Skin Deep

[cali]

The New Republic

Skin Deep
by Michael Crowley
Just how strong is black affection for the Clintons?
Post Date Wednesday, February 13, 2008

When Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign first began, there was reason to think she would be hard to beat in a primary. Despite her Iraq vulnerability and assorted baggage, she seemed to have an impenetrable bulwark in the black vote. "Bill Clinton's popularity with blacks has been presumed to carry over to her and help her win the important South Carolina primary ... and other similar Southern primaries," explained Newsweek in November 2006. Newsweek wisely noted that the candidacy of Barack Obama could change that presumption. But, even after Obama joined the race, some Clinton advisers didn't fret. Last January, one party strategist told Politico that "this is all about loyalty and the strength of relationships that the Clintons have engendered over the years. It's going to be hard to look them in the face and say, 'I can't support you.'"

At first, that seemed true. A CNN poll in October showed Hillary leading Obama among blacks nationally by a comfortable 57-31 margin. But, by mid- January, those same numbers had swung a stunning 52 points, leaving Obama with a 59-31 advantage.

For the Clintonites, this turnabout has been a nasty surprise. One black Democratic operative told me the Hillary campaign did not distribute talking points on her civil rights record until this month. "They didn't think it was going to be an issue," according to the operative.

What happened? In part, Iowa dispelled the assumption that racism made Obama unelectable. The Clinton campaign also alienated some blacks by striking allegedly racially charged chords like Obama's cocaine use. But a look back at the Clinton years, and at Hillary's own public persona, suggests that the black firewall may have been overstated from the start.

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http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=2165a62c-1a13-43af-8808-50c884193e4c