What are the latest polls for Ohio, Pennsylvania and Texas?

[Ken Burch]

It looks like those states are gonna be HRC's last stand, and her supporters have been acting like it goes without saying that she'll take 'em going away?

But you'd think the general Obamania would begin to shake that up.

Can anybody post the newest polls from those states?

[MADem]

1. Do a little googling for us, why doncha? nt

[joshcryer]

2. SUSA has new OH polls. HRC 56 BHO 39.

http://www.surveyusa.com/electionpolls.aspx

[thereismore]

4. Close, awfully close. She used to be way ahead. nt

[LisaL]

5. Double digit lead is close?

[thereismore]

13. Jocularity got the better of me. Still in a good mood. nt

[joshcryer]

6. He'll bridge it by another 10% before now and then. Possibly even 20%.

[Sara Bradi]

9. there are 3 weeks to Ohio, in Barack's calender that is

practically eternity. He will easily close the gap in Ohio, he might even win.

Probably less so in PA and even less so in Texas, except the urban areas.

[joshcryer]

10. Agreed. I think she will drop out after March 5th.

[Life Long Dem]

11. Really. Super Tuesday seems ages ago, yet it's one week ago.

[Ellipsis]

3. Here ya go

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/

Texas

http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/texas.html



Ohio

http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/ohio.html



Pennsylvania

http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/pennsylvania.html



.

[rainbow4321]

7. Not a poll but...

Apparently some guy put out a flyer that led people to believe that Obama would be at some coffee shop in Texas... 3,000 people signed up to "see him". Problem: They guy worded it incorrectly, he meant come show support for Obama "because he is coming to Texas"--which he IS at some point, but not to that coffee shop!

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/news/politics/national/stories/021308dnmetobamacedarhill.b6b59c7c.html


Thousands of North Texans rushed to sign up to see Barack Obama this weekend. The only problem? Mr. Obama won't be there.

By 6 p.m. Tuesday, nearly 3,000 people signed up for a meet-and-greet at the tiny White Rhino Coffee House. But it's just a gathering of supporters; the candidate is not scheduled to attend.

Between now and the March 4 primary, Obama supporters have "meet-ups" scheduled for throughout the area. There was an event Tuesday night at Gilley's in Dallas and a rally and parade planned in Fair Park on Sunday.

Obama spokesman Josh Earnest said Tuesday's mix-up was indicative of Mr. Obama's strong support in Texas. And he said the candidate would come to the state before the vote.

[Barack_America]

8. Wow.

:wow:

[Ken Burch]

20. I hope they all bought coffee before they left. Would've been the least they could do.

The manager musta FREAKED!

[AtomicKitten]

12. Time is on Obama's side.

[TexasObserver]

15. November, he was 30 points back. December 20 points back. January 10 points back.

Obama has overtaken Hillary in Texas. The next polls out will show it virtually tied, and him trending to a victory.

[AtomicKitten]

19. Wow, Texas?! That's most unexpected!

He has plenty of time to work his magic in Ohio and Pennsylvania.

He's been on one hell of an uphill trajectory!

[TexasObserver]

21. I think Obama will win Wisconsin and Hawaii next week, win Vermont, RI, and Texas March 4th

Not sure about Ohio. She could win Ohio, but even so, it's not nearly enough to save her.

[AtomicKitten]

23. Just winning one of the biggies will put a monkeywrench in her master plan

and he's got the time and cash to do it

w00t

[LadyVT]

14. Ohio, Texas, Penn most recent poll data here

Ohio: 2/10-2/11/08: Clinton 56%, Obama 39% (Edwards not included)
Texas: 1/30-1/31: Clinton 48%; Obama 38% (Edwards not included)
Penn: 1/8-1./14: Clinton 40%; Obama 20% (Edwards 11%)

...and holding steady

[Ken Burch]

16. First two of those show HRC's lead clearly sliding

and the PA poll is over a month old and thus no longer reflects current political reality in the state.

[LadyVT]

27. Wait until the debates... and more McCain attacks...

[Ichingcarpenter]

17. I worry about OHIO for any candidate

Please see this post and give it a bump if you think it is warranted.


http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=497314&mesg_id=497314

[grantcart]

18. Texas may not count after all

http://ivrpolls.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=33&Itemid=1

November and December polls both gave Hillary Clinton a hefty 51% to 17% lead over Barack Obama, but that has changed considerably over the last two polls. Current results give her just a ten point lead over her main rival, 48% to 38%. Mike Gravel received 3% while 12% were undecided. Much of Obama's increase has come from his increase in support among Latinos. In December, Clinton had a 70 to 7 lead in this group. The January 10 poll was 63-18. In this poll, the margin was down to 60-29. That is still a wide margin, but 2-1 is a lot different from 10-1. Edwards was at 5% among Latinos in the January 10 poll, so Obama's gain cannot be completely explained by his departure. There is a significant gender gap as Latino men under 60 were more likely to support Obama while Latinas under 60 gave Clinton large margins. Clinton easily led both sides of the 60+ group.

[TexasObserver]

22. And that data is two weeks old, and outdated. He's even or ahead now.

He's got young Hispanics, and she's got really old Hispanics. Middle aged break both ways, and are in play. The Hispanic vote is very young, because so many of the Hispanic voters are under 30.

With Blacks breaking 80% for Obama, and whites splitting, he looks to win in Texas by 5-15 points.

[catagory5]

24. "he looks to win in Texas by 5-15 points."

about the silliest comment of the night. my oh my.

Go to bed its late

[grantcart]

25. I think it is unreasonable to assume that he can beat her by more than 15 points

[Ken Burch]

26. And would he actually NEED to?

n/t.

[TexasObserver]

28. Hillary has to win Texas big for it to do her any good, but a LOSS will put her down.

If she loses Texas by one vote, she's finished.

She's probably finished even if she wins it by one vote, but she has to win it by at least 10% to have any position to claim she's alive and has a chance to turn it around.

She won't get it.

Also, only 126 of the 228 Texas delegates get decided on March 4th. 67 more will be chosen in June, at the convention, and then there's the 35 ex officio delegates, the superdelegates.

In all probability, when the dust settles on March 4th, Obama will have maybe 70 of the 126 delegates, and Hillary will have 56. The best that Hillary could possibly do, even if she won South Texas big, is less than a 15 delegate bump.
------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------

Tuesday 4 March 2008: Tier 1. 126 of 228 delegates to the Democratic National Convention are allocated to presidential contenders based on the results of the voting in today's Texas Presidential Primary. A mandatory 15 percent threshold is required in order for a presidential contender to be allocated National Convention delegates at the senatorial district level.
Texas has 127 district delegates apportioned among its 31 STATE SENATORIAL DISTRICTS as follows: (SD= "Senatorial District")
• 126 district delegates are to be allocated proportionally to presidential contenders based on the primary results in each of the State's 31 state senatorial districts (each senatorial district being assigned 2 to 7 National Convention delegates based on how well each district had supported the Democratic nominee for President in 2000 and Governor in 2002).
• SD 31: 2 delegates
• SDs 6, 7, 8, 9, 24, 28: 3 delegates each
• SDs 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 11, 12, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 22, 25, 27, 29, 30: 4 delegates each
• SDs 10, 20, 21, 26: 5 delegates each
• SDs 14, 23: 6 delegates each
• SD 13: 7 delegates
In addition, precinct conventions are to be convened no earlier than 7:15 P.M. local time the day of the presidential primary (the polls will have closed in Texas at 7 P.M.) to begin the process of choosing the delegates to County and Senate District Conventions.

Saturday 29 March 2008: Tier 2. County and Senate District Conventions select delegates to State Convention.

Friday 6 June - Saturday 7 June 2008: Tier 3. State Convention. The State Convention will choose the remaining 67 pledged delegates. A mandatory 15 percent threshold is required in order for a presidential contender to be allocated National Convention delegates at the statewide level.
• 67 delegates are to be allocated to presidential contenders based on the presidential preference of the delegates at the State Convention as a whole.
• 42 at-large National Convention delegates
• 25 Pledged PLEOs
The remaining 35 National Convention delegates consist of
• 32 Unpledged PLEO delegates:
• 17 Democratic National Committee members.
• 13 Members of Congress (0 Senators and 13 Representatives).
• 0 Governors.
• 2 Distinguished Party Leaders (former House Speaker James C. Wright, Jr., former DNC chairman Robert Schwarz "Bob" Strauss).
• 3 Unpledged "add-on"s (elected at the state convention).
These 35 delegates and will go to the Democratic National Convention officially "Unpledged".

Texas Senatorial Districts: http://www.tlc.state.tx.us/redist/pdf/c1440/map.pdf