Fineman on Edwards: Tell Me Something I Don't Know

[Samantha]

This morning on The Chris Matthews Show, on that segment, "Tell Me Something I Don't Know," Fineman contributed this info. If Edwards is forced to drop out in the near future, he will throw his support behind Obama. Inside the Edwards camp, supporters are saying Edwards has said he could never support Hillary Clinton.

Look for Edwards to be standing in the Obama background should he withdraw from the campaign -- no wiggle room left in the Fineman blurb.

Interesting.

I pass this on for your information and discussion. I think it's a pretty provocative tidbit which many Obama and Edwards supporters would like to contemplate, and Hillary supporters would like to disclaim.

The conventional wisdom expressed by the pundits so far seems to have been if Edwards withdraws, his supporters will split half for Obama and half for Clinton.

What's your prediction?

[flyarm]

1. Ewards will not withdraw..so get that straight!! eom

[Samantha]

9. flyarm, I am just passing along for discussion info I heard

I personally have no opinion on Edwards prospects of withdrawing, but if my back were up against the wall and I were forced to make one, I take him at his word. I think he will continue on as long as possible, collecting as many delegates as he can. Should circumstances change and he cannot make it to the convention, I believe he might play the role of the king maker and that's a thought which certainly has not escaped him.

I do believe he is not a Hillary fan. No facts, just gut talking there, and I have no clue as to what he thinks of Obama.

[flyarm]

12. i understand that..i am just telling you Edwards will not withdraw..period.

[Jackpine Radical]

2. My prediction: Obama.

My personal choice, if it comes to that: Obama.

[dogman]

3. I wouldn't be surprised.

How much is his endorsement worth? I think his loss of primary votes has been due to defections to Clinton anyway.

[Samantha]

13. Really? you see Edwards' base with more similarities to those

of Hillary than Obama? Is that what you are saying? I would have thought the converse, but I have been known to be wrong.

[comradebillyboy]

21. Hillary sems to be very strong with

union members and working class democrats compared to Obama from what I have seen of the polling data. For that reason Hillary may be more appealing to a large segment of the Edwards base, even though Edwards himself might prefer Obama to Clinton. But it appears to me that Obama and his people seem to be trying very hard to alienate Edwards lately.

[Samantha]

24. Really, why do you say that - do you think the Obama camp

is aching for an Edwards withdrawal?

[comradebillyboy]

28. Yes, In my opinion, as a total outsider,

I think Obama wants a two way race with Clinton. I think Edwards really hurt Clinton in Iowa, but since then his impact has been more ambiguous. I also think Obama feels he will gain stature and credibility from being seen as one of only 2 contenders for the nomination.

[dogman]

61. Looking at the opinion polls and the real polls, yes.

Obama's polling seems consistent. Edwards has dropped while Clinton has risen. But then too, I could be wrong, this is just my impression.

[Tennessee Gal]

4. I call bullshit.

Edwards just concluded an interview on CNN. He is not getting out.

[Missy M]

5. I think the pundits should give up on their predictions...

people will vote for whomever they want, the vote in Nevada proved that.

[Samantha]

11. It seemed Fineman was passing on inside information

and was throwing it out there for what it is worth. I posted it here to get DU'ers thoughts on the subject.

I did not think it was a subject that would provoke outrage (emotion, yes; outrage, no); I thought it might elicit some intelligent commentary by those who know Edwards best. We can always use that.

[comradebillyboy]

35. I think Fineman, like most TV pundits,

likes to look like he has the inside track on what will happen. The pundit prediction record has been pretty dismal over the last several years. However, I would guess, at this moment in time, Edwards would personally prefer Obama to Clinton. But Edwards says he will not withdraw. I really don't know who that helps or hurts in the long run. Probably helps Obama some in South Carolina, because the Edwards and Clinton bases overlap more than one might expect given the candidate's difference. But if Edwards electoral showings don't improve, it really won't matter who eventually gets his support.

[OHdem10]

6. It was reported on DU last evening that in some precincts.

Edwards voters broke 4 out of 5 for Hilary. It sounds reasonable
they each attract the same voter base.

It would be very smart for Edwards to do as Richardson and not
choose sides. Refrain from endorsing anyone.

Most voters are not going to be that swayed and you run the risk
of disappointing part of them.

[Samantha]

16. All that is true, but if Edwards doesn't endorse one or the other

should he fail to get the nomination, and encourage his supporters to back that candidate, Edwards will not get a prominent seat in the new cabinet. If Edwards were my candidate, and I do like the man but I remain uncommitted, I would like to see him play a strategic role in the new administration, like Attorney General. God, he would make a great one - the antithesis of Gonzales. That, however, might not be good enough for the true Edwards supporters and of course, no one does like being told how to vote.

Perhaps the door would be open to a Vice Presidency if some hot and heavy negotiations ensue at the finish line?

[OzarkDem]

45. Because they were coerced, bullied and lied to

Don't expect them to be enthusiastic supporters of Clinton

[hisownpetard]

7. Edwards would definitely not give his support to Clinton, imo.

[Samantha]

19. That's what I think, but why do YOU think that?

I think he's sincere when he talks about reforming the way Washington works, and that means not supporting the candidate buttressed by the DLC. That organization is extremely pro-corporation. It is the corporations which are squelching the rights of the individual.

[hisownpetard]

23. I think he sees her as a complete corporatist and at odds with almost everything

he stands for.

[Samantha]

26. Thank you for your response - why do you think that ?

Just a gut feeling or do you see a lot of similarity in their campaigns?

[Sarah Ibarruri]

8. Edwards will not withdraw. If he can't be nominee, he'll spread the truth around the U.S.

Enough of fascist brainwashing by the Repukes and the right wing Dems.

[Samantha]

22. Okay, but let me ask you this

When one considers the overabundance of effort, passion and the sheer longevity of his campaign, along with that of his supporters, would you not hope that the sheer reward of that total thrust, if it cannot win the presidency for Edwards, it could be negotiated to achieve a seat for him at the table of the new administration? In that manner, his work and that of his supporters could continue. If he simply continues on to the convention and it's just a do or die effort, that will leave more time for him to get his message out, but once the nomination is lost, his message will fade into a memory. Would you not like to see something definitive materialize as a reward for all that effort, even if he does mean ultimately negotiating with "the enemy!"

[Sarah Ibarruri]

25. ONLY IF there are concessions made of the kind Edwards and his supporters want....

... so far I've heard none. Have you heard of any?

[Samantha]

27. No, just fuzzy wussy suggestions he should definitely play some

role. I think it's a compliment to Edwards that many outside of his base do not want to see him disappear after the election just because he does not get the nomination. But he's a good politician, tough to read, and I thought posting this Fineman remark might elicit some thoughts from those who know him best.

I personally think an Obama/Edwards ticket would make many at this site, and a lot of the Democratic party happy, but I think it would gag the DLC.

[Sarah Ibarruri]

33. I'd love the DLC gagged, but I'd like to hear something, anything from Obama indicating ....

... that he puts the little people first.

[TheWebHead]

10. i'm praying it will happen soon

right now edwards might as well be carrying a clinton campaign sign in his hand as long as he stays in the race.

[flyarm]

15. nonsense..and Edwards will not withdraw..how many times does he have to say it

for any of you to get it?

Edwards will not withdraw!!

and he has many many volunteers going to SC right now..me included ..i leave in a few minutes..

Edwards will go all the way to the convention..what part of that don't you get?

oh and i have that from Trippi and Bonior..so believe them or fineman who would like nothing more than Edwards to get out..he won't..get that..he won't!!

fly

[Samantha]

29. Well, you should know, any chance we could convince you to

keep us posted on your activities down there. It's going to be a hell of a fight, and any inside information you can pass along would be greatly appreciated. We bow at your feet flyarm as we make this request. And I can email Fineman for you, if you would like....

So what do you say -- will you have any time to flash us blurbs (you know of course Elizabeth Edwards has posted here, so I am sure there would be no objection to your contributions) to keep us legitimately informed as to what is going on down there?

And your passion for your candidate is admirable.

[flyarm]

31. RUNNING OUT THE DOOR..I WILL TRY..EOM

[Samantha]

36. Good luck on your quest, flyarm

and be safe.

and THANK YOU.

Sam

[THUNDER HANDS]

14. Edwards will not go to the convention

If he keeps polling in single digits in states, he'll drop out. Probably after Super Tuesday if he has a series of results like Nevada.

If he keeps polling in the 14-17% range, he'll probably stay in for a while.

[OzarkDem]

54. He has said he will and we can trust him on that

He will do fine.

[THUNDER HANDS]

56. with all due respect

he would never come out and say if he planned on dropping out soon.

[The River]

17. This Morning on CBS

Face The Nation John said that he was in through and beyond Super Tuesday.
Regardless of what happens in SC.

[TheWebHead]

20. of course he'll say that

he'd otherwise depress any potential voters from going out for him in SC. every candidate says they're in it for the long haul until they announce they're withdrawing.

[Samantha]

30. Thank you for this info

It's good to collect as much as we can so we can make an educated guess as to which way the chips will fall.

[comradebillyboy]

18. if Howard the Duck said it

it must be true because he is always 100% right

I would think that some Edwards supporters might be a little annoyed at the presumption they will all fall in line with candidate A or candidate B like little robots if Edwards falters or drops out. Especially since, here at DU, one candidate's backers think they are entitled to the automatic support of the Edwards people, but oddly enough treat both Edwards and his supporters with complete contempt.

[Samantha]

32. So you predict a simple split?

I don't always agree with Fineman but I have seldom seen him blow smoke purely for the sake of it since 2000, when he made a lot of uncomplimentary remarks about Gore. I think he might have learned a lesson. He seems to have "grown up" somewhat since then. That's more than I can say for some of the rest of them.

BTW, thank you for your response.

[comradebillyboy]

39. I actually think that the Edwars supporters

broadly speaking will lean more to Clinton. I am a bit cynical about the talking heads in general and at the moment I find Howard to be quite annoying, that may color my opinion.

And Samantha, its always a pleasure to engage in a civil and reasoned exchange of views. My complements to you on how you ask us to explain our opinions and answers while avoiding the nasty tone we have seen so much of at DU lately.

[Samantha]

44. Thank you, I really appreciate the comment

I really wanted to know the Edwards supporters thoughts on this remark; but it's such a touchy subject, I hesitated to ask. On the other hand, if one missed Fineman's remarks, it's a good thing to let those same supporters know what is being said.

So let me return the compliment; I appreciate the honesty they have shown for contributing their unabashed opinion. As someone who has felt in the past the absolute devastation of having her political hero drop out of the competition, I certainly do not want to inflict any type of wound on any DU'er with a tremendous passion for Edwards.

[Catchawave]

34. "supporters are saying" ? Com'on Howard....

What kind of hack journalism is that? Haven't heard anything remotely resembling his remark in the "camp".

John's in it for the long haul....to the convention :toast:

[Samantha]

37. Email 'em

Let him know what you really think!

[Catchawave]

41. Already did and cc'd to Chris Matthews :)

Like Tweety listens to me :silly:

[robbedvoter]

38. Fineman - winner of the MWO of the year. Like with Unions - Edwards' supporters

will make their individual decisions.(assuming withdrawal - which I doubt).
Some will go to Obama. Some will go to Hillary. Some will write Edwards in.

[OzarkDem]

40. Edwards will stay in

Howie has always hated Dems, why would a leopard change his spots? He knows getting Edwards out of the race would be the best thing for the GOP.

[ChiciB1]

42. I Stay With Edwards... No Matter What... I Won't Do ANYTHING Else!

I see NO DIFFERENCE, and I'm not just saying this... I just don't see much difference between the other two and what is running on the other side.

Except maybe Huckabee and his RELIGION crap!!

I have TWO Edwards yard signs in my yard... someone left a RON PAUL flyer on my door knob!! Weird!!

[Samantha]

47. Hey, fellow your political dream

as long as you can. I have been engaged for a long time now, and I can count on one hand the number of people who have truly inspired me. If you have a political hero within reach, stick it out as long as possible, and good luck.

[LongTomH]

43. Here's another possiblity: Edwards as kingmakter at the convention

If Edwards can pull in 15% or more, he could throw his delegates to Obama at the convention and make Obama the winner:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4129081

I would hope that, before throwing his delegates to Obama, John meets with Obama to discuss whether Obama could move some of his positions closer to John's

For, the record, I want John to win; but, if that's not possible, at least, let's salvage as much of what he and we are fighting for as we can in this election cycle.

[Samantha]

49. I wonder how many combined delegates they have?

If I get a moment later, I will try and check it out. I think Obama would be conducive to negotiating, but that's just my gut, I have no facts. And I do sincerely hope that something positive comes out of the Herculean effort Edwards, Elizabeth and their supporters have expended. If it ends up not being the nomination, whatever is the second-best desirable result, I hope comes your way. You guys earned it.

[Perky]

46. I think it splits differently depending on the region of the country

[Samantha]

50. That's an interesting thought and probably the most accurate

prediction.

Thank you for your response.

[jenmito]

48. I saw that. If Edwards stays in the race and earns delegates and then drops out at the end,

can he give his delegates to Obama?

[Samantha]

52. Often in the past people in that position

have used the cards they hold to negotiate for something they really want. I do not pretend to speak for Edwards or his camp. But let's assume he wanted a specific position in the cabinet (for benefit of this discussion). If the delegate count is so close between Hillary and Obama, neither has the minimum needed, Edwards could throw his in the direction of his personal favorite, in exchange for a negotiated "thank you." If his support went along and moved in mass to support that negotiation, yes, Edwards could "make a king" or a "queen" whichever applies!

[jenmito]

55. Thanks for your understanding of it...

Sounds about right to me. :hi:

[tokenlib]

51. Edwards is getting marginalized with time...

...if he wants to make a difference, if he really wants change, then he needs to move before Feb 5th.. If not, then Hillary will win the nomination. If he wants Clinton as a nominee then he should stay in. But if he wants his message to stay alive then he needs to make a decision.

[Samantha]

53. So your prediction is ...

and who are you supporting? BTW, I have no candidate in the race as of now.

Thanks for your response.

[tokenlib]

57. I support Obama after a wrenching decision

Edwards speaks the truth about the corporate influence and power, but sadly he never took off. His message will die with triangulating Hillary as our nominee. I'd rather take my chances with Obama. By John staying in the dabates--any joint criticism of Hillary is seen as the boys ganging up on her.
Same with Kucinich staying in the race. If his people don't want Hillary, they need to make a choice. A few percent may make the difference in many states on Feb 5.

[Samantha]

58. I do think it's tough to make a decision between Obama and Edwards

They both have so much going for them, they both have a very clear message as to where they want to take the Country, and each has a unique style. I hope regardless of what lies ahead both stay in the political picture somehow, someway because both their voices are very needed.

It did not occur to me until I walked away from this thread that having an opportunity to spill one's political guts after suffering through a night like Saturday night can be very therapeutic, especially when the tone of the thread is set and a clear signal is being given by those who participate that there is an earnestness and passion to mourn (if I might use that word) a political disappointment without the disruption of rude, insensitive people making inappropriate remarks.

Looking down the road, I believe we all will feel the same on one day or another about a candidate we support and an unfortunate political loss (if we haven't already). I hope we remember we always have each other and find a corner to quietly air our thoughts. With that therapeutic outlet, we find the resolve to make positive decisions about what we do next and look forward to the new political day.

To me, the other great thing that came out of this thread is the promise from flyarm -- now making his way to South Carolina -- to keep us posted as to how things shake out there. I look forward to his reports, and if I see them come this way, I will keep them bumped for the rest of you guys to see.

Sam

[Infinite Hope]

59. He won't withdraw. But as I've said the entire time, he will never "send" his delegates to Hillary.

Which is why it's better for Obama that Edwards remain in the race and keep Edwards' supporters under one roof until the convention.

[Yael]

60. The pundits are desperate to appear relevant, I see.