone
When the people turn out to vote, they overwhelmingly vote against rethugs - and let us be warned, you know there is gonna be funny business this election season. The writing is on the wall for the neocons and the only way to stop it is bullshit tactics like requiring drivers' licenses and shit like that.
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MindMatter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-24-08 07:45 PM
Response to Reply #43
46. Well, now they have to do it in about 30 states
And they no longer have their machine in charge of Ohio.

Obama's success is raising the ante big time for the GOP.
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mwb970 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-25-08 08:30 AM
Response to Reply #43
67. It's a four-stage process for anti-election Republicans.
(1) Make every effort to prevent citizens from registering to vote in the first place. They want as few people registered as possible.

(2) If people do register, try to keep them from voting. Photo IDs, phone-bank jamming, phony government letters giving the wrong day, whatever it takes. They want as few registered voters to vote as possible.

(3) Use unreliable electronic voting machines with secret inner workings, provided by corporations controlled by Republicans. They want as few votes as possible to be accurately counted.

(4) Refuse to allow recounts in the rare cases where there is a paper trail making it possible. They want as little verification of election results as possible.

So. Prevent registration, prevent voting, prevent proper counting, and then prevent re-counting. Finally, justify all of the cheating by constantly screeching about "voter fraud," which as far as we can tell hardly ever occurs (Ann Coulter aside).

This is the wingnuts' attitude toward what they claim to consider the most important - nay, the only important - aspect of democracy. (Remember Iraq? The moment there was an election the warmongers trumpeted the arrival of "democracy." What a joke.)
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TexasObserver Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-25-08 01:01 PM
Response to Reply #67
78. Well Said. Should be required reading.
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jenmito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-24-08 07:43 PM
Response to Original message
45. K&R! Thanks for all that info.! Looks like early voting could be HIS firewall like it was for
Hillary in CA! :bounce:
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Khaotic Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-24-08 11:30 PM
Response to Original message
53. Makin' It Happen in Texas!
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hogwyld Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-25-08 01:20 PM
Response to Reply #53
80. Hey, you're missing the Kool-Aid pitcher! n/t
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loveangelc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-25-08 12:58 AM
Response to Original message
57. I hope Hillary complains about crossover voting and TX before the primary.
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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-25-08 01:14 AM
Response to Reply #57
60. I hope that Hillary will go to some northern state and just go
go off and start riffing in a highly sarcastic way about how the "heavens will open up" and the "celestial choir comes down"

and that it is then repeated a hundred times on Texas Tv and that half of the Texans feel pissed because they feel that Hillary is

making fun of their evangelical/pentacostal religion and that they hurry down MOnday and vote early, and then the other half feels like Hillary

is making fun of people who live in states with a lot of evangelical/pentacostal folks and feel like Hillary is typecasting them as

being stupid and that they hurry down Monday and vote early.

If the entire state of Texas is found to be in traffic jams in around early voting places I am coming in here and getting my lotto

tickets.



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Eurobabe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-25-08 01:04 AM
Response to Original message
59. Oh but those lazy kids won't vote in November
:sarcasm: :sarcasm: :sarcasm:

They sure as hell will with Obama as the nominee, you can smell the jazz from here. :woohoo:

Pass the koolaid. I love it!
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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-25-08 02:19 AM
Response to Reply #59
62. i have a feeling a lot of kids aren't going to count next tuesday
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List left Donating Member (71 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-25-08 01:59 AM
Response to Original message
61. The kids are smarter than you
The kids are smarter than you think.

:kick:
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Lindsey Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-25-08 02:43 AM
Response to Reply #61
63. My nephew who is/was a Republican (he's 25) is a Christian....
He has changed parties, he is now volunteering for Obama, and, when Obama was in Houston last week he got to shake hands with him. This is a young man (my nephew) who's job is being the Youth Director at a hugh church. He's a saint and always has been. He connects with the Jesus who helped the poor, loves without question , and believes that "blessed are the peacemakers." The past 8 years have made me much more jaded and cynical that normally I would think it was some kind of trick. However, I really think the younger (and others) folks for Obama are for real.
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TexasObserver Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-25-08 05:28 AM
Response to Original message
64. It's the Texas Obama Tsunami, and it reaches the shores in 8 days.
All these new voters are not voting for Hillary. They're voting for Obama.
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workinclasszero Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-25-08 08:34 AM
Response to Reply #64
68. You got that right! GOBAMA!! eom
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southern_belle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-25-08 07:32 AM
Response to Original message
66. Good work! n/t
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beezlebum Donating Member (927 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-25-08 08:57 AM
Response to Original message
69. nice work!
Edited on Mon Feb-25-08 08:57 AM by beezlebum
thanks for the summary-

kick!

gobama!
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redqueen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-25-08 10:29 AM
Response to Original message
72. It's the strangest thing...
All the big party members I've heard from have been staunchly for Clinton...

Should make for an interesting convention.
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Vektor Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-25-08 11:36 AM
Response to Original message
73. That's heavy demand for DemocratIC ballots...
...in Republican districts.

:-) :hug:

Just busting yer gonads.

Thanks for this inspiring update!
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IndianaGreen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-25-08 11:39 AM
Response to Original message
74. I hope and pray for a big Obama victory in votes and in delegates
which hopefully will drive a stake through Hillarycamp and bring their sorry and divisive campaign to an end.
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Catherine Vincent Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-25-08 12:53 PM
Response to Reply #74
76. What a sorry and divisive post. nt
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formercia Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-25-08 12:14 PM
Response to Original message
75. What really counts:
"As of the end of voting Friday, 50,997 voters — 38,214 Democrats and 12,783 Republicans — had been to the polls."

About 3:1 in favor of the Democratic ticket.


The GOP is fucked.
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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-25-08 12:57 PM
Response to Reply #75
77. yes but what about a photograph?
This has turned into a surrealistic media mirage and at the same time the people are simply going and voting in unbelievable numbers and generally speaking the media is completely unaware of the truly historical numbers that are happening in Texas. History is happening and only a few are aware of it.
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