The big story coming out of South Carolina is Obama's collapsing white support, placing 3rd

[Herman Munster]

The racism and victimization strategy will win him black support and South Carolina but in he process turn off the whites that supported him. He will become Jesse Jackson in 1984, 1988. He'll win some primaries in heavily black states and lose all the rest.

It's a losing strategy for him.

[skipos]

1. How's Hillary's strategy working out with the black vote?

Nice to see you so concerned with give Obama advice. Are you going to volunteer for his campaign?

[Anouka]

77. Blacks are a minority. You need the majority (whites) behind you to win.

And that's what the importance of Herman's OP is about, if his title is the truth. Obama's support has always been predominantly white, *not* black. So what would it say that the Clinton's use of race, and then cynically accusing Obama of being the one to bring it up..... is working?

We'd need the link, though.


May I ask, who is Herman, and what is Herman's story here?

[Skidmore]

108. It wasn't intended to affect the black vote. It was intended to appeal

to those white voters in SC who haven't quite shaken hands with the Civil Rights Act yet. A wink and a nod to the Dixiecrats among us.

[Essene]

113. This type of smearing also lowers minority turn-out. See 2001 NYC mayoral race

White candidate Mark Green got very nasty against Fernando Ferrer with smears and racist literature.

He won the primary, and minority turn-out tanked. The democrats had that election for sure, but in the general election there were actually less votes for Green than entire democrats in the primary.

In other words... more people voted in both primaries (the first and then the run-off) than voted for the democrat in the generation election.

In walked Mike Bloomberg.

Stuff like this only hurts the party and the people...

[babylonsister]

2. Oh yea? Link? No crickets tonight, Herman. nt

[Herman Munster]

4. among whites hillary 43 edwards 30 obama 19

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_SC_Release_011308.pdf

[Proud2BAmurkin]

14. Holy CRAP Obama has screwn hisself

wow

[usregimechange]

Until you see that his Black support in the state is about 70%

[David Zephyr]

117. "hisself"

LOL!

[babylonsister]

41. Thanks for not telling me what that link was. .PDF

I should have known. Post the info.

[Joe the Revelator]

86. And in the December poll, he only had 24% support, so he lost the MOE

http://i.a.cnn.net/cnn/2007/images/12/14/topsc2.pdf

Hillary, on the other hand, has seen her non-white support completely erode. Why is this a big story against Obama? Herman?

[David Zephyr]

116. Your own link shows Obama landsliding in S. Carolina. You must not know how to read.

Either that are you like to make up headlines that don't match a story and then create an entire thread around the lie.

[niceypoo]

11. Life isnt a 'link;'

Reality doesnt have a URL.

[Bonobo]

27. I love it, plagarizing other lame-ass posts.

Tee hee.

[niceypoo]

67. Logical fallacies 101

Person A makes claim X
Person B attacks person A
Therefore X is false

The fallacy of ad hominim

[MadBadger]

3. So the big story coming out of SC is his 13 point lead?

Are you kidding me?

[Herman Munster]

7. he will have lost the argument that he can unite people and transcend race

[Occam Bandage]

23. Looks like he did a decent job of that in IA and NH. He will in NV, too.

[girl gone mad]

37. To be fair,

Hillary has lost that argument, too.

[Herman Munster]

70. hillary never ran on that

hillary is running on helping people's lives.

[OzarkDem]

Silly kids

still believing the polls? Haven't you learned how unreliable they are?

[Colobo]

5. Thanks, Munster.

I bet you would really give him some good advice on how to beat Hillary, right? You want him to be succesful against her, right?

[niceypoo]

6. Ive been saying this for a while now and get attacked for it every time

But it isnt that hard to see it coming.

[Bonobo]

8. Oh no, he's losing racist white southerners! We're doomed!

[niceypoo]

15. All white southerners are racists?

Isn't Edwards a white southerner?

[Bonobo]

21. Huh? Jerksayswhat?

[JI7]

35. they are if they accuse minorities of playing "the race card"

[niceypoo]

71. All white southerners have accused 'minorities' of playing the race card?

Well isn't that interesting? Too many fallacies in that statement to even bother with.

[JI7]

72. i didn't say all the person i replied to said it

that's why i said "if"

[IndianaJones]

18. bwaha. nt.

[jlake]

19. But his campaign is about transcending race....and he is supposedely able to win the South in the GE

[Bonobo]

30. Well, we'll see won't we?

Me. I'm hoping that Both Hil and Obama cancel each other out and we get a real progressive in there.

[spag68]

48. That gets my vote.

[jbnow]

57. His polls numbers show doom

http://www.raleigh2.com/default.asp?sourceid=&smenu=1&twindow=Default&mad=No&sdetail=366&wpage=1&skeyword=&sidate=&ccat=&ccatm=&restate=&restatus=&reoption=&retype=&repmin=&repmax=&rebed=&rebath=&subname=&pform=&sc=2502&hn=raleigh2&he=.com">here

Public Policy Polling of Raleigh said it performed a poll of South Carolina voters on Friday and Saturday.

According to that poll, the results on the Democratic side of the presidential primaries break down as follows:
Barack Obama with 44% of the vote;
Hillary Clinton with 31%
John Edwards with 16%
and Dennis Kucinich with 1%

The pollsters said in their report that Obama leads the Midlands and the Low Country of South Carolina by significant margins. However, the race is closer in the Upstate, where John Edwards was born where Obama and Clinton are tied at 32%, with Edwards getting 28% of the vote.

Only 13%, we can't be sure that's outside of the paperless Diebold margin of error.
http://www.statesman.com/news/content/news/stories/nation/01/14/0114campaign.html">In a National Poll there has only been a 25 point swing toward him

Sen. Clinton of New York had dominated in national polls from the outset, holding a 30-point advantage as recently as a month ago, but the competitiveness of the first two contests appears to have reverberated among Democrats across the country. Obama, a senator from Illinois, won big in the Iowa caucuses; Clinton scored a narrow victory in New Hampshire's primary.

In the Post poll, 42 percent of likely Democratic voters said they support Clinton, and 37 percent said they back Obama. Clinton's support is down 11 percentage points from a month ago; Obama's is up 14 points.

Former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina held the third position, with 11 percent. U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio followed, with 2 percent.

[VotesForWomen]

101. if the clintons are 'racist,' then obama doesn't stand a chance in the GE. nt

[CyberPieHole]

9. If he continues to frame this race as a "race' thing...he's done...

at least, that's what I think.

[Occam Bandage]

31. Continues? Obama hasn't said a word about racism, and neither has his campaign.

[dugggy]

100. Race is an issue automatically when you have the first

black running for president. You can't play an ostrich and bury
your head in sand.

[Kittycat]

33. He isn't, but the clinton's are quick to make up that tidbit.

They're the one that made the gaffe, if even mis-interpreted by black leaders - they still should think before they speak (case in point *bush). All I've seen from the Obama camp is them saying it isn't about race, it's about races coming together as one race.

[jbnow]

63. Please stop. He has not done that.

The media plays it up a lot so people talk about it all and it might become an issue.

But not because of him. He has never framed it that way. Remember he gets mocked about the one nation thing?

[AX10]

10. Shelby Steele said that this would happen to him.

[FlyingSquirrel]

12. Gad. I've had it. You have nothing to add.

It's time to use the ignore feature.

[Joe the Revelator]

You claim a collapse...what was his white support in SC in a previous poll?

nt

[Colobo]

13. 62% of "Other" races say they prefer him, Munster!

Why is Hillary collapsing on that area?

[jackson_dem]

99. She is collapsing among blacks and minorities in SC because her campaign played the race card

Obamites can see that but can't see the equal and opposite reaction.

[Egnever]

16. I agree

I think he needs to get away from this racism story. I don't think it helps him even if it may hurt her some places.

Of course this is his chance to bring people together on it. Some good statements from him on the subject that make people rise above it could seal the deal for him.

If he can inspire on this he wins I think. Hes got two weeks or so to do it :P

[dkf]

17. This was Clinton's plan. Ergo the comments on MLK

She engineered this deliberately.

She is not interested in healing the country and in debating the true merits.

She sickens me.

[Cameron27]

24. Total BS

[Occam Bandage]

28. If I were a Clinton supporter, I'd see such a claim as heartening.

If I believed my candidate could engineer such a plan, I would have faith they were unstoppable.

[Cameron27]

36. If they could only come up with a memo

hinting of that surreptitious plan.

[Occam Bandage]

39. Such a leaked memo would utterly destroy the Clinton campaign. The absence of such a memo

is not evidence for or against.

[Kittycat]

34. Completely agree. Just another pathetic politician doing anything to win.

What a loser she is.

[Hello_Kitty]

55. Exactly. You can give the benefit of the doubt on some of the others but not that one.

That was a deliberate slap at the Black community to score cheap points with the large segment of the white population who resent their privileges being threatened.

[creeksneakers2]

61. Hillary brought up MLK when she was asked about MLK

The question was also about the change issue that she answered. Does the theoretical plot have a planted question?

[niceypoo]

79. Everytime Obama throws a fit

It was Hillarys plan. Everytime Obama loses, its a conspiracy. The sky is falling!

[cali]

106. He hasn't thrown a fit. Ever. And no matter how many times you make that

false claim it doesn't become any truer. The Clintons may win their nomination, but they'll lose in a general without considerable AA support, and what do you think dems will think of them then?

[alcibiades_mystery]

80. The whole thing was very clearly engineered to provoke claims of racism

That's obvious enough. What's less obvious is why Duers who support Obama keep playing this Clintonite game. I suggest that when they bring up ANYTHING related to racism, you tell them to have a nice day and be done with it.

[niceypoo]

88. Umm, Hillary was asked about Obamas comments on MLK and Kennedy

Lemme guess, she planted the comments in Obamas mouth? Just how did she, 'engineer' that?

[alcibiades_mystery]

92. The question was obviously NOT a plant.

It's the answer that matters. All she had to do - all they have to do - is provoke accusations of racism. That's it. It's not particularly hard in this sensitive environment.

Any number of interview questions would have worked. She just happened to get that one. It's the answer that matters, not the question.

Nice try, though. Have a good day! :hi:

[Essene]

110. No, it was part of a systematic smear and race baiting campaign trick that's working

[Barack_America]

20. Were you reading your tea leaves or are you going to provide us with a link?

[Dems Will Win]

22. SC is a special case because Edwards is Favorite Son, being BORN THERE

So Obama is still golden. Sorry.

Edwards is pulling a full 30% of the white vote. Actually helping Obama beat Hillary overall in this case!

[niceypoo]

25. Apparently, many of his supporters believe that racism and victimization is a winning strategy

Judging by their attitude towards it. I wonder what their reaction will be when it starts eating into his support, explain it away with a conspiracy theory like when he lost New Hampshire?

[dkf]

56. I was sick when Bill Shaheen brought this into the equation.

This was not coming from Obama. This is people getting offended at Hillary and her people.

I bet Bill and Hillary were sitting around wondering what semi-innocuous statement she could make that would perceive as racist so then she could play the victim and protest at how hurt she was that others would accuse her of being racist.

They knew that the typical black candidate fails. They had to turn Obama into that "black candidate".

Now he has to turn it around.

I see why he couldn't turn the cheek yet though. To do that is to betray Black America.

[niceypoo]

74. The fact that Obama refuses to condemn it

and it is all being done in his name says a lot. So much for his 'togetherness' campaign. Running on victimization might help him with blacks, but it will hurt him in the long run. People want substance, not a crybaby.

[Occam Bandage]

26. So it dropped from what to what?

[Joe the Revelator]

29. You can't have a "collapse" without comparing it to past totals

When did he have the majority of white support in SC?

[loveangelc]

32. and at the same time, he's gaining nationally.

[Proud2BAmurkin]

42. You didn't see today's NYT and CNN polls.

brace yourself

[Joe the Revelator]

And I guess you didn't see the Rasmussen and ABC polls

You can't pick and choose.

[Hello_Kitty]

38. Racebaiting by Hillary worked, I guess. nt

[Joe the Revelator]

40. It didn't work, there was no collapse...when did Obama ever have strong support by SC whites?

nt

[niceypoo]

44. Allowing others to pull the race card, while he pretends to be above it?

How long before that house of cards comes crashing down on him?

[Occam Bandage]

51. Obama has not pulled the race card, nor has his campaign. Why are you repeating MSM lies?

[alcibiades_mystery]

84. It's best not to engage a fanatic

Wish niceypoo a nice day and ignore him/her.

[Hello_Kitty]

50. Oh I know, I'm just messing with the OP

Those Hillbots get real bothered when you point out their candidate's racist campaign tactics. Wouldn't surprise me if Edwards did better than her with those white voters too.

[2rth2pwr]

43. I am so sad to see the campaign of Unity

and "hope" implode.

[Occam Bandage]

47. It's truly the most heartbroken who give an eulogy when the patient sneezes.

[2rth2pwr]

81. I like that saying.

I don't see any attribution through google. Is it yours?

[Occam Bandage]

93. Came up with it on the spot,

to the best of my knowledge. Never know with turns of phrase, though; they have a way of sneaking in your brain and hiding out there for years. There've been plenty of times I've come across things I thought I had invented weeks ago.

[niceypoo]

49. In the end, we're going to see he's just all hype.

[Occam Bandage]

52. So you hope.

[niceypoo]

62. So we have seen thus far.

So much for all the 'togetherness' Obama was supposed to foster. His silence instigates division.

[Occam Bandage]

Obama's coalition is intact, despite your attempts to foster division in the Democratic party.

[Proud2BAmurkin]

64. I've already seen nt

[smalll]

45. I've been thinking the same kind of thing. Obama will become Jacksonized -

Jackson actually did relatively well - in 1988, he got 29% of the total votes in the primaries. But it is a losing strategy in the end; even if he COULD win the nomination, he would lose the general election.

As Hillary has solidified her support amongst women with semi-crying, "I found my own voice" stuff, so too is Obama solidifying his black support with things like Obama's recent visit to the Pentacostals, and Michelle's recent comment about "There ain't no black folks in Iowa." He'll voice will morph from it's current high-toned Sindey Poitieresque accent into something more full-throated and Jacksonian.

As he Jacksonizes, I wonder, will Obama ALSO tack to the left? Jackson performed as well as he did with enthusiastic support from BOTH blacks AND leftish whites. If it happens, DU-in-general will fall in love all over again with Obama, only to have its hopes crushed by Hillary soon, or by McCain (or whoever) later.

[Occam Bandage]

53. So you hope.

[ginchinchili]

46. Another possible scenario is that he wins the nomination...

and loses the general election because America doesn't want to be hearing cries of racism for 4 years every time someone questions or criticizes a President Obama, not from Obama, but from some of his supporters.

[AX10]

59. Well, it is happening all the time around here.

[emilyg]

60. Good point.

[niceypoo]

78. This is what is happening now

And only Obama can stop it. If he doesnt stop it, we know that is what we can expect, Al Sharpton news conferences everytime Obama disagrees with someone or is criticized.

[goodgd_yall]

104. I thought of that today

I think that one IS a possibility. After seeing the posts on DU, one can see that being a factor.

Whether the charges of racism are true or not, or whether that really happens, Americans are afraid of that and don't want to hear about racism, true or not.

[Konza]

54. I thought his strategy was to

avoid making race an issue.
What team Clinton has done successfully was to remind the voters that he's black, when most voters had ignored race. It's actually quite cunning.
Perfect Clinton-Dick Morris style politics. By using surrogates to interject race into the debate, Obama supporters are now drawn down into the muck with them.
It may well lead to Obama's losing the nomination. He was successful as the "Change" candidate. Hillary had to get him off that message because she would lose that battle. So turn him into the "black" candidate.
So this trickle of incidents that keeps race in the news cycle merely reminds voters that the "change" candidate also happens to be the black guy. You really do have to hand it to Team Clinton.

2 downsides to this plan:
1. She is now completely defenseless against "dirty campaigning". No one will ever rise to her defense in November, and it will be anything goes at Hillary, although it was probably going that way anyhow. Problem for Hillary is she has ceded any moral high ground before the contest has even started. So we should all be prepared for it now, as this will be the nastiest, sleaziest political campaign in history.
2.By pissing off the African American community, Hillary will lose a crucial constituency come November, one that that could come to her aid, much like they did her husband-the African American vote.

But she's in a bind. She has to personally destroy Barack Obama within a 3 week window, win the nomination and then hope she can repair the damage she has done to her party before the general election.

I don't like what is going on, but I can understand why she feels the need to do this.

[babylonsister]

66. Wow, yours is a great analysis. I don't like it either, and I hope the

bind gets her before Obama. I wish you'd post this on its own thread.

[Konza]

83. I've just been wondering how he counters

It's really a delicate mess. He can't let these periodic insults slide. But if he tries to counter them Hillary will scream "There he goes again, talking about race!"
It's classic Dick Morris-Karl Rove kinda genius.
And we will know if this is a well designed strategy by watching Team Clinton this upcoming week. I expect a few more "oopsies", misspeaks and "accidents" from Clinton campaign people in the next 10 days, just enough to remind the media and the voters that they are running against a black guy.
But on the other hand I think they've probably already done what they set out to do, which is to remind white Americans that the candidate they all kinda like also happens to be a black guy.

Obama was doing extremely well when he was focused on his message of change, hope and One America. By pulling him down into the mire of race debates Team Clinton has him off his core message. He has a serious decision to make in the next 3-4 days: join in the mudfest or try to rise above it and take the hits that are coming.

If he goes down into the Clinton mudpit to fight them on their terms he loses his appeal as a different kind of politician. He can sleaze Clinton, Gawd knows there is enough Clinton sleaze out there to keep Fox news anchors happy for years. But if he does this, doesn't he become just another Bush-Clinton kind of politician?

But if he stays aloof from it Hillary's people can just keep dropping mini-bombs on him every 48 hours on the news. They don't even have to do much, because the media will do the rest for them. One or two misspeaks, "Aw, shucks now, I shouldn't have said it that way" a week will accomplish what they want.

It's a hell of a mess.
But we get the politics we deserve.

[alcibiades_mystery]

91. See my post here, which makes a similar argument

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4053932

[Konza]

118. Did I call it or what?

Dan Abrams running the "Obama plays Bitch Song" story tonight at 9:00 CST
Nevermind that it's not true. Nevermind he got it off the NY Post. He ran with it and now millions of Americans (Ok, maybe dozens) who are watching his show are now hearing that Mean and Nasty Mr. Obama is playing offensive rap songs just to insult Hillary.

I predicted one or two of these this week and Team Clinton has never let me down

[jab105]

68. Ding ding ding

We got a winner...

That is exactly what is happening...

I've been in a funk for a few days over it...because - well - it's working...

[alcibiades_mystery]

89. It's absolutely working

Dirty as hell politics works. It's deflating, which is exactly the goal: deflate anything like idealism, make politics ugly as hell so you can crowd out young people, independents, and new voters - all constituencies that hate ugly politics. This is the Clinton strategy. Her supporters on this board know it implicitly: spread ugliness and "smash mouth" politics. Make it horrendous and unpleasant. Kill any hope. Kill any promise of change. Same as it ever was, they sneer. It's a complete disgrace.

[fujiyama]

76. You got it

Nasty shortsighted thinking.

By the posts of her supporters, it shows the real racial divide even among Democrats. Many whites love to accuse minorities of playing the race card, when it is in fact the opposite.

[alcibiades_mystery]

87. "She has to personally destroy Barack Obama within a 3 week window"

That's exactly correct.

[alittlelark]

58. Uh, yeah........

wear your avatar on your sleeve much?


Much ado about attempting to create/ awaken racist America?



Be ashamed.

[Joe the Revelator]

65. So Herman, do you have those numbers supporting your claims of a "collapse" yet?

or are you just going to post and run?

[ProSense]

69. Big story from same poll

here

[creeksneakers2]

73. This is very bad news

Voters there are dividing into two sides. Once that starts everybody loses. Hillary can't win in November without black votes and Obama can't win without white votes.

I'm a Hillary fan but it was great to see Obama win Iowa because there was the chance that we reached a milestone for overcoming racism. There was good feeling all over America.

I don't blame the Clintons because they said nothing racist. Their remarks were twisted. I don't blame Obama because he isn't the one who twisted the remarks. The media wants racial conflict for its excitement value. They probe every supporter of each side for anything that might offend the other.

It all gets reported and quickly spreads. Obama should disavow all this and tell his supporters that the Clintons were misunderstood. Hillary should stop saying that the Obama campaign is making race an issue.

Supporters from both sides should let all this go. It may not be too late. Perceived plots aren't taking place. Neither candidate is stupid enough to want this lose/lose conflict.

[origin1286]

75. Dumbass

It's Hillary's strategy forced on Obama. Nice spin.

Her goal was to make it a racial war. I agree if she succeeds it's a losing strategy.

[niceypoo]

90. More victimization theories

[alcibiades_mystery]

94. Actually, it's just political strategy

You're surely not so naive as to think that "making it a slug fest" isn't a time-tested political strategy when your opponents core supporters are somewhat idealistic? It turns them off to the whole thing. It's old as the hills. Don't pretend to be ignorant. I know you're smart.

[niceypoo]

97. Actually, it is a cockamamie theory...

...with absolutely no basis in reality, that you just made up.

[alcibiades_mystery]

98. Uh huh

You have a nice night now.

[Essene]

111. The clinton campaign engaged in race BAITING and smearing. It's working

[mrdemocrat78]

82. It's not his strategy

What it "is is" Clinton's strategy to make people think Obama is playing the race card.

[Joe the Revelator]

85. Here are the FACTS: Obama has lost the MOE among whites according to the last SC poll

http://i.a.cnn.net/cnn/2007/images/12/14/topsc2.pdf

He lost 5 points with white, which would be within statistical fluctuations. Hillary on the other hand has lost a considerable amount of her non-white support since this december poll was taken.

Why is this a big story for Obama again?

[Joe the Revelator]

95. This thread should be closed due to it being complete bullshit.

nt

[MindMatter]

96. Big mistake to make Oprah and Jackson the main faces of his campaign

He had a real chance to really make this colorblind, as in judging a man by th content of his character rather than the color of his skin. By making Oprah and Jackson the prominent faces of the campaign, this has the opposite effect. That shouts, "Isn't it time for a brother to get a shot?"

Maybe it is time for a brother, but this is a losing strategy. Big mistake.

[Hekate]

102. What about John Edwards? South Carolina is his state --I'm hoping he'll excel there.

I know it's just a pipe dream at this point, but I'd be ecstatic if Edwards won SC, thus giving each of our three candidates an early win. I don't want the race to be over before it's over.

Hekate

[goodgd_yall]

103. Can't agree with you on this one.

I don't think he's going to only win "heavily black states." And as for comparing his campaign to Jackson's, Jesse Jackson was way too radical for America---he didn't have a chance of winning. The only thing Obama has in common with Jackson is being a democrat.

[cali]

105. Clinton's collapse of African American support is just as big a story

unless you think that support is just unimportant. Most people know exactly what the Clintons are doing and that they are willing to do anything to win. Yep, I think she'll get the nomination and if McCain is the nominee- and that's looking probable- she'll be slammed in state after state. The Clintons cannot win without a big African American turnout. The Clintons are destroying their legacy and well on their way to becoming widely disliked. When she loses that will be unleashed.

[Essene]

112. Not really. Evn if she loses SC, it will have become racialized thanks to her. That benefits her

Even if she loses SC, it will be framed in racial terms by the media.

She wins either way...

[Jeremy of Kansas]

107. Er... This is why I talk about his electability issues!

A lot of people shriek at Hillary as not being electable, but look at this? Do you think a black person can win Ohio? I got to point this out, I'm sorry, I wish I didn't need to, but I think it needs to discussed.

- Jeremy of Kansas

[Essene]

109. So scary that Hillary can get away with this... *anger*

Fools believing Obama is the one race baiting... just utterly disgusts me.

[fightindonkey]

114. I Already Saw This Coming. Even If He Were To Win SC, He Has Turned Off Every, Race Card = LOSS

[JAbuchan08]

115. Clinton gains support among whites and loses among blacks - the proof is in the pudding

perception is reality.
Obama has nothing to gain by dividing whites and blacks, so why would he? Clinton has everything to gain by limiting Obama's demographic appeal - so why wouldn't she?