Let's get down to it: can Obama make up double digit deficits in CA et al between 1/26 and 2/5?

[Unsane]

That's 9 days.

Nine days.

He's sure to get some mo' from his inevitable SC win (1/26). But how much? Enough to catapult him ahead in CA, NY, NJ et al where he's been down for months? Hillary is campaigning in these places as we speak. Obama is in SC battling Bill Clinton. Objectively, I'd say the Clintons have the smarter strategy here. Place second in SC, claim it was skewed because of a high black vote, and move on. Anyone know what Obama's ad buys look like in the Feb 5. contests? FWIW, he is doing well in the SE corridor (places like Georgia, MS, and likely TN).

Obama has a 9 day window here. Nine days.

[KennedyGuy]

1. Not...A....Prayer..

[Unsane]

3. Objective analysis only, please.

[KennedyGuy]

9. I don't see how he does it..

He does not do well in states where ONLY Dems can vote in the primaries. And he is indeed doing well with the AA community, but after NC, that advantage fades as Hillary takes the lead in all other categories..
Objective enough?

[flpoljunkie]

54. It's only 5 points in California according to the latetst Rasmussen polling--38% to 33%!

Election 2008: California Democratic Presidential Primary
California: Clinton 38% Obama 33%
Thursday, January 17, 2008

The first Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of California’s Democratic Presidential Primary shows Hillary Clinton leading Barack Obama by five percentage points. It’s Clinton 38% Obama 33% and John Edwards at 12%. Dennis Kucinich picks up 3% of the vote and 13% are not sure.

Obama is viewed favorably by 80% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters, Clinton by 78%, and Edwards by 68%.

Eighty percent (80%) believe Obama would be at least somewhat likely to win if nominated. Seventy-eight percent (78%) say the same about Clinton.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/california/election_2008_california_democratic_presidential_primary

[Sulawesi]

2. It seems uphill, but possible...

[MadBadger]

4. He can make up his lead in many states like CA. He wont in NY, cuz that her home state.

[BlackmanX]

47. He might not win NY or NJ but he can make a dent in Hillary's base by going to the bouroughs more

than that Obama is going to win the south along with Northeast states like Mass along with midwest states like Missouri, Wisconsin, and Minestotsa. States like Maryland and Virginia might also swing for Obama. He just has to return to the original message he had when he won Iowa and get more surrogates to counter the Clinton attacks.

[Lucinda]

5. ANYTHING is possible. These things can turn on a dime.

But it would be tough.

[K Gardner]

6. Yes, he *is* doing well in TN. May not be reflected by "polling", but remember NH.

[Unsane]

8. So, GA, TN, MS, IL?

In the bag for him? Maybe MA too?

[K Gardner]

10. I don't claim to know anything but my neighbors in TN. But I'd wager GA and TN.

[ellisonz]

50. Illinois votes Feb. 5 too.

[Dogmudgeon]

7. Only if he gets back "on message"

Hope, Hope, Hope, Hope, Hope ... when he talks about details, he is much less persuasive.

That can be a good or a bad thing, depending on your point of view, but it is one of BHO's major strengths.

--p!

[angie_love]

12. me too

I want to know this too, what can Obama do to win these states? esp CA. Maybe he can camp down in CA for 9 days and hope some of the other states swing his way. what do you think?

[bellasgrams]

25. So true he is very good on smooth talking but terrible on details

about issues.

[Proud2BAmurkin]

11. He's cracking under the pressure. Yelled at reporters today.

[angie_love]

13. Ok.

Actually can we keep this thread free of flames? thank you. It would be nice to have a positive thread w/ no spin.

[Unsane]

14. You are banned from my thread. Get out of here.

[K Gardner]

21. Don't pay attn to Prd2b. Poster has definite problems.

[FrenchieCat]

45. It appears that I put this poster on Ignore, and it appears that I'm not missing

anything!

Excellent!

Try it.

[wisteria]

28. He was tough with them because of the questioning. Gee, I wonder who you support.?

What about Hillary's tears. Some could say that she was cracking up under the pressure. Stop spinning untruths.

[Alexander]

38. But when Bill Clinton yells at reporters, that's okay.

Go home, troll.

[Joe the Revelator]

15. He doesn't need to *win* CA or NY

He needs to come in strong seconds in order to keep Hillary from getting ALL the delegates. In fact, if he wins the right ratio of counties in those states, he can still get more delegates then her, even if she wins the popular vote.

Its absurd to think that he needs to win Hillary's "home" state in order to get the nomination.

[Unsane]

16. Agreed. I edited it out.

Nobody really expects him to win NY (including me).

If he comes in above 40% in CA is that a victory?

[Joe the Revelator]

17. Depending on where he win, I think it really could be

If he has a strong showing in the south (which polls say that he will), IL, MO (maybe) and Kansas (look at the only poll taken there)and has a strong second in CA, then he's in good shape to continue to states like MD, where he is shifting to the lead.

[Konza]

19. 100% Correct. It's all about proportional delegates at this point.

Coming in 2nd in California, with Clinton gettin in the low 40s and Obama getting in the high 30s would be huge. As underdogs Obama and Edwards could at the very least prevent Team Clinton from getting enough delegates to wrap up a first ballot victory with committed delegates.
If that happens, Sweet Lord watch out!
So Hillary's margins of victory on Super Tuesday will determine if this thing goes to Denver, or if it is wrapped up in a few weeks.
And this helps to explain the desperation and the madness we will see in the coming days.
For The Fate of a 3rd Term and Another Clinton Co-Presidency hinge on the next 2 weeks.
Oh, the Humanity!

[ellisonz]

51. CA is very important.

[Joe the Revelator]

58. But not "win or go home" important

nt

[Joe the Revelator]

18. I think another important thing to remember is....

even if he doesn't win collectively win outright on SDT, he can still "win" by keeping it close going into the post Super Tuesday states.

Everyone expected Hillary to put away all competition on or before Feb. 5th. By forcing her into the post SDT states, Obama wins with momentum.

[angie_love]

20. also

He really needs some great press going into super tuesday. focus on his hope and unity, and focus alot of time in CA, NJ. It would be a miracle if someone of calibor can endorse him like Al Gore but its doubtful. It will be hard but praying for a miracle.

[Unsane]

22. Agree on Gore

[JanusAscending]

23. UH.............

Obama has had ads on local TV here in Ct. for a week now. I've not seen any of Hill's !!! He's got a great ground campaign going on in the Northeast! Do you really think he's that stupid??? I'll give him a very good shot at it!

[jlake]

24. I honestly do not think so. If he wins by a blow out in SC, he can close the gap, but

I do not think a victory in CA is possible.

[NJSecularist]

26. I agree with you

I think it's too much of a hurdle to climb, but he can limit the damage and if he can come in a close second then that is a victory for him.

[wisteria]

27. Is this a post to get people to stop supporting Obama? Well, I believe anything is possible.

I say the race is wide open and anything can happen in 9 days! It is not over until it is over.

[BenDavid]

29. Last night debate was more for the folks in the 2/5 states then

for the SC folks. HRC will go into next week still the one to beat and even though florida will give out no delegates it will be like michigan and hrc will whoop ass there too.....then its onward to the 2/5 states and hrc is looking damn good in all of them and i give obama illinois and maybe 2 smaller states in the south....hrc wins 15 plus states

[BluegrassDem]

30. Republicans and Indies can vote in the Dem primary

Reagan is revered in CA, so that'll help him w/more moderate voters.

[book_worm]

31. Yes. He needs to ignore Bill and stay on his message and I believe CA is a key state

and he can win there--he needs to get those young people to vote, African-Americans, and make some strides among hispanic voters. It can be done.

[grantcart]

32. He doesn't have to: heres why

1) Rasmussen is showing him only down by 5 points http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/california/election_2008_california_democratic_presidential_primary


2) He doesn't have to make up the points Hillary is dropping fast he just has to make up have the difference
the Billary Circus will give him the other half

3) A Big victory in SC will give him 4-5 points because people will start to see he is viable


4) Its a proportional primary even if he doesn't win 51% he can take a huge number of delegates

Hillary has to have 51% of the delegates the other candidates don't

[Unsane]

33. Good points.

[book_worm]

34. Good points. I think Obama will do very well in California

[kelligesq]

35. That's questionable because Ca has heavy Latino population and

so far Latino is going for HRC.

[angie_love]

37. And even if thats the case, hes still doing well there

He can still make up some ground btwn now and 2/5, its not ever till its over so thanks for the negativity but i'll choose to remain positive.

[grantcart]

39. hillary has droped 10 points in 2 weeks

also california loves a good story if Obama wins big in SC there will be a big boost in ca

[angie_love]

36. ..

Hillary needs to be painted as a liar as they've essentially been twisting and distorting Obamas words. So in the next debate he should say nonchalantly "Hillary I think the american people are tired of being lied to" if she tries to attack him again and let that percolate for a few seconds. After that he should stay on message of hope, unity, etc.

[loveangelc]

46. i didnt know he was only down by 5 in ca...thats good....(if true)

[Yukari Yakumo]

40. What NV and SC will probably prove to me is...

Obama is strong with Blacks, but weak with Latinos. If this holds true, he will fare well in the South, but he risks getting clobbered everywhere else.

SuperTuesday has 21 states on the line. This includes Illinois and three Southern states. That leaves 17 more states for Obama to worry about.

[GoldieAZ49]

41. Racism is a problem with a large voting block

Sad but true, most latinos will not vote for him, that is huge in CA, where HRC is now.

Here in AZ is a large latino population also, the Gov endorsed him, but as we saw in NV that does bring in the votes.

I don't know about the other 20 states or their make up.

He knew it would not be easy, he needs to reach out to every single voting block there is.


http://factcheck.barackobama.com/

[Yukari Yakumo]

48. Lemme dig some info up...

Super Tuesday states:

IL - Obama country
TN - Probably Obama
GA - Possibly Obama
AL - Probably Obama

NY - Clinton country
NJ - Clinton country
CA - Clinton country
AZ - V. High Latino pop, Very likely Clinton
NM - V. High Latino pop, Very likely Clinton
CO - Latino pop on par with NV, Probably Clinton
UT - Whitest state in the union, Probably Clinton
AR - Former home state, Very likely Clinton

What's left:
ID, KS, OK, ND, MN, MO, CT, & MA.

[avrdream]

42. He is definitely going to get a bump from South Carolina....

but I don't believe it will be at Hillary's expense. I think John begins to lost votes after South Carolina, sadly for him.

It will probably come down to delegates.....shit, you guys should be down here in Australia trying to explain our system to them. Sometimes I'm not sure I even understand it. They look at me as if I'm just another crazy Yank. From the outside looking in, our system is hard to swallow. I wish we could just get it over with in a day like they do down here in Oz.

Cheers.

[usregimechange]

43. SC will provide the bump

[Unsane]

53. Will it be enough?

We'll see obviously. A double digit win would help.

[cali]

44. No. He can't- barring something completely unforeseen.

But a couple of things: Of course he's not going to take NY or NJ anymore than Clinton will take Illinois. CA? Probably not. His real goal has to be to come close- within a hundred delegates or so. The states after 2/5 look good for him.

[Unsane]

56. Good point

[VarnettaTuckpocket]

49. After he gets slaughtered in Florida? Dream on

People aren't going to care the delegates are disqualified, the momentum is still going to be Hillary's winning big right before Super Tuesday.

[Unsane]

57. I'm not sure the media is even following that train.

Nobody is campaigning there.

[Adelante]

52. She has only 12 points on him in CA

He peeled 20 points off her Nevada lead in the month before the caucus. While he didn't take the state, and there is less time, he did show he can cut into her vote. CA could be a surprise, or not. We'll see.

[awaysidetraveler]

55. Yes he can, but it will take our help. The impetus for change is greater than it is reported.