Anyone who thinks Kerry is dropping out anytime soon...

[WilliamPitt]

...hasn't seen this:

Kerry loans presidential campaign $850,000, says bigger loan to come

SHARON THEIMER, Associated Press Writer Thursday, December 18, 2003

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/news/archive/2003/12/18/politics1726EST0754.DTL

(12-18) 15:37 PST WASHINGTON (AP) --

Democratic hopeful John Kerry has loaned his campaign $850,000 and will mortgage his family's Boston home to come up with more campaign cash, marking the first time a candidate has tapped his personal fortune in the 2004 presidential race.

The Massachusetts senator, once considered the front-runner in the Democratic field, has been struggling to overcome rival Howard Dean's political and financial lead in the race -- even following Dean last month in opting out of the presidential public financing system and its spending limits.

"This is a clear statement by John Kerry -- he is in the race to win the nomination and defeat George Bush," campaign manager Mary Beth Cahill said in a written statement.

Kerry began the year as one of the field's money leaders, raising $7 million from January through March, but his fund raising has fallen off as Dean's has soared. In the quarter that ended Sept. 30, Dean raised $15 million to $4 million for Kerry.

Kerry must come up with any money he loans his campaign without tapping wife Teresa Heinz Kerry's multimillion-dollar Heinz food fortune.

...more...

Good news/Bad news for the campaign. bad news (duh) is that he had to do this at all. Not a sign of strength. Good news is that he means to stay in this thing for a good while longer. Primaries are still a month away, and the numbers are moving. This we call a gamble. Know any other candidates willing to bet their houses on being right for the country?

[pruner]

1. do you know any other candidates that NEED TO mortgage their house…

to finance their candidacy?

[KaraokeKarlton]

4. ouch

n/t

[Patriot_Spear]

11. Hey, that's not fair. If Kerry wants to spend his money it's his right.

No offense, but he's going to HAVE to draw on some of those Heinz millions to oppose the Clark offensive in NH.

[janx]

33. I'm glad you mentioned the Clark offensive.

You can't imagine my delight!

I'm a realist, and I know that Clark is going to pull out special ops surveillance tactics with full value engineering going on at the same time.

His call for fire will come at the optimum moment--make no mistake.

[Patriot_Spear]

37. You think Clark will go 'Black Ops' on Kerry?

Something more menacing than chickenwings? I don't know about that...

[janx]

42. "Black Ops" ? Hell man, he'll go balls-to-the-walls aggressive!

He has prescribed nuclear load!

[A-Schwarzenegger]

43. Is that a campaign or a porno movie?!?

[janx]

44. Sometimes I wonder the very same thing. The same thing.

.

[drfemoe]

63. the 'Clark offensive'

begins in IA, if the ABD has their way. According to one site, Clark organizers are planning to try to 'give' IA to Gep in an effort to 'stop Dean'. Do you think they would repeat that 'favor' for Kerry in NH? Maybe they're planning a way for Clark to get the nomination with no delegates? :shrug:

[Nederland]

68. Not what it seems

Kerry mortgaging his house is not what it seems. In reality, its a clever way of allowing him to use his wife's money without technically using his wife's money. Here's how it works. Teresa Heinz's pays cash for a house, but puts the title in both her and John's name. Then John uses the equity in that house to take out a loan for himself. Presto, you've tapped your wife's money without breaking any rules or restrictions.

[Nederland]

69. Drop out after NH

Not sure what you mean by "soon" Will, but I'll bet if Kerry places third or worse in NH, he'll drop out.

[ALago1]

2. He should pool all those newfound resources into Iowa

A strong second place there could revitalize his campaign.

Well on second thought...maybe not "all" the resources, but a large portion, definitely.

[jmaier]

3. I wonder if he can use

Senate campaign funds to pay back the loan(s).

I can picture a Kerry scenario for IA and NH. Surprising second in IA and then a stronger than currently anticipated second in NH but then I don't see where he goes? He really is looking bad in the Feb 3rd states and he isn't going to have much time to mobilize and mount much of a campaign in SC, AZ, OK. Trying to do it all through ads is going to be very personally expensive.

Good luck to him though.

[pruner]

9. I believe he transferred all the funds out of his Senate war chest…

during the first quarter.

[mmm]

5. No chance

[killbotfactory]

6. I'd like to know how he blew through 20 million dollars...

While most other candidates in the race probably won't raise that much by the end of the primaries.

[Octafish]

48. That's a good question.

It sounds like the $20 million Question. Wasn't that a TV show? Did Kerry blow it on TV?

[flpoljunkie]

71. Actually, I read today that he had $7.8Million in account end of last qtr.

Kerry evidently wants to make sure he has enough money to go all out in Iowa and New Hampshire--giving up campaign financing allows him to spend more in these two crucial states than allowed for those who acccept public matching funds.

[Patriot_Spear]

7. Wow- He's having to bankroll his OWN campaign?

The Clark people are right; Kerry's had it.

Losing to Dean in NH is one thing, but Clark?

[BurtWorm]

8. I hope he spends it wisely.

He desperately needs to.

[kainah]

10. I'm hoping NONE of them drop out

Why do we need to narrow this field? Why do we need to pull together? Why can't we have a robust debate of what's wrong with this country and wrong with our national politics? I find that few people I talk to really are committed to anyone except ANYONE BUT BUSH!! And I think the debate is energizing people. It's giving them space to think for themselves, to hear lots of different subtleties on the solutions to our many problems. When I look around -- in good old Laramie, Wyoming -- it seems as though so many people are just starting to think again. And, once the candidates are set, it will be become pre-packaged pabulum again.

I'm very excited that no one, except Graham whose loss I regret, has dropped out yet & I am glad to see that Kerry has done this. We can't come out of this with a bad nominee (except Holy Joe), so why not celebrate the diversity? Isn't that what we are supposed to be about?

And wouldn't it be fun to have an old-fashioned brokered convention? Imagine the level of interest that would generate! :wow:

[Myra]

15. Nicely said kainah! Stay in the race Kerry, Kucinich, Sharpton, Braun...

And kudos Senator Kerry. You got big time spine.

[oasis]

16. The Dem convention would have some drama to it and not be dismissed as an

infomercial for the Democratic Party.

[revcarol]

12. When I saw the amount he paid caterers at the fund-raisers for the fat

cats, I turned green.He has brought this on himself. I want to see him stay in, because we need a variety of voices, but he's on a downward spiral, IMHO.

[Patriot_Spear]

13. Rich people don't look at money the way you or I do...

In that respect Kerry may be a bit out of touch with working people.

But Kerry is a teriffic guy- we're lucky to have him as a Senator.

[dajabr]

14. That bothered you too?

It was not chump change. Wonder how many average joe contributors got to attend those things?

[sfecap]

17. How many times is this going to get posted?

LOL.

Why would a guy who has raised $20 million need to mortgage his house?

[pruner]

18. here's why…

Sources said Kerry was close to running out of money to finance his campaign. After getting off to a fast start, raising more than $7 million in the first quarter of 2003, sources said he is likely to raise between $1 million and $2 million in the final three months of the year, just when demands for travel, staff and television advertising are escalating rapidly.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A13368-2003Dec18.html

[sleipnir]

19. I'm not sure your info gels with the subject line

I think this is good proof that Kerry's dropping out soon. Let me explain...

If he's that short on cash that he's having to take a mortgage out, it's a very bad sign. It means, as you say, that's he's critically short of money. No one willingly mortgages their house, unless they're in dire financial straits.

Second, how long with $850,000 last? At the rate the candidates are spending from a few articles I've read on advertising, overhead, etc, my guess is a little less than 1 month. So, one could extrapolate that Kerry has about 1 month to get things done and pick up some serious donations or he's done.

Sadly, this means that if Kerry doesn't perform well in NH / IA it's probably over for him, financially. This isn't good news and I fear that it spells the last effort (but a very admirable one!) for Kerry's camp.

To use some poker terms, Kerry's going "all in" with this move, though, I think he's got a pair of aces, it could work, but I think Dean's already got a full house.

[slinkerwink]

20. that's why I also think it's a bad sign

[molly]

23. Kerry isn't dropping out - he's short of "campaign"

cash. Most politicians do not tap into personal funds unless they are backed against a wall. His real estate holdings are extensive - he is contributing these funds to prove his intentions. He will be in it until the very end!

[dajabr]

24. His personal string of real estate is not expensive...

And there's limits on what his wife can co-sign.

virtual subject line edit: "exstensive"

[sleipnir]

45. But that's what I'm saying.

He's backed against a wall, he's running out of dough, and he can't keep on going with out money. This information proves that Kerry won't have much (if any) money left to spend in about one month. Sure, he still might be on some ballots, but his campaigning days are seriously numbered if things don't massivly turn around very, very soon.

To make a point, I don't see Howard Dean or Wesley Clark putting up their homes, because they don't need to. They're getting tons of money to finance their campaigns and will be able to continue actively campaigning with massive amounts of paid staff for the entire primary season. This recent info proves to me that Kerry can't match that or even come close.

I'm not saying he's out yet, but this is his last stand and if it fails, so will his campaign I fear.

[molly]

21. John Kerry will fight with whatever he can

to defeat Bush.

This is a clear statement by John Kerry -- he is in the race to win the nomination and defeat George Bush," campaign manager Mary Beth Cahill said in a written statement.

I will give more very soon!

[dajabr]

26. Are the burgers at the 21 Club as good as they say?

What, you mean average people don't get to dine with him there on his bi-monthly stop-in?

[pruner]

28. I'm sure the bank that's loaning Kerry the $850,000…

will appreciate your contribution.

:)

[Gman]

22. Kerry's got to decide at what point he's throwing good money after bad

Don't get me wrong. I like Kerry. He's a very close second for me right behind Clark. I liked Kerry in '88 when everyone else was jumping so enthusiastically onto the Dukakis bandwagon to hell. (Sound familiar? Hello?). I wish Kerry only the best and I know he wants it bad. He has since '88 and I think he thinks this may be his last shot at it. We'll see what happens. I hope he doesn't hurt his self financially pursuing his dream.

[jmaier]

25. He's going

to be out of the money -- Clark is smashing him in fundraising in 4th quarter and also has about $3.7m in matching funds coming shortly. Even Gep, Lieberman & Edwards can expect in $3m range in matching funds by end of January, I think.

If it's true that he raised so little in the 4th qtr, he's going to have to dig dip into personal pockets to stay in the race through Super Tuesday.

[dajabr]

29. Is that how Clark will make up for Kerry's latest surge...

In NH?

[jmaier]

31. I'm not sure I understand the question?

I'm pointing out that Clark is going to have a serious cash advantage and cash is going to be all important in the less hands-on meet the voter states of the Feb 3rd primary. You will need ads.

I wasn't referring to NH performance at all. I think Kerry has a very good chance of a solid #2 in NH.

[dajabr]

35. Kerry just had a nice bounce in the latest ARG poll...

Clark slipped.

So, I'm wondering if fundraising will be the key to Clark closing the gap for #2 in NH, since #3 probably won't give him the boost he's looking for going in to SC?

[molly]

30. Personal pockets are VERY deep

I'm not concerned about his funding.

[mb7588a]

58. Successful Senators can afford to bankrupt themselves

there is a gold mine awaiting them in the private sector.

[Redneck Socialist]

27. He has stopped campaigning...

...virtually everywhere except IA and NH. This coupled no $ = poor bastard. I feel for him, he's a great Senator but his campaign never had any traction. Barring some miracle he is done after NH.

[Patriot_Spear]

32. Not if he knocks out Clark...

I think that would turn it around.

[jmaier]

34. Assuming a strong

NH showing on Kerry's part he'll have one week to turn it around in ANY of the Feb 3 states. He'd have to beat Dean in NH for a big enough bounce to make that happen IMO.

[janx]

39. HU-AH. "Knocks out Clark" ?

We could only find out by grabbing the bull by the seeds and doing some serious damage assessment and control.

[Patriot_Spear]

41. At Ease there Janx- Kerry has a good chance of beating Clark.

They're both great candidates.

[Redneck Socialist]

51. If Clark finishes third in NH...

...It won't knock him out because 1) his fundraising picture is improving and 2) he has been actively campaigning in several super tuesday states. If Kerry on the other hand finishes third in NH he has no where to go but down and eventually out. He is risking it all on NH and IA. If that doesn't work he will have no resources left to continue the fight.

[Kanola]

36. Kerry is going to be up aganist not only Dean

but Clark. Especially in NH. Kerry's campaign coming in third after Clark is not good. Plus, Clark has some grassroots support raising some cash.

[LuminousX]

40. Kerry isn't down and out, but he has taken a few hard hits in the jaw

I do hope he pulls a Rocky and brings the challenge. A Clark Dean race isn't very interesting to me. A Kerry Dean race is.

[A-Schwarzenegger]

38. He should run as the New Broke Underdog.

Everybody in America loves the underdog.
Selling his house is a good start. He could
start campaigning along the New Hampshire
Turnpike with a sign like "Will be your President
for Spare Change". I saw him last night on TV
talking about how his Mom and Dad never
came to any of his football games when he was
in the orphanage. If I wasn't voting for Edward
Johnson I would vote for John Kerry because he
is breaking my heart and tearing it all apart.

[molly]

46. Just curious - who is your candidate?

[A-Schwarzenegger]

47. Edward Johnson.

[tsipple]

49. What is the history of self-financed presidential campaigns?

I know Steve Forbes was largely self-financed, and I don't think he won any primaries or caucuses.

Ross Perot might be another such candidate, although he raised quite a bit of money from supporters.

Does anybody know?

[drfemoe]

65. isn't LaRouche

a perennial self funded candidate?

[imhotep]

50. Good

I hope he stays in till the end....

[Dubyawatchers]

52. I heard that

I heard that the clark campaign has a new cadence to march to

Kerry, Kerry, goin broke,
He'll be out before the vote,
Sound off ....

[dkf]

53. How in the world is Kerry going to survive? He declined matching

funds too, didn't he?

I think maybe that was a bad idea.

[zulchzulu]

54. Kerry ain't dropping out

His numbers are doing well in Iowa and New Hampshire. Dean is going to sink.

I'm almost to the point of betting that Kerry will win Iowa. If that happens, watch all hell break loose for Dean's campaign.

I'm rolling the dice that Dean will have at least one more gaffe that will hit the campaign hard and feed the opposition with plenty of red meat.

With Dean, that's one thing you can count on...him running his mouth off and having to have Trippi put out the fires.

[JustJoe]

55. Wasn't Kerry the leading candidate a year or less ago?

What an amazing race.

The backers of the guy who was leading
a year ago are now forced to argue that
he's not dropping out--after he borrows
on his house. And this before A SINGLE VOTE
in A SINGLE PRIMARY has been cast. What the?

[Paragon]

56. Good thing for him interest rates are low.

Ba-dump-bump.

Thank you, I'll be here all week. Tip your waitress.

[Egnever]

57. Think he is starting to regret that decision to forgoe matching funds?

more and more that is looking like a really bad move on his part.

[stickdog]

59. So sad to see Kerry going down with the ship all a-loan. (nm)

[Hep]

60. Kerry is beholden to Kerry

I'd hate to see him out on the street.

[CMT]

61. No I expect him to be in this thru Iowa and NH

However, if he comes in third or less in Iowa and loses NH by a large margin or comes in third--he will likely drop out after NH. If he does win NH obviously he goes on. However, I don't really see any strong Kerry states out there at this time. If Dean fades maybe this will change.

[drfemoe]

62. Balanced Budget?

Gee I know a president who is willing to bet the futures of his nation's children on being able to rule the world.

So Kerry knows how to borrow money. That really does qualify him to step into GW's position!!!

I'm gonna vote for the guy who knows how to balance budgets and cut debt, not run up new debt trying to save his hide.

[Padraig18]

64. What in the world is he *doing* with his money???

By my calculations, he's burned through about $20 million, and seems to have precious little to show for it. :shrug:

[goobergunch]

66. What will be the first state he wins?

I can't think of any offhand. :shrug:

[NicoleM]

67. A gamble?

A gamble would be if *I* mortgaged my house to run for president. Because unless I won, I would be homeless. Living out of the car. If Kerry bets and loses, either 1) he'll pay back the mortgage and will have no real difficulty doing so, 2) Teresa will pay back the mortgage and never miss the money, or 3) they'll buy a new house.

[DeanIsAPitbull]

70. Kerry needs to drop out

Also Lieberman, Kucinich, Braun and Sharpton.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

72. Great idea

I'll forward it to the campaign(s) pronto.

[DeanIsAPitbull]

73. To me, Kerry, Lieberman et al

are doing nothing but muddy the field and causing infighting. They aren't being very constructive. I hope most of them drop out after Iowa or NH. The party needs to appear strong right now.