Fun with exit polls

[ProSense]

Fun with exit polls

Posted February 6th, 2008 at 10:20 am

We talked earlier about who won on Super Tuesday (Dems, Republicans), but let’s take a closer look at how they won.

There’s a mountain of exit polling data to comb through, and there’s going to be some variations based on regions, but in general, there are some interesting trends to consider.

On the Democratic side…

* Despite rumors to the contrary, Democratic voters are not bitterly divided between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama — 72% of all Dems said they’d be satisfied with Clinton as the nominee, and 71% said they’d be happy with Obama.

* Clinton won women (52% to 45%), Obama won men (53% to 42%).

* “Identity” politics still matter: “Hillary Clinton carried white voters over Barack Obama, 52 to 43 percent. Obama carried black voters 82 to 16 percent. Clinton won Latinos 61 to 37 percent, and Clinton carried Asians 68 percent to 30 percent.”

* On the other hand, Obama drew even with Clinton among white males, a first this year. (Perhaps John Edwards’ departure helped Obama here?)

* Voters who said the economy is the top issue preferred Clinton. Those who said the war in Iraq is the top issue preferred Obama.

* Among Dems, Clinton enjoyed a five-point margin over Obama. Among independents, Obama enjoyed a 21-point margin over Clinton. On the other hand, Obama did better among self-identified liberals, but Clinton was stronger among self-identified moderates.

* The generation gap is alive and well — Obama scored big with younger voters, Clinton easily won the over 65 crowd.

more

[ProSense]

1. "Among independents, Obama enjoyed a 21-point margin...did better among self-identified liberals"

n/t

[cloudythescribbler]

2. These internals are interesting. For a horserace analysis, see:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4429972

One BIG question that I have is what were the gender patterns among the NON-whites voting for HRC? How big a factor eg was gender among Latino/as etc?

I think that Obama's broadening base clearly makes him now the candidate to beat -- Hillary's last HUGE firewall has failed to stop him. (Obama also has to overcome MI and FL possibilities, in the DEGREE of his further success. The main question now is will some major setback/MSM bring Obama down?