A Brokered Convention

[ringmastery]

How possible is this?

Could Dean do worse than expected in Iowa and New Hampshire and a strong #2 emerge to give him the fight of his life and split the democratic party in 2?

Who would be the "compromise" candidate? Al Gore? Hillary Clinton?

[Mr.Green93]

1. Hillary Clinton

[eileen_d]

2. I don't even want to go there

:cry:

[edzontar]

7. Not gonna happen--Dean wins

This is just a Clark campaign wet dream.

[eileen_d]

8. No it's not.

Psst - Supporting Dean does not mean you have to smear Clark. Honest.

I truly hope that it doesn't come down to the scenario in the initial post. It wouldn't be good for anybody.

[Iverson]

3. a thought

A compromise candidate should be one of the declared candidates. Giving someone else a free pass is unlikely to energize the base unless that person has the stature of a JFK. Honestly, I don't see anyone in the party with that appeal right now.

In the event of no clear centrist winner, I would like to see Democrats get excited about liberalism. Once upon a time that wouldn't have been too much to ask.

[elperromagico]

4. Of course, anything is conceivable.

I personally don't think it will happen though. There are too many safeguards in the primary/convention system designed to prevent such a thing from happening. I seriously doubt Democratic leaders want to present an image of a fragmented convention to potential voters. If they can do anything to prevent such an image from being presented, they'll do it. Then again, Dean's feud with DLC leaders and with McAuliffe might lead to a brokered convention. I imagine Dean would pick a moderate running mate in the hopes of averting such a situation.

I would imagine that, if a compromise candidate became necessary, the candidate might come from the ranks of the nine Democratic hopefuls. Other than that, Gore and Hillary seem like the only two who could pull it off.

[Name removed]

5. Deleted message

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[mikehiggins]

6. If it goes to the convention

the "compromise" candidate will be Clark.

Gore has taken himself off the table by endorsing Dean.

Hillary will absolutely positively 100% certain not run (what part of "no" don't people understand?)

The idea of giving the nod to the 2nd or 3rd place candidate seems weird. On the other hand, Clark has been scrupulous about not giving the other candidates reason to hate his guts. He'll slap back if he's attacked but he hasn't actually gone after any other candidate on his own initiative, other than Bush.

So, if Dean hasn't sewn it up with elected delegates before he walks into that hall, I don't think he has much chance of leaving with the nod.

He has to win it in the primaries. Counting on the "committed" superdelegates is a losing strategy, especially when taking on the leadership of the party is such a large part of your rhetoric.

[artr2]

10. the compromise candidate will be someone who Dean has beat

How fast can we give bush the election? Do you know how may people would turn off of the political process then

[AntiCoup2K4]

9. Not this year.

A three month campaign against Bush/Rove, especially with September 11 hypefest and Osamapalooza likely planned for October would be a nightmare. This nomination is gonna be settled by March.

[Northwind]

11. Not gonna happen

If they try, we will remove our support, and they cannot win without us. We control this race, period.

Nobody But Dean '04.

[abburdlen]

13. "not gonna happen"

Let me get this straight NBD

What if Dean doesn't get the nomination?
Say just hypotheticly more democrats vote for someone else to stand up to Bush in the general election. Do you plan to stay home, vote for Bush or write in Dean's name on the ballot?

[newyawker99]

17. Hi abburdlen!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[windansea]

14. what

all 250,000 of you?? heh heh

[indigo32]

16. Nope

Dean or no I'll be voting Dem this coming year. Depending on how things go down... the future (after 04) remains unclear.

[SheilaT]

12. Let me see, the last time

it took more than one ballot to nominate was in 1932, when the Democrats needed four ballots to nominate FDR. And in 1952 it took three ballots to select Adlai Stevenson.

I don't understand why so many people seem to think going in to the convention in July without a clear nominee is a good thing. It's not. What we all should hope for is that no later than mid-March we all know who the nominee will be and we all get behind that man and national ads start running to counter what will undoubtedly be a huge media blitz on the part of the Republicans.

Remember that the reason Dean opted out of campaign finance limits is NOT because he's a sleaze bag who won't play by the rules, but because he understands quite clearly that George W Bush & Co are total scum balls themselves who have no intention whatsoever of playing by the rules. And they're not dumb enough to accept campaign finance limits, not when they can raise $200 million or more to fight against any possible threat to their illegal power.

What we want is to be able to spend the entire spring, summer, and fall bringing our message to the American people and make sure they understand quite clearly what damage the Bush regime has wrought upon this country and the world. If we're still dithering about until the first week of July as to who will be our standard bearer, well, we can kiss the WH and probably our rear ends goodbye.

[adadem]

21. Absolutely correct

I am deeply concerned about a floor fight...it will only hurt us.

[JDPhD]

15. Worst case....

Imagine this scenario: (1) Sharpton manages to win a few delegates (he probably will, at least in South Carolina). (2) Dean loses Iowa and falls short of expectations in New Hampshire, resulting in a long, drawn-out primary season, with at least Clark, Gephardt, and/or Kerry fighting Dean to the bitter end. (3) Dean must keep moving left to wage the battle, is unable to tack to the center before the convention, and all the while the other candidates and all the pundits are beating the "unelectable" drum. (4) The candidates arrive at the convention with Dean just a few delegates short of those needed for the nomination. (5) The anti-Dean candidates pool their delegates around a more "centrist" and "electable" candidate (Clark, Gephardt, Kerry, or even a drafted Hillary)--but they too are a few delegates short of securing the nomination. (6) Sharpton becomes the king-maker, by throwing his delegates to one camp or the other--but he demands the VP slot in return! (7) Dean accepts the deal (fearing that he has to do it, or the chance will pass and the nomination will be "stolen" from him)--and it is Dean/Sharpton who will challenge Bush/Cheney in '04. (8) With Sharpton acting as a "left-wing crazy" anchor, the Dean/Sharpton ticket finds it utterly impossible to shake the "out-of-touch ultra-liberal" label during the campaign. (9) Bush wins in a landslide (thus gaining a "mandate" for his right-wing agenda) that includes long Senate coattails (raising the GOP to close to the filibuster-proof 60). (10) Four more years of Bush programs follow--and they are now unstoppable!

Yes, I know this is just wild fiction, but I find such speculation kind of fun. It's kind of like writing a disaster novel.

But, in all seriousness, I fear the results of compromises made during a brokered convention. Perhaps an angry and offended Dean goes the third party route. Perhaps a draft-Hillary movement swells but she refuses the nomination (preferring to wait for 2008), thus making the other potential candidates look like weakling/idiots. Etc. Whoever wins, he/she had better have it all locked up before the convention starts. A brokered convention would provide great political theater, but it will not do the Party any good.

[newyawker99]

18. Hi JDPhD!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[indigo32]

20. Hi JDPhD

I have enough faith in Dean that he wouldn't go third party. He'll break my heart if he does. Anyway... I agree it's fun to speculate. I say "fasten your seatbelt darlings we're in for a bumpy ride"

[adadem]

22. Just a tad

concerned about the damage the pugs could do in the open primary states.

Welcome to du.

[Capn Sunshine]

19. HOW in the world could Dean do "worse than expected"?

limit opposition to 1%? Win New Hampshire by less than 20 points?

Given the state of things financially alone, just isn't gonna happen.