Nearly 100,000 indpendents walked away fron the GOP primary in SC last week

[Perky]

They are almost certainly white and probably voted overwhelmingly for McCain last time. They are likely going to vote today. M ost of the polling I have seen discounts the level of indies voting in today's primary.

I think Obama and Edwards are going to get about 80% of those and am thus predicting a third place finish for the Clintons.

Here is the data

2000 Primary
Total 100% 573,101
Republicans 61% 349,592
Democrats 9% 51,579
Independents 30% 171,930


2008 Primary
Total 100% 430,919
Republicans 80% 344,735
Democrats 2% 8,618
Independents 18% 77,565

Difference
Total -25% (142,182)
Republicans -1% (4,856)
Democrats -83% (42,961)
Independents -55% (94,365)

These numbers actually bode well for Obama in that independents are more disposed to him thAn Hillary and they did not vote in the GOP Primary,


As always turn out is key, But it certainly looks good.

Exit poll data
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epol ...

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2000/primaries/SC/poll.rep ....


2000 vote totals

http://www.gwu.edu/~action/states/scprimresults.html

[THUNDER HANDS]

1. 100,000?

where did you get that number from?

[Perky]

6. actually it is 94,000... I compared data availabe on CNN

2000 Primary
Total 100% 573,101
Republicans 61% 349,592
Democrats 9% 51,579
Independents 30% 171,930


2008 Primary
Total 100% 430,919
Republicans 80% 344,735
Democrats 2% 8,618
Independents 18% 77,565

Difference
Total -25% (142,182)
Republicans -1% (4,856)
Democrats -83% (42,961)
Independents -55% (94,365)

These numbers actually bode well for Obama in that independents are more disposed to him thAn Hillary and they did not vote in the GOP Primary,


As always turn out is key, But it certainly looks good.

Exit poll data
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epol ...

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2000/primaries/SC/poll.rep ....


2000 vote totals

http://www.gwu.edu/~action/states/scprimresults.html

[robbedvoter]

2. Oh, I am sure there'll be dirty tricks a-plenty - one reason why polls are junk

[Honeycombe8]

3. Predictions are useless these days. People lie, people don't have land lines....

It's back to the olden days, again. We have to wait and see. Grrrrr. It's nailbiting tension is what it is.

[robbedvoter]

5. and pollsters fix samples, questions as they please (how many women did they ask?)

[Perky]

7. here is the data

2000 Primary
Total 100% 573,101
Republicans 61% 349,592
Democrats 9% 51,579
Independents 30% 171,930


2008 Primary
Total 100% 430,919
Republicans 80% 344,735
Democrats 2% 8,618
Independents 18% 77,565

Difference
Total -25% (142,182)
Republicans -1% (4,856)
Democrats -83% (42,961)
Independents -55% (94,365)

These numbers actually bode well for Obama in that independents are more disposed to him thAn Hillary and they did not vote in the GOP Primary,


As always turn out is key, But it certainly looks good.

Exit poll data
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epol ...

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2000/primaries/SC/poll.rep ....


2000 vote totals

http://www.gwu.edu/~action/states/scprimresults.html

[TwilightGardener]

4. McCain actually got a lower percentage of support in SC last week

than in 2000, even with all the endorsements and the sense of "let's give it to the old man, since we fucked him over so bad the last time". I don't think he'll win if he's the nominee. I am not too worried about him. His appeal is fading.

[Frances]

8. It does say something about the Repub party's woes

that McCain won with fewer votes in 2008 than he lost by in 2004.

But I just can't see South Carolina going Dem in the general, no matter whom we nominate. Can you?

Edited for clarity

[TwilightGardener]

10. If Obama is our nominee, maybe--I think that there will be enough excitement

about his candidacy in a black-populated state that it might turn blue, but I wouldn't bet on it. Hillary--no, it will stay red. Edwards, native son--maybe, but doubtful.

[Frances]

11. Just don't see Obama winning South Carolina in the general

I don't think either Hillary or Edwards has a chance to win the state in the general either.

I think there are just too many fundamentalist Christians, "fiscal conservatives," authority-loving whites who identify with the Republican party for the Dems to have a chance. I say this because I have spent a lot of time in South Carolina with close relatives.

[Perky]

13. Only if the GOP melts down

[spooky3]

9. By SC law, they are not allowed to vote in the Dem. primary

unless they are willing to lie:

http://uspolitics.about.com/od/2008elections/tp/south_c...
All voters in the primary and all participants in the precinct meetings and caucuses must swear or affirm that they are registered voters of this precinct, that they consider themselves to be a Democrat, and that have not participated in the 2008 Presidential nominating process of any other political party.

[Perky]

12. They can declare the day of the primary

[spooky3]

14. they would have to LIE, not declare

if they are not Democrats.

[blindpig]

15. Don't have to lie

The question is, "Do you want to vote in the Democratic Primary?".

That's what I was asked this morning.

[spooky3]

19. then you are saying that the linked information that

I provided is incorrect?

Please look at the link. It claims that people have to swear or affirm that they consider themselves Democratic. That is pretty different from the question you were asked. So either that info is wrong, or you weren't asked the right question. I don't know which it is.

[Catbird]

16. Not necessarily

I live and vote in South Carolina. I have never been asked any questions at a party primarily about affiliation, even when I crossed over to the dark side.

They do check to make sure you don't vote in more than one party primary.

[Frances]

17. What I love about DU

is that there are so many people who have first-hand knowledge of issues that come up.

[spooky3]

20. so you are saying that the info linked on the web is incorrect

http://uspolitics.about.com/od/2008elections/tp/south_c ...

"All voters in the primary and all participants in the precinct meetings and caucuses must swear or affirm that they are registered voters of this precinct, that they consider themselves to be a Democrat, and that have not participated in the 2008 Presidential nominating process of any other political party."

[spooky3]

21. Here's an article that suggests the oath was rescinded in 2004

it doesn't say whether it was a permanent change:

http://greenvilleonline.com/news/2004/02/02/2004020223931.htm

"As they campaigned, the South Carolina Democratic Party rescinded its loyalty oath that had been criticized as a disincentive for independents to vote in the state's primary. The polls will be open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.

Party Chairman Joe Erwin told a Columbia news conference that the loyalty oath, roundly criticized within the party, would not be required. Critics had warned it would deter independents from voting, but Erwin said it was scrapped because of "confusion" over the oath's intent."

[blindpig]

18. The bear's share will go to Edwards

for reasons good and bad.