A (kinda dumb) technical question about the primary results

[Armstead]

I realize this is a basic question, but I think we lose sight of the forest for the trees sometimes.

Tomorrow, how will the vote results correlate to delegates, in terms of overall numbers?

Lets say, for example, Candidate A wins a lot of states by narrow margins, like 47 v. 49 percent? Would the actual delegate count reflect that closeness, or would it be considered a blowout?

Or, will it be similar to the Electoral College, in which the significance of each state determines the outcome, like one big state offsetting a lot of smaller states?

Basically, I'm wondering how much of a make-or-break tomorrow actually will be, assuming the main candidates end up being fairly close in the overall totals?

[Buzz Clik]

1. It's "proportional" sort of.

There are delegates voted in at a district level, state level, and the super delegates. It's complicated and defies any prediction.

[CreekDog]

2. Yes, close margins will mean close awarding of delegates

Each state awards in its own way, but they are all proportional. Something like 1652 delegates are awarded on 2/5, 2000 or so are needed for the nomination.

Even a convincing win for one side might result in 950 delegates versus 700 for the loser which means it's hardly settled the next day.

[LSdemocrat]

3. All Democratic primaries are proportional by congressional district

One thing to keep in mind is that delegates are awarded proportionally by Congressional district, so that a candidate could rack up a big percentage in an isolated district that could throw off an analysis of just looking at the statewide results, for example:

Assume a 30 delegate state, with 3 districts, so 10 delegates per district.

Statewide: Candidate A 48% - Candidate B 52%

District 1: Candidate A 80% - Candidate B 20%
District 2: Candidate A 40% - Candidate B 60%
District 3: Candidate A 40% - Candidate B 60%

Keep in mind the number of Democratic voters may not be even across districts

Under this scenario, Candidate A would get 16 delegates (8+4+4) while Candidate B would get 14 delegates (2+6+6)

[Armstead]

4. Thanks

[OKNancy]

5. I can tell you a little about Oklahoma

There are 47 delegates total, which includes the super-delegates
The primary vote is proportional, but no delegates will be given unless
they hit 15% ( Edwards and Richardson are still on the ballot )
Polls show Obama at 19%, so who knows.