Obama leading in Maine?

[Alhena]

This was cut and pasted on the Freeper board, citing FoxNews. Yes, I know there are multiple levels of unreliability here, but I was wondering if anyone else heard/read this:

Barack Obama takes delegate lead with win in Nebraska as of 8:25 PM EST. Sources inside campaign I speak with say Hillary is in for a "very bad night" and will lose Maine tomorrow as well according to internal polling.

Hillary has statements at the ready claiming she is focusing on Ohio, Texas, and Tuesday night. Saying Obama gave a good fight in the states she lost tonight but is looking forward to the contests ahead to give her the nomination.

[Colobo]

1. Lowering expectations? Don't trust the Clintons.

[Guaranteed]

14. Yeah, that's what it sounds like. I expect Obama to lose Maine

by 30 points.

[NJSecularist]

2. I believe them

Everybody is so ready to give Maine to Hillary, but I think Obama can win here.

[MadBadger]

4. Everywhere he seems to go and draw a huge crowd, he wins

Nebraska, Washington, Connecticut, South Carolina, Iowa, Missouri, Minnesota, Idaho, Colorado, Delaware.

He drew 10,000 today in Maine, Im hoping the streak continues.

[OzarkDem]

3. Reading Free Republic?

Welcome to DU

[Alhena]

5. Thanks, been here for years, jerk

and I read Free Republic all the time- I'm a political junkie and will read news stories anywhere.

[jkshaw]

11. Nice comeback, Alhena

I haven't heard the word "jerk" in ages. I got the same "welcome" many threads back, and I've lurked for years and been a member since 2004. Said thanks politely, didn't know I was getting the finger. Live and learn. I should have added Jerk. It has a nice snap to it.

[NWHarkness]

6. Can we vote first?

I haven't seen ANY polls. My gut feeling is that Obama will win it, but it will be close. Clinton will rack up big numbers in Portland and Lewiston, but Obama will probably do well elsewhere.

[Quixote1818]

7. The Kennedy endorsements will be enough to turn it to Obama

Those endorsements probably gave him 2 to 3 points he wouldn't have received otherwise. Just enough to put him over the top. Todays showing may help too.

[NWHarkness]

9. Because there's nothing more important to Mainers..

...than the opinions of people from Massachusetts!






Sorry, couldn't resist that.

[Quixote1818]

13. 2 to 3% is all it takes even if 97% don't care. nt

[NWHarkness]

17. Did you check your sense of humor at the door? n/t

[Yossariant]

8. Obama should win Maine handily. It's a caucus.

[CalGator]

12. all the elite lobster eating liberals will vote for him

Couldn't resist.

[NJSecularist]

19. ROFL

[ShadowLiberal]

10. Maine = a caucus, so Obama will probably win

I haven't seen any public polls yet myself however.

[VolcanoJen]

15. What was Hillary thinking, basically ceding all these small states to Obama?

It's becoming more and more possible that she won't have a victory this month.

She's clearly pinning her hopes on Ohio and Texas, three full weeks away. Hasn't this just become the Rudy Giuliani strategy??

[bigdarryl]

16. yep and the thing is it will be tight in those states by that time i read that Obama is...

starting to pickup Hispanic men in Texas sense Edwards has dropped out. thats not a good sign for Hillary.

[Whisp]

44. and there just may be a couple hefty sized endorsements

for Obama next week - so rumour goes.

If that happens, she's dead in the water and will have to resort to trying to cheat or influence her way in.

[Eurobabe]

18. Hi Jen!

How's it looking in Ohio? I haven't really been following the polls.

What's the word near Cincy?

from across the pond.

[VolcanoJen]

20. Hi gorgeous!!

Haven't seen any polls in Ohio, and it's still to far away to get an accurate idea of how it's going to go. Obama sent his Iowa team in to run the Ohio operation, and honestly, I couldn't be more confident.

[Eurobabe]

23. Hey sweet thing!

Oh goodie, couldn't be happier to hear that. Closer we get the more desperate the other side will get, and we all know what happens in OH, unfortunately.

Keep the faith and pass the koolaid!!!

GOBAMA!

[Cosmocat]

28. It is painful ...

but, she is clearing going with the 51 percent theory ...

[workinclasszero]

30. The Rudy gambit

It worked so well for him.

I expect the same results for Hillary.

[woolldog]

21. Some footage on youtube

of a rally in Bangor Maine. He drew large, enthusiastic crowds in Maine. I like his chances there.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h8INKVGLAQk&feature=user

[Colobo]

22. Obama will lose by 5%.

[SoxFan]

40. That's my guess as well

Maine is a notoriously difficult state tto predict at the presidential level. The demographics would seem to heavily favor Clinton; white, older, blue collar, labor Dems. But in 1992, the last time the Maine caucus was this heavily contested, Paul Tsongas and Jerry Brown, the candidates whose profile tracks with Obama's, finished in a tie for first, while Bill Clinton and Tom Harkin finished far behind.

[intaglio]

42. any evidence for that?

anyone? anyone? Buehler?

[goodgd_yall]

24. Hillary doing well in Ohio and Texas

will, at the very least, catch up with Obama in pledged delegates. I'm not expecting her to win any states until Ohio. Then she'll win Texas and later Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania will bring her pledged delegate count to exceed Obama's.

[CalGator]

25. bandwagon effect

If she doesn't win anything until March 4 she won't be winning Texas, Ohio, or Pennsylvania. Her aura of inevitability is not only damaged, but as Al Bundy says, "I'd say defeated, exiled and left for dead!" Heck, outside of Ohio she might not be a favorite in any of those big states now anyhow.

[TexasObserver]

26. Nope. Hillary will lose Texas. Don't know about Ohio. Yet.

[JCMach1]

29. Your TX observation is based on???

[TexasObserver]

31. 36 years of working in Democratic poltics in Texas

[skooooo]

32. Can you be more specific?

Are there more Obama signs out? What do you see that makes you say this?

[TexasObserver]

33. There's a Hillary driven meme that she will win in Texas

It's not true. Obama has dozens of paid staffers and hundreds of unpaid staffers working the state. There are over three weeks until the Texas primary, and Obama has plenty of time and money to reach Texans. As long has he has the time and money to reach Texans, he will.

Obama will obliterate Hillary in the major cities, where he will get heavy turnouts. He will win huge margins among Texas' large black population, particularly in East Texas and the coast between Bay City and Beaumont. Obama will destroy her in college towns, of which there are many in Texas strewn throughout the state.

Texas is full of Democratic office holders who cannot survive the November election if they are on a ticket topped by Hillary Clinton. She's poison down here. She's not held in high esteem by most Democrats here. Progressives uniformly consider her a fraud who mined Bill's popularity and has never been as committed to ideals as Bill used to be.

Texas Democratic office holders know that she will drag down hundreds of local and state Democrats to defeat if she heads the ticket. A dynamic candidate like Obama will assure heavy straight party voting, and that will translate to wins down ticket.

Politicians run from presidential candidates like Hillary, who drag them down. If she is the nominee, there will DEMOCRATS FOR MCCAIN popping up all over the state. We will have hundreds of Democratic politiicans renouncing her and announcing they will not support her. They will do so in hopes of avoiding defeat.

It doesn't matter to me if anyone considers my opinion on this topic accurate. But anyone who has been through elections like Mondale and Dukakis knows that Texas Democrats who hold office suffer greatly from the top of the ticket when it's a person not popular here.

I look for Obama to win here, because when people have enough time to hear and experience him, they vote for him in big numbers.

Hillary's got women over 50 and Hispanics. I don't think that will carry the Texas primary.

[skooooo]

34. Thanks....

That reminds me that I did read someone else's post who said that Hillary wasn't popular with the Dems. down there.

[TexasObserver]

35. Even when Bubba was riding hide, Hillary was a curse word here

The Hillary hate down here is palpable and longstanding.

Read Molly Ivins column about Hillary, and you'll know how Texas progressives feel about Hillary. She now holds the distinction of being loathed by both the blue dogs and the progressives in the state, which combine to form a majority of party activists.

[TexasObserver]

36. Here's the Molly Ivins article

Published on Friday, January 20, 2006 by the Columbus Free Press (Ohio)
I Will Not Support Hillary Clinton for President
by Molly Ivins

I'd like to make it clear to the people who run the Democratic Party that I will not support Hillary Clinton for president.

Enough. Enough triangulation, calculation and equivocation. Enough clever straddling, enough not offending anyone This is not a Dick Morris election. Sen. Clinton is apparently incapable of taking a clear stand on the war in Iraq, and that alone is enough to disqualify her. Her failure to speak out on Terri Schiavo, not to mention that gross pandering on flag-burning, are just contemptible little dodges.

<snip>

Do not sit there cowering and pretending the only way to win is as Republican-lite. If the Washington-based party can't get up and fight, we'll find someone who can.

[skooooo]

37. Cool. Ann Richardsons is in the same camp I've heard. nt

[TexasObserver]

38. Ann is dead, but she would have been. Ann was a real liberal, not a phony.

[JCMach1]

39. Texas is a BIG state and yes Obama can do well. However, the demographics

would favor Hillary: women's vote, latinos, and people making under 50,000.

The last poll just before Super Tuesday had Hillary up by 10. I don't know that she would cover the spread... so Hillary by 6-10%

[TexasObserver]

43. You're repeating Hillary talking points.

The last poll before Super Tuesday?!

Thank for playing, but I don't think there's much substance behind your opinion on this matter.

[JCMach1]

46. That was the last poll conducted

I lived in the SW... Oklahoma a TX for almost 7 years. I can't see where Obama breaks through outside of Houston and Austin.

Unless the dynamics of the race change (that is still possible).

[TexasObserver]

48. Well I trump that 7 years with 58 years. I won't tell you what UAE will do

and you don't tell me what Texas will do.

[JCMach1]

50. Good grief... get some thicker skin will ya!

[Divernan]

41. Here's my read on Pennsylvania Dems.

Gov. Rendell endorsed Clinton with dreams of a vice-presidential slot on the ticket. A few really old dem party hacks/state committee people(now in their 70's, who should have made room for younger blood about two generations ago - like Jean Milko)have endorsed Clinton. Senator Casey and most of our state reps have remained uncommitted.

I'm retired from working for the Dem caucus in the state house, and have been involved in presidential campaigns in my very Dem county/Allegheny/Pittsburgh going back to McGovern. My preferences for 2008 were: Richardson, followed by Edwards, and now Obama. Of all the Dems, Independents, and moderate GOP-ers I have talked with since Hillary Clinton was first mentioned as even possibly running for president, I have not met a single one who supports her. And the majority of the time, I didn't even raise the question of her running or whether anyone would vote for her - others, knowing my involvement with the Dem Party, would ask me what I thought of her candidacy, telling me they didn't like her. Moderate GOP-ers have expressed their dismay at McCain (they consider him too old, too crazy and a warmonger)and have come up to tell me they will be voting for Obama if he's the Dem candidate. The young voters are very enthusiastic about Obama. People I know through ACLU prefer Obama.
I'll vote for Clinton if she is the party candidate, but at this point I expect Obama to win the PA primary, and unless the superdelegates over rule the mass of Dem voters, I expect Obama to be the candidate.

[fujiyama]

27. Internal polls are not real numbers....

Obama has yet to win it.

We will wait and see. I hope he does indeed win it.

[TheFarseer]

45. This will be very close

I think Obama will pull it out by a very small margin and I base this on nothing but my demographic knowledge of the state and my gut

[Drunken Irishman]

47. It wasn't very close, eh? :)

[FrenchieCat]

49. Not even......

close to close!