Hillary ran the primaries like a general election (e.g. winner take all)

[dkf]

This was her miscalculation.

Good analysis at Mydd

http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/2/13/18513/4342

Leaving Delegates on the Table: Why Clinton Might Lose

by psericks, Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 06:05:13 PM EST

One unusual aspect of Super Tuesday that seems to have gone unnoticed is that despite the national popular vote splitting so evenly at 48%-48%, very few of the state primaries and caucuses were actually all that close at all.

Of 22 Democratic primaries and caucuses, only six were decided by a margin of ten points or less, and only three were actually close, coming within a margin of five points or less. Why? Because most of these states simply weren't even contested. The Clinton campaign had television ads running in only half the February 5th states, and there were numerous states in which they didn't bother to run an active field campaign.

The Clinton campaign made clear that it planned to win Super Tuesday based on a tight four-state strategy, focusing on California, New York, New Jersey, and Arkansas, which, they frequently cited, made up 40% of the delegates assigned --- a strange strategy in a system that isn't winner-take-all. Clinton's name recognition and her general support level across the country would have to hold her up in the vast swaths of the country that she had already conceded.

This strategy of focusing hard on winning the biggest states turned out to be one of this campaign season's great blunders, and it is one that the Clinton campaign seems to make repeatedly. The Obama campaign has repeatedly found ways to get ahead in the delegate count, out-organizing rural areas of Nevada to win an extra delegate while the Clinton campaign won Clark County, and then repeating that success to run a field campaign across 22 states that kept the delegate count close in states Clinton won and racked up the delegates in states Clinton did not bother to contest.

more

[TexasObserver]

1. They built a Maginot Line and got flanked badly.

[MagsDem]

6. You realize there are 492 delegates at stake in TX, OH, and PA

And she is leading in all three state's polls by a substantial margin, right?

[TAWS]

Delegates

Obama will come out with more delegates in Texas for two reasons
1. Black districts are awarded more delegates than Hispanic ones
2. A third of Texas' delegates are awarded through a caucus after voting.

[TexasObserver]

14. Yes. Texas: 126 delegates selected in the primary. 67 at the June convention.

35 superdelegates who will split down the middle, roughly.

[Drunken Irishman]

7. Polls, polls, polls.

In the only poll I can find of Texas, he's down 10. That poll was taken late last month, prior to Obama gaining momentum. However, the same company ran a poll earlier in the month and Obama was down 18. So in less than a month, he made up 8 points. It's entirely possible Obama not only leads in Texas, but has a big lead there right now.

But regardless, Hillary needs to not only win Ohio and Texas, but she needs to win them by 15+ points, or she's done. That most likely won't happen and I think even Hillary fans can concede this.

[TexasObserver]

16. He was down 30 points 75 days ago. Down 20 points 45 days ago. Down 10 points 2 weeks ago.

Obama will beat Hillary in Texas. He's already in front, but the Hilly's don't know it yet.

[dkf]

8. I can't even find recent polls...

They are all January at best.

[Muttocracy]

11. one feb one for Ohio

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/oh/ohio_democratic_primary-263.html

[Drunken Irishman]

15. So in less than a month Obama went from 19 to 39.

And we still have a few weeks until Ohio.

Wow.

[Muttocracy]

24. polls haven't been very informative until they're too late to be useful :-)

[FrenchieCat]

2. Just for this fucked up strategy from the "ready from Day One" candidate

should eliminate her.

If Obama lost 8 states in the row, that guy would be a goner.

Double standards for the elites.

Obama is expected to be twice as good as this mistake after mistake 35 years of experience candidate.

Sad.

Guess that's how Bush got 8 years. First he had to prove how stupid he was. :eyes:

[MagsDem]

5. Considering the press has favored him from day one,,,,

She wouldn't be this close if she wasn't a damn good candidate. It's still a virtual tie, so I wouldn't start dancing on her grave just yet.

[SoCalDem]

13. Not the press I saw... They assumed she would win..last year

...in fact while she was running for re-election to the senate they all commented on the big margin she was working on so that she would be inevitable, should she choose to run.. It was all so "wink-wink-nod-nod"..all the talk of her huge "war-chest" for her senate seat that was in no danger of being taken away.. They talked for months about all that extra money she had "banked' for her presidential bid..

Hell when she ran the FIRST time, it was openly discussed that it was her stepping stone to the presidency..and how she was a shoo-in..

Her committee appointments were all the talk too..about how she was building her resume', gaining credibility for her presidential run,.,

She was the presumed nominee for at least two years, from what I saw on tv since she first won..

I recall all the talk about how wonderful it was going to be when she and Rudy were pitted against each other as their parties' nominees..

[TexasObserver]

17. Like a Royal who thought she was going to be Queen, she claimed the throne from day one.

But a funny thing happened on the way to the coronation.

[Muttocracy]

3. it's interesting how the pattern is different with GOP

because of their winner-take-all states. More of them stayed around a little longer, and then suddenly, McCain was too far ahead for the others to catch.

[dkf]

9. Just my point...she has run the wrong type of race.

Only now is she catching on.

It is scary because you'd think a pro would know the ins and outs and plan better.

I'm not saying she can't win, just that for someone with "experience" she sure has a learning curve.

[sandnsea]

12. Well if that loser Kerry could make it happen

That had to be what she was thinking, I saw several incidents where she out and out copied Kerry's campaign. The helicopter for one, but what made it cool was Kerry was flying his. That was her biggest mistake, misunderstanding the support John Kerry had. She also can't quite believe that most Democrats have deep respect and affection for him. And no matter how anyone feels about Hillary, the fact that half the country hates her is never far from anybody's mind. She had the opportunity to run a campaign like Obama's for the pure fact the country needed it, and she didn't have the political sensibility to see it.

[MagsDem]

4. Don't get cocky -- she hasn't lost yet

It's still damn close.

[stevietheman]

10. Yes, she has. Her chances of catching up to Obama are slim and none. n/t

n/t

[jackson_dem]

18. You can "hope" that but it isn't the case

Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and North Carolina have yet to vote.

[stevietheman]

19. All going to Obama. The writing is on all the walls. n/t

n/t

[XemaSab]

23. Obama's going to EAT HER LUNCH in North Carolina

:P

[virgdem]

20. This is the standard DLC model..

of running a campaign. They choose certain states and leave the rest out in the cold. You cannot win 50 states without a 50 state strategy. Have they learned nothing from what Howard Dean did in 2006 to help the Dems win the election? What I fear most is that if Hillary is our nominee, she will lose the election due to the elimination of all of the states that they deem unnecessary to win the race. It is a ill considered strategy from the get go.

[johnnydrama]

21. I knew Dean was right

I hadn't heard much about the 50 state strategy before 2006, but I knew Dean was right when a few Republicans in huge Republican district's like Foley & Delay had scandals, and there was a Democrat in the race ready to run.

Normally there wouldn't have even been a contender in Delay's district.

[XemaSab]

22. Which is exactly why she should not be our candidate for teh GE.

This is the strategy that lost us the GE in 2000 and 2004.