Could Wisconsin Be a Bellwether for Ohio?

[Bullet1987]

I've heard and read that the demographics are roughly the same...and they're in about the same general location around the Great Lakes. Could Wisconsin be a bellweather for things to come in Ohio?

[democrattotheend]

1. Yes, and that's part of why I am nervous

Ohio's demographics are even more favorable to Clinton, and Obama has a lot of ground to make up there. If Clinton pulls off an "upset" tonight in Wisconsin, I don't see how Obama recovers.

[GodlessBiker]

4. Even if he has more delegates?

[Bullet1987]

5. I don't know...

I've also read that there are large Black populations in many of the major cities like Cleveland and Cincinnati.

[CoffeeCat]

13. I just saw a poll this morning on CNN....

...and it had Obama ahead by 13 in Wisconsin.

There's no doubt he's taking Wisconsin.

He has significant momentum there. Wisconsin is a very Progressive state, with many
large universities in the urban areas. The state is known for it's liberal bent, which
favors Obama. The state is also very rural. Wisconsin is more comparable to Iowa, than
it is with Ohio. Wisconsin's minority population is low and the industries in the larger
cities are insurance/financial--as opposed to Ohio--which is more industrial.

There are more blue-collar, "rust belt" concentrations in Ohio, and I would agree that these
demographics favor Hillary Clinton. However, there are more African Americans in the larger Ohio cities,
which will favor Obama.

What happens in Ohio, will depend a great deal on what happens in Hawaii, Wisconsin and Texas.
If Obama beats Clinton handily in Wisconsin and Hawaii, he enters the Texas and Ohio races
with a ten-state winning streak. Clinton's 20-point lead in Texas has eroded to a 3-4 point
lead, according to most polls. Those factors could ding Clinton's lead in Ohio.

It appears that Obama *will* win Wisconsin and Hawaii, and that he's trending upward in Texas,
without even appearing there yet (whereas Clinton has made several appearances). I think this
thing is almost over. If he can take Texas, he'll definitely close the gap in Ohio, and if that
race becomes close--Clinton is done.

[ginnyinWI]

20. Wisconsin

Yeah I'd say we are more like Iowa too, with the exception of our larger cities which give us a higher African American population. And I suspect that our university system is larger and more liberal--but that's just a guess. We have several larger university branches: Eau Claire, La Crosse, Milwaukee, and of course Madison.

I visited Cleveland last summer, and it "seemed" more progressive than Milwaukee to me--but that's antecdotal. I also visited Des Moines last fall, and it seemed as progressive as Madison to me--and that's saying a lot.

[CoffeeCat]

23. Hi neighbor!

:hi:

I was hoping someone from WI would chime in and add more detail.

I'm in Iowa, and I agree with everything you said.

I agree, your larger cities have a more diverse population than Iowa. Our entire state is 96 percent white.

Your university system is probably larger than Iowa's. We have Iowa State University (Ames, 25,000 students), University of
Iowa (Iowa City 22,000 students) and the University of Northern Iowa (Cedar Falls 15,000 students). We also have
many private, liberal arts colleges.

Madison and Iowa City are very similar. Iowa City is ultra Progressive. Interesting to hear your impressions of
Des Moines. It is pretty Progressive, but we don't have a large university in Des Moines. I live in a Des Moines
suburb.

Did you vote yet? I hope you don't have to wait in long lines. I'm sure it's freezing in WI.

It's -1 here today!

[ginnyinWI]

32. hi!

It was +8 degrees and sunny when I went out to vote about an hour and a half ago. There were no lines at 1 p.m.--and anyway, you can't judge anything by my area because it is 60% Republican. We have the highest amount of Repub voters of any county in the state, but we have the 2nd highest amount of Dem voters, too, after Milwaukee county--just not in my neighborhood.

I have an Iowa connection: for this school year my daughter is interning in Ames as a school psychologist, so I've visited. A lucky year for her to be there with all the attention Iowa had earlier. She's seen Obama speak in person four times, and she's seen the other candidates, too. And got to participate in the caucus. Great experience for a 25 year old to have.

My comment about Des Moines came from a visit to the farmer's market and talking to the people there, and also doing a little other shopping. Maybe not as thoroughly progressive as Madison, but I was surprised at how non-conservative it was. Ames was another story--seemed pretty conservative to me. Everyone is nice, but still.

[ShortnFiery]

2. Hope springs eternal. From your keyboard to God's ear ...

:-)

[Staples]

3. Obama will not win Ohio, but he will close the gap considerably

[flor de jasmim]

6. Obama can't win Ohio?

Each day it seems the Clinton campaign shoots itself in the feet a little bit--is it so impossible to think Obama could pull out a win there?

[Bullet1987]

7. I think if Obama can win Texas...Ohio will be irrelevant.

[CoffeeCat]

15. I think Democrats...t

...are hearing all of this bunk about Florida/Michigan and the Super Delegates.
They've got visions of mayhem at the Convention dancing in their heads, and I think
people are deciding to break for Obama--to avoid these messes.

I'm stunned by what has happened in Texas. Clinton had a 20-point lead last week.
She's been campaigning in Texas. Obama hasn't stepped foot in Texas, yet he's
evaporated her 20-point lead down to 2 or 3. He's definitely trending upward
in Texas. It looks like he will win Texas--plus he'll take Wisconsin and Hawaii.

The Texas polls, combined with Hawaii/Wisconsin wins will do damage to Clinton generally,
and I think he takes Ohio as well. She's ahead now by 20+---but she had that in Texas also.

I think this is over---we just have to jump through these hoops.

NO wonder the Clinton campaign is scrambling.

[CorpGovActivist]

17. Watch the Sunday news cycle in Ohio and Texas carefully...

... and be prepared to capitalize on the opportunity presented.

- Dave

[Occam Bandage]

8. I hope so. Also,

it's spelled "bellwether."

[Bullet1987]

9. D'OH

[Barack_America]

10. I think Ohio's it's own beast.

If you look at the MSM's quaint little breakdowns, it might look similar. But you have to remember that different portions of the state have different influences; Midwestern and Southern.

[CorpGovActivist]

16. .

[H2O Man]

11. I think that

Wisconsin may be close. The Clinton campaign needs a win there, or their lead in the "big three" will shrink and possibly disappear. Tonight's results should give us a measure of how effective the new round of dirty campaigning has worked for Senator Clinton.

[CorpGovActivist]

12. Wisconsin is a close approximation, but Ohio is very unique, especially SE Ohio...

... I'll be there later this week, giving press backgrounders on the Clintons and some of their financial dealings. I know Ohio quite well, and - though Wisconsin is a close approximation - it's not a direct predictor.

- Dave

[DemReadingDU]

25. Gov Strickland of Ohio has already endorsed Clinton

I'm sure there will be major campaigning for Clinton in Ohio prior to March 4th.

[CorpGovActivist]

26. *shrug* He may come down with a sudden case of the flu...

... once the Sunday news cycle hits.

Sometimes, the most gracious way to withdraw support is simply not to be seen on stage with the candidate.

- Dave

[DemReadingDU]

27. Hm, is this the news you were referring to

a couple weeks ago? Can't say in Ohio that we have heard anything yet.

[CorpGovActivist]

28. When do you think undecideds will be tuning in? Sunday-ish?

; )

[DemReadingDU]

29. probably, listen to the Sunday talk shows

:)

[CorpGovActivist]

30. Sunday talk shows, maybe the Monday morning radio shows? n/t

[DemReadingDU]

31. I listen to NPR in the morning

[COFoothills]

14. Probably not....

Wisconsin has a strong progressive streak and a long history of voting that way. Ohio tends to be more centrist and has a much more diverse population and demographic.

Wisconsin is closer to Minnesota in it's voting habits than it is to Ohio.

If Obama wins WI big, it will help him in Ohio, but won't necessarily put him over the top.

[ginnyinWI]

21. there are Republicans who will readily cross over

They are not party loyalists and mostly vote their pocketbooks and own self-interest. But they keep re-electing Russ Feingold and David Obey time after time. Feingold got more votes than Kerry in 2004 because of this group. They could just go for Obama because they are PO'd at the GOP.

[scheming daemons]

18. Ohio is heavily Diebolded... Wisconsin, not so much...

Few states are as easy to corrupt as Ohio.... Just ask John Kerry in 2004.


The overwhelming majority of the voting in Ohio is by touch screen without a paper trail.


Ohio's results should ALWAYS be suspect. Lots of dirty pool historically in Ohio. Youngstown, being the midway point between New York and Chicago, has been a mafia haven for decades.

[NJSecularist]

19. Ohio has some similarities to Wisconsin

But as people have said, Wisconsin is more historically progressive than Ohio.

I do think Wisconsin is a bellwether in a way for Ohio in that if Obama wins in WI it'll show that he can finally win the white vote outright in a large primary. He has not been able to do that, but he has came close in a few states.

He doesn't need to win the white vote in Ohio seeing as how he'll see a much larger black turnout in Ohio than Wisconsin, but if he wins the Wisconsin white vote it will show that he has made key strides in Clinton's key base, low to middle income whites, which there is a larger population of in Ohio.

[ORDem]

22. Missouri's a better bellwether for OH, same demographics. n/t

[RDANGELO]

24. A difference I see in Ohio is that the state seems to be very

polarized with the different groups not liking one another.