Consider this: What if Obama has peaked?

[McCamy Taylor]

To all you posters who are claiming that Obama is going to keep getting new supporters and that Hillary is going to keep losing supporters, please consider this:

Hillary had broad name recognition and the high negativity that comes from having everyone know exactly where you stand on all the issues and everything that you have ever done.

Obama, being fresh and new, got the name recognition first but without the negativity. This is natural. Every new candidate benefits from the "fresh slate" effect.

However, once the public learns to recognize a candidate, then it starts to associate stands on issues, history and other things with that candidate.

Obama has a weakness in that he is running on "character". Any misstep or misstatement or scandal hurts him more than Hillary, who is running as a "public servant".

It is entirely possible that Obama's support will plateau with more exposure. If he elects to avoid debates, then it will be a sign that this is happening, and that his people are trying to limit his exposure to "messianic" events---speeches, TV spots etc.

So, any talk of Hillary dropping out of the race, because Obama is an unstoppable juggernaut is premature. Unless the MSM does to Hillary what it did to Edwards---begins to lie about her 24-7 and/or blacklists her while proclaiming Obama the best thing since sliced bread, I would say that this is still the Two Man Race the corporate media said it was last year.

[sunonmars]

1. Theres also the little matter brewing in February and getting closer by the day

Rezko, the trial starts at the end of the month and questions are starting to be asked.

[VolcanoJen]

4. I'm sure Obama is perfectly willing to go toe-to-toe...

... in a "Can You Out-Scandal Me?" pissing contest against the Clintons. :-)

[sunonmars]

6. I don't even think she'll need to mention the msm will do it.

[niceypoo]

10. Ah, but mindless slogans are what his followers REALLY want!

[Hugabear]

2. How much broad recognition did Bill Clinton have prior to '92?

Not only that, but I wouldn't necessarily consider Hillary's name-recognition a good thing. There is quite a bit of animosity towards her - and much of it comes from within our own party. If you think the attacks you're seeing now are bad, just wait until the general election. You'll see negative campaigning from the GOP the likes of which probably haven't been seen since the Jefferson-Adams campaign of 1800.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

3. What if he hasn't?

[Mags]

7. He probably can't have more media attention

then he did this past week, with The Kennedys,& the many other endorsements, his calling for meaningless press
conferences etc. Well, I take that back , he still has CNN & MSNBC.

[Guava Jelly]

5. Never underestimate

Obama will do fine...He may just win this.
If he does I hope you would support him as I would Clinton

[McCamy Taylor]

8. I will suport the Dem nominee. I am afraid that Obama may not.

He and his wife keep hinting that they will pull a McCarthy 1968.

Why do they keep hinting that? Is it just a bluff the force voters to vote for them or do they mean it? It is a dirty trick if they do not mean it. If they mean it, it is suicide for the party--and for Obama, because there will be no coming back in four years. Look what happened to Gene in 1972.

[Guava Jelly]

11. Don't be

Trust me he will.

[Blue_State_Elitist]

9. Obama is still relatively unknown to the general electorate...

No candidate can keep rising. It starts to fall once the negatives become more apparent, and everybody (even St. Obama) has negatives.

[aint_no_life_nowhere]

12. The high negativity of Hillary's name recognition is a factor in the GE, not here

Apart from hard-line lefty bloggers who are aware of every nuance of Hillary Clinton's voting record or her big-money campaign donors, the average registered Democrat would look upon her famous last name very favorably. Her husband is still widely hated by the right, and extremely popular on the left, namely among Democrats. Only if she makes it to the general election will the negativity surrounding her name be an issue with voters, which would include right-wing haters. I would guess that the average registered Democrat still wonders about the odd name of Barack Obama. Barack Obama is without any doubt whatsoever the strangest, most un-Anglo Saxon sounding name of anyone who has ever made a serious run for the Presidency. And Obama is not only running on character. He's running on his enormous speaking ability, his obvious intelligence, and his leadership in being able to attract thousands of new voters. Unless something major is brought out that damages his reputation, I don't think his support will flag at all.

[high density]

13. Hillary went overboard with Bill and marketing herself as the 1990s candidate

I don't want to go back to the 1990s and this is what has solidified my support for Obama in recent weeks. I think people burned out to the idea of the Hillary & Bill plus unknown VP ticket and that's why Obama is gaining support. Throughout January, Hillary spent all of Bill's political capital and then some. Clinton was a fine president and a genius at running the country when compared to the guy currently in charge. Now I want some fresh perspectives in there instead of the 1990s perspectives.

[Exultant Democracy]

14. i think in the end the money will tell the story, if Obama's donations dry up

Then you are probably right. On the other hand if he has another strong donation month then it will be easy for him to buy the airtime he needs during the next round of primaries. Eithe way one or the other got a tuesday bump and we will see it in the days to come.

[earthside]

15. Mistaken Analysis

The original post says: "Obama has a weakness in that he is running on "character". Any misstep or misstatement or scandal hurts him more than Hillary, who is running as a "public servant"."

Voting for President is different than any other vote people cast -- it is a gut, emotional vote. For the vast majority of Americans it is a vote on character. And, actually, that is in large measure what it should be about -- for a chief executive, for the "commander-in-chief", for the bully pulpit leader, it is about HOW an individual will govern.

Besides, who knows what circumstances will confront the next President? Will we be in a war with Iran? Will the economy rebound? Who knows?

So, character is the key factor. And, that is Clinton(s) problem and why she has probably peaked. After knowing her for twenty years, after Monica and Whitewater, what else is there is learn?

I mean really, how inspiring is the prospect of a McCain - Clinton(s) contest? Two "public servants" who have been Washington insiders for decades. It makes me drowsy just thinking about it. Both backward looking individuals after eight years of the most regressive presidency in our history. Sheesh.

[NJSecularist]

16. Hillary peaked the second she entered the race

That is the biggest problem for her. She has no upside.

[kid a]

17. in your wildest wet pipe dream!

[blm]

18. He hasn't. He's a waxing moon.

His opponent is waning.