Let's get something clear here: The dems WILL win the general election.

[Dark]

Period.

Even with John McCain running. Why?

He isn't liked by his base.

And all the Dem has to do is run this picture:



with all the lovely quotes that John McCain said supporting George Bush.

Hell, here's a slogan: "A vote for McCain is a vote for the same."

It's THAT easy. Every debate, just point out to the American people "Hey, you want four more years of George W., vote for McCain. You want to leave the Bush policy, vote for me."

No matter what he says, McCain will lose the base (denounce Bush) or the Independents (support Bush).

The ONLY way to lose this election is to use the superdelegates to circumvent the will of the voters. Which won't happen. The superdelegates are up for election too, they don't want to lose.

So stop this mopey "we won't win if we pick ..." crap. We're going to win. What the candidate will decide is simply the margins, and the coattails.

In Other Words: cheer up. We're about to clean house.

[LisaM]

1. I agree. I think he is very beatable

and I believe Hillary has a solid chance.

The other little photo op would be a picture of Bush and McCain eating cake while New Orleans drowned.

[Dark]

3. True. It'll be a landslide.

I just hate the vitriol coming from both sides. We are going to win. We're going to win big. So, we should be discussing our candidates' merit and policy. They're similar, but not the same.

We shouldn't be discussing the BS that usually shows up here.

[cboy4]

2. I think the New England Patriots thought they were about

to "clean house."

It would be a devastating mistake for Democrats to believe it will be a cake walk in November.

Believe me.

[Dark]

4. Honey, you're comparing apples and oranges.

People HATE Bush. They hate him. We could run a sleep deprived gorilla that flings feces at the audience during the debates and we'd still get 55 percent of the vote.

Go over to Free Republic. The republican base has resigned to either Hillary or Barack being president. They've written off 2008. A few are trying to rally the fleet, but for the most part they've got nothing.

I'm not being overconfident. All polls project a Democratic landslide.

[cboy4]

13. Honey? lol....Anyway, I don't believe it. I think Republicans

will come together in November because they want a Republican in the White House.

People don't like Bush, but Bush isn't running again.

But that's fine, be optimistic in the setting of Democrats.

Being positive is good.

Just don't work as a political strategist.

Overconfidence can lead to crushing results.

[Dark]

24. I'm not saying the base shouldn't campaign. There are plenty of lower level dems

who need the boost.

But to act like this is a nail biter of an election is foolish.

That's why Dems are coming out 2 to 1 and the Dems haven't been having fundraising issues similar to the republicans.

People want the Dems in control.

[cboy4]

40. Are you saying the 2006 Senate races were not

nail biters?

Come on.

Many of those races came down in our favor late in the evening.

We had to wait on Virginia and Montana because it was so close.

And let's be honest, the only reason we narrowly won is because of the war.

I mean, I like the Democratic Kool-Aid too, but you're past the legal limit.

We haven't won the election.

And anyone who stops fighting is dead weight on our side.

We need people working hard until the last hour. Not sleeping on the couch.

[Dark]

43. Yes, but there were some elections that were beyond debate.

This time, it's the presidetial one.

However, I agree we need people working nonstop to get Senators and reps the win.

But the presidency is in the bag, no matter what.

[bicentennial_baby]

6. Agreed

Plus, the Repukes will have more time to coalesce around McCain than the Dems will around either Clinton or Obama. Imho.

:)

[cboy4]

16. Yea they'll all rally around McCain like we'll rally

around ours --

And you're right...they're being given a head start.

[bicentennial_baby]

27. Exactly...

It worries me, a bit.

[MercutioATC]

5. A problem with that scenario:

Most Republicans hate HRC with such a fervor that they would vote for Charles Manson before letting her win. I'd estimate that 20% of the Democratic party and 50% of Independents have a poor enough opinion of her that they would either stay home or vote for McCain.

The problem is her 47% negative number. People just don't like her...so she'll actually mobilize MORE Repubs to vote just to ensure she loses.


I don't think that Obama has that weakness, and he appears to have more appeal to southern voters....something this party desperately needs.

[Dark]

8. Yea, but the independents hate Bush more than they hate her.

They'd just stay home, worst case scenario.

McCain's a sacrificial lamb. That's why Romney bowed out -- he knew this election was a gonner.

[MercutioATC]

10. ...and if Bush was running, that would be a consideration.

The McCain = Bush thing works better here in Demland than it does on the right side of the tracks. They really dislike McCain, but they hate HRC.

[Dark]

17. They hate Hillary, but they're still disillusioned.

Like we were after the 2004 elections. Could you imagine trying to run a campaign with your side having the energy we had in December 2004?

It would have been a landslide for the Republicans.

Again, McCain = Bush will work. Obama's guaranteed the win if he gets the nomination, and Hillary's attack machine will destroy McCain for his love of Bush.

[MercutioATC]

22. Hey, you may be right...

I just don't think it's as much of a sure thing as the OP states, especially with HRC as the candidate.

[Dark]

26. The presidency is a sure thing.

But, there are lower level races that will need campaigning. Senate, house, and the state level. We need the base for that.

But the the whole "America won't elect a black man" or "America won't elect a Clinton" thing has gotten old. America would elect a pet rock as long as it doesn't have a R- after its name.

[MercutioATC]

29. I'm not as confident as you, but I hope you're right.

In your context, though, wouldn't Obama provide better coattails than HRC?

[Dark]

32. Yes, and I said that in the original post.

I never said they're identical. But the Whitehouse is ours in 2009.

We just have to decide the number of seats we want to take in addition to that.

[ORDem]

9. It's really worse than that...

Everyone on DU seems so focused on who will be POTUS. What's really more important, IMHO, is that we get fillibuster proof majorities in the Senate and the House. Without those, even the Dem is going to have a hard time putting up with GOP obstructionism. If that Dem is Hillary, it will be even worse due to the ill-founded GOP hatred of her. Furthermore, if she's the nominee, IMHO, she won't help those Dem. Senate and House candidates down the ticket as much as Obama will. Could be the Dems come out in equal numbers regardless if it's HRC or Obama, but I'd bet 10 bucks that more GOP'rs will come out if Hillary's the GE candidate.

Look, the GOP doesn't have gay marriage or some other red herring this year to energize their base. Why not let a sleeping dog lie?

[Dark]

21. You make a good point.

You're kind of right about the filibuster. There are some republicans who know that their districts would never toss them out.

But when we deliver a landslide again, I think some republicans will realize that Bush's policies aren't winning them any friends. Currently, experts are prognosticating that we'll get up to 57 seats in the Senate.

And that's while the GOP base is semi-united behind McCain.

And that's while the Dems are deeply divided over the nominee.

And that's while the Dems are outfundraising the Republicans

And that's while the Dems have (supposedly) accomplished nothing.

We're going to cream the Republicans.

Don't get me wrong, I don't want us sitting back. Campaigning will only help us get more seats. And there are still many purple districts.

But people have had it with the Republicans.

[calico1]

7. Please, let's not start with the cakewalk

and landslide talk again.

John McCain may not be loved by the Conservative base but the Moderates like him and so do a lot of Independents. I know several who like him and are considering voting for him. True or not, a lot of people still view him as "Moderate."

No matter who wins the Democratic nomination there will be a lot of unhappy Democrats and the winner will have to work hard to gain their support. It should not be taken for granted. There will need to be a lot of healing.

It's February. A lot can happen from here to then. Hopefully it will be good for us but we shouldn't be getting overly confident.

Remember, the Giants weren't supposed to have a snowball's chance in Hell to beat the Patriots. Nothing should be taken for granted.

[whatchamacallit]

11. 5:1 he'll stroke-out during one of the debates

Sorry, kinda low even for my standards

[Dark]

12. In the debate, all he/she has to do is remind people that it's the republicans that

got us into this mess, and that John McCain went all lovey-dovey on Bush.

He wins the debates. McCain can't do crap about it.

[KaryninMiami]

14. Not so fast- we had a landslide in 06- and barely squeaked by because

of rigged machines and massive disenfranchisement. We also had a pretty substantial win in 2004 but for the same reasons-- we wound up with 4 more years of the Bush crime family. If you think they are going to simply give up their power- in spite of their overall dislike for McCain (watch and see who they put in as VP- it will be someone they like and can control). This will not be easy regardless of whomever our candidate is- never forget that. We have a huge battle ahead- maybe slightly less with Obama then Hillary because of how much baggage and negativity she brings with her- but either way, this is going to be a long, tough fight to the finish.

[Dark]

19. The reason we barely squeaked by was because we had lost so many seats before that.

We're still catching up.

As for VP, the one thing I still respect McCain for his independence. He will pick the person he wants, and no other.

[KaryninMiami]

31. No- sorry I disagree. The exit polls shows that we would have won big time

We didn't. When the exit polls differ from the actual results, we know there was some type of tampering going on. The exit polls in 06 showed a LANDSLIDE and we won by one percentage overall- two percent in some areas. That's because of rigged machines and disenfranchisement of thousands of voters with names purged illegally, machines not distributed fairly, provisional ballots not counted as they were supposed to be counted, etc.

[Dark]

33. True, but exit polls have their own problems.

They don't poll everyone who comes out of the booth. They only poll specific areas that gauge the swing of the state.

There are other issues too, and I don't want to get into a debate about the reliability of voting machines. Suffice to say, if they couldn't swing 2006, they can't swing 2008.

[Shine]

15. I like the way you think, Dark!

:applause: :thumbsup:

[Dark]

30. Thanks. I'm just so tired of the pessimistic attitude here.

We're on the cusp of a Dem president, a big dem majority in the Senate, an even bigger dem majority in the House, an even bigger(er) dem majority among the state levels, and people here are saying it's doomsday.

Relax. We are entering a new golden era.

[Shine]

38. I'm totally on the same page.

The melodrama and acrimony between the two camps has gotten a bit much, lately.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

18. Don't worry they (GOP) are all pals and made up!

Rove will make sure McCain will be viable.

Why they would pick that old fossil I don't know!

[abluelady]

20. It Seems to Me

that the Dem candidate could save lots of money by making only one TV Commercial showing them hugging. I really believe as well as the Repukes coming out, the Dems will come out in even higher numbers. There is no way in hell the US can stand another Repuke in power. But then again I couldn't believe in 2004 Bush was elected!

[DiamondJay]

23. it would only be like us if we lost this year

but this year we have the wind at our back AND the energy, unlike in 04 where we were supposed to lose big time originally. then it turned around, but Kerry fucked it up.

[Dark]

34. Yea, but Kerry had the sense of a boulder.

He didn't respond to the swiftboating for a month. that's what lost him the election

[CK_John]

25. IMO. either candidate will lose 50% of their base, to not voting, Bloomberg if he gets in, or to

McCain. We are on very thin ice.

[Dark]

28. I doubt it. The base may become temporarily disillusioned. But we all want a dem in power

in Jan. 2009. We'll come together.

[CK_John]

36. I hope your right, but in my town of 3000 there is not one sign for either candidate, not one. I

put out a Hillary sign in Sept and it lasted 2 days.

[Dark]

37. What part of New York are you in.

Also, New York is solidly Dem. It will go blue, no matter what.

[mirrera]

35. 5000 Republicans vs 45000 Dems turn-out in Maine... we will win. n/t

[Dark]

39. Exactly. People want change. They don't see that with republicans. n/t

[MagsDem]

41. We're going to win without a single southern state?

How do you figure that? Have the democrats ever been able to do that before? You don't honestly think Obama is going to win a single southern state do you?

[cottonseed]

42. A ham sandwich will win it for the Dems in the general.

nt