If Obama Wins SC, then the AA vote shifts to him across the nation. Clinton would win 10-15 states

[Dems Will Win]

If Obama wins SC and the black vote shifts to him by 60% 70%, and the NV disenfranchisement of Latinos by Clinton surrogates goes forward, Clinton would only win

NY
NJ
PA
OH
OK
AR
AK
UT?
KY?
KS?
and maybe CA

African-American populations are too high in TX, GA, MS, LA, MD, IL, IN, and of course DC, for Clinton to have a chance. PR would go Obama to protest Clinton's disenfranchisement of Latinos in NV.

Open Primaries and Caucuses are

AL, GA, ID, IN, MO, MS, MN, MT, ND, OH, TN, VT, VA, WA, WS - all helping Obama with Indies

If Obama equals Clinton in dollars and organization, there are then not many states that would be clearly easy for her to win big in, and a lot more states for him to win big.

Given his endorsement by Tim Johnson in SD, and Daschle in SD, McKaskill in MO, Ben Nelson in NE and the AZ Governor, Obama is now likely to clean up in the West, including OR, WA, ID and MT. Simply more independent and progressive minded.

Conclusion: If he takes SC and the black vote, Obama wins around 30-35 states after that, Clinton about 7-10. Of course all delegates are split proportionately and it looks now like Obama will lead in Superdelegates by a good margin. Out of 800 or so Superdelegates, Clinton only got pledges from 160! That means the rest are not crazy about her or outright opposed. So Obama is well-positioned to pick up most of the other 500 and pass her as he racks up the states.

Obama should win the nomination by at least a few hundred delegates and it might be several hundred in the end.

Could be wrong, but that's the way it's shaping up if SC blacks move over to Obama/Winfrey.

List of states

Alabama - Open Primary (2/5). Deadline (10 Days - 1/26).
Alaska - Caucuses (2/5). Deadline (30 Days - 1/6).
Arizona - Primary (2/5). Deadline (30 Days - 1/6).
Arkansas - Open Primary (2/5). Deadline (30 Days - 1/6).
California - Primary (2/5). Deadline (15 Days - 1/21).
Colorado - Caucuses (2/5). Deadline (29 Days - 1/7).
Connecticut - Primary (2/5). Deadline (12 Noon, 2/4).
Delaware - Primary (2/5). Deadline (24 Days - 1/12).
District of Columbia - Primary (2/12). Deadline (30 Days - 1/13)
Florida - Primary (1/29). Deadline (29 Days - 1/1).
Georgia - Open Primary (2/5). Deadline (1/7).
Hawaii - Open Caucuses (3/2). Deadline (30 Days - 2/1).
Idaho - Open Primary (5/27). Deadline (May 2 for pre registration. Registration allowed on Election Day).
Illinois - Primary (2/5). Deadline (27 Days - 1/9).
Indiana - Open Primary (5/6). Deadline (28 Days - 4/9).
Iowa - Caucus (1/3). Deadline (10 days - 12/24/07).
Kansas - Caucuses (2/9). Deadline (15 Days - 1/25).
Kentucky - Primary (5/20). Deadline (28 Days - 4/22).
Louisiana - Primary (2/9). Deadline (1/11).
Maine - Caucuses (February 1 through February 3). Deadline (None - Day of Election though check the rules regarding this caucus).
Maryland - Primary (2/12). Deadline (21 Days - 1/22).
Massachusetts - Closed Primary (2/5). Deadline (20 Days - 1/16).
Michigan - Open Primary (1/15). Deadline (30 Days - 1/6).
Minnesota - Open Caucuses (2/5 *). Deadline (20 Days - 1/16).
Mississippi - Open Primary (3/11). Deadline (30 Days - 2/10).
Missouri - Open Primary (2/5). Deadline (4th Wednesday Prior - 1/9).
Montana - Open Primary (6/3). Deadline (30 Days - 5/4).
Nebraska - Primary (5/13 *). Deadline (Second Friday before an election, 5/2).
Nevada - Caucuses (1/19). Deadline (30 Days - 12/20/07).
New Hampshire - Semi-Open Primary (1/8). Deadline (10 Days - 12/28/07). <8>
New Jersey - Primary (2/5). Deadline (21 Days - 1/15).
New Mexico - Primary (6/3). Deadline (28 Days - 5/6).
New York - Closed Primary (2/5). Deadline (25 Days - 1/11).
North Carolina - Primary (5/6 *). Deadline (30 Days - 4/6).
North Dakota - Open Caucuses (2/5). Deadline (30 Days - 1/6).
Ohio - Open Primary (3/4). Deadline (30 Days - 2/3).
Oklahoma - Closed Primary (2/5). Deadline (24 Days - 1/12).
Oregon - Closed Primary (5/20). Deadline (21 Days - 4/29).
Pennsylvania - Primary (4/22). Deadline (30 Days - 3/23).
Rhode Island - Primary (3/4). Deadline (30 Days - 2/3).
South Carolina - Open Primary (1/19). Deadline (30 Days - 12/20/07).
South Dakota - Closed Primary (6/3). Deadline (15 Days - 5/19).
Tennessee - Open Primary (2/5). Deadline (30 Days - 1/6).
Texas - Semi-Open Primary (3/4) & Closed Caucus (begins 3/4, schedule based on party rules). Voting in primary is prerequisite for caucusing at precinct convention, which convenes after primary polls close. Deadline (2/4/08).
Utah - Closed Primary (2/5). Deadline (30 Days - 1/6).
Vermont - Open Primary (3/4). Deadline (2/27/08).
Virginia - Open Primary (2/12). Deadline (29 Days - 1/14).
Washington - Open Caucus (2/9) & Primary (2/19). This is a two step process. Deadline (30 Days via mail or online, 15 Days in Person Friday, 1/25).
West Virginia -Closed Primary (18 Delegates at the State Convention on 2/5 (ask the state party for details), 12 Delegates for the 5/13 Primary).
Deadline (21 days to register or change your party to Republican - 4/22 for the Primary).
Wisconsin - Open Primary (2/19). Deadline (The day before or the day of at your polling precinct).
Wyoming - Caucus (1/5).

[Colobo]

1. Obama/Winfrey?

[Dems Will Win]

6. Just kidding

[antiimperialist]

2. I'd like to hear about this disenfranchisement of Latinos in NV

I'm not questioning your claim. I just haven't had the opportunity to read the news about it.
Can you show me some info about it? Sounds interesting. I hope Hillary didn't do that. I'd be disappointed.

[skipos]

3. You should look at the super Tuesday states 1st

as they will provide the momentum of the rest of primary season.
And you are overestimating the power of endorsements.
Newt Gingrich sang the praised of Hillary, but I doubt any Newt fans are going to flock to her anytime soon.

[cindyw]

4. CA will go to whomever is winning the PR war.

Californians really like one liners. CA will go to whomever has to momentum going into FEb 5. Do not expect it to be Barack if he is not winning at that point. I love my state, but people here are born and bred on letting other people doing the thinking for them on a national level. If you think I'm wrong all you have to look at is Arnold Schwarzenegger and the marriage "protection" vote.

[book_worm]

5. Obama proved in NH and IA that he can also win a significant number of White voters

He's much different than, say, Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton whose major constitutency was AA in the primaries. Obama will prove he can win voters from all walks of life. California is a state, btw, I think Obama can do very well in.

[Dems Will Win]

8. I think he takes CA in the end, especially because NV is right next door and the

Clinton camp is trying to disenfranchise Hispanic voters by closing the 9 at-large precincts in Las Vegas with a lawsuit

[bigdarryl]

7. I would like to see a break down in all those primary states that INDEPENDENTS and rethugs can...

vote

[elizm]

11. They can in SC. I'd like to see that breakdown too. nt

[Dems Will Win]

12. Found it and posted it in OP

Looks good for Obama I must say.

[elizm]

13. Thanks...Now my concern is...

How many of those southern states, like us here in SC, vote on paperless trail electronic voting machines. THAT is the bigger concern for me.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. So Now You're Suggesting Hillary Hates African Americans And Hispanics

Lee Atwater must be sending you talking points from Hell...

[Colobo]

10. Hillary should just denounce that NV lawsuit and that's it.

[Bullet1987]

14. I agree with the OP...

But how many Feb.5 states are Southern? Or have large amounts of Black voters?

[Dems Will Win]

15. AL, GA and TN all vote Feb 5 and have large amounts of black voters

[Dems Will Win]

16. Also NJ big city mayors have endorsed Barack and have effective machines

Best machines actually in NJ. So Obama will do well there and in NY, where the black vote is flocking to him.