For Democrats, Nevada Is a Throw of the Dice

[question everything]

The Wall Street Journal

For Democrats, Nevada Is a Throw of the Dice
A Win Would Provide a Boost, but Candidates Must Gamble That Voters Know the Caucus Game
By JUNE KRONHOLZ
January 16, 2008; Page A7

LAS VEGAS -- The voter-registration office here in Clark County says it received 4,025 new-voter registrations last week and 2,240 the week before that. In a presidential race where new voters are trending toward Barack Obama, and in a state where Saturday's Democratic caucus may attract no more than 50,000 people, those new voters could tip the balance... But what could decide the winner here is whether Nevada voters can figure out what a caucus is and then decide to attend.

(snip)

When Nevada's Democrats caucused four years ago and just 9,000 voters showed up at 17 caucus sites around the state to endorse John Kerry, the nomination was already sewn up. For this year, under pressure from Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid -- of Nevada -- the party made the state one of four early-decision contests. Republicans piggy-backed the date and called their own caucuses. In an affront that Nevadans still complain about, New Hampshire leapfrogged Nevada to vote second and steal the nation's attention. In a further affront, the Republican candidates have largely ignored the state, conceding it and its substantial Mormon population to former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. But Mr. Obama's first-place finish in Iowa and Mrs. Clinton's in New Hampshire have added some sizzle to the Democratic race.

(snip)

The Las Vegas's 60,000-member Culinary Workers Union, which represents workers on the Las Vegas Strip, is an organizing force here. Among other things, it claims to have accounted for 20% of Clark County's new citizens last year by shepherding them through its citizenship program. In a bow to the union, the Democratic Party last March agreed to set up so-called at-large caucus sites in nine Strip hotels on Saturday to accommodate workers who can't attend caucuses in their neighborhoods. Under the party formula, the casino caucuses also could elect 10 times the delegates of a neighborhood caucus that draws the same size crowd.

(snip)

Nevada's caucuses are patterned after Iowa's, with each candidate's supporters gathering in a different corner of the room. The union's endorsement could make it uncomfortable for members to gather in any other corner than Mr. Obama's... The caucuses' timing during a holiday weekend adds to the unpredictability. Sen. Reid initially predicted a turnout of 100,000 Democrats, or about one of every four in the state. But Nevada has notoriously low turnouts, and thousands of people working elsewhere than the Strip won't get off from work to caucus. Mr. Reid also has promoted the importance of the state's caucus by insisting that Nevada "looks like America" because of its Hispanic population, now 24% of the state.

(snip)



URL for this article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120044574076592927.html (subscription)

[liberalmuse]

1. I predict Hillary will win Nevada.

But I'm usually wrong, so rejoice.

[question everything]

2. Nothing to rejoice

I don't understand why the casino caucuses can have 10 times more delegates.

And I am usually wrong, too.

[durrrty libby]

3. That's what we call craps democracy

[ursi]

4. All of Nevada's counties except Clark County and Washoe County

are factored this way and this is done in other places. Nevada didn't think this up. Only the urban centers are counted differently here. This isn't news. Move on.

[question everything]

5. This is not democracy

It is not when there are not secret ballots - as Iowa had - and when we do not follow the one person one vote rule.

I admit, I just realized this when I read the story and then saw Clinton on CNN commenting on this.

I don't understand the politics and if the other campaigns agreed to this whenever it was decided, they were wrong. Regardless of who this Byzantine rule will help.

I am not aware that the votes of Los Angeles County are counted differently from the votes of Mendocino County.

Shame on you for supporting this.

[JackORoses]

6. they don't have 10 times the delegates, that is fuzzy math

Noone can know the ratio until we know how many people turn out.

The reason that the delegate count is higher at these At-Large Caucuses is because they include people from more than one locality.

Those people who will be using them would have composed many more smaller state caucuses.
The higher delegate count for the at-Large sites is supposed to make up for this.

[papau]

8. it still is unfair - but a real primary would be too easy I guess

[question everything]

10. I still don't understand why it has to be so convoluted

why not a simple one person one voice.

[TankLV]

7. Ummm - this is Nevada's FIRST "caucus" - the others were PRIMARYS...

Nevada is trying something NEW this time around...

Learn your subject before you spew bullshit...

[papau]

9. Nevada has had the "caucus" system for decades - but a presidential preference vote like the GOP

caucus is having would be nice to have had in the 2008 Nevada process.

[Imagevision]

11. Vegas money is favoring Obama...