Edwards Slips to Third Place in North Carolina

[SaveElmer]

A new Public Policy Polling survey in North Carolina finds Sen. Hillary Clinton leading the Democratic presidential race with 31% support, followed by Sen. Barack Obama at 29% and John Edwards back at third place in his home state with 27%.

Said pollster Dean Debnam: "Momentum is a precious commodity in politics. Right now Clinton and Obama have it and Edwards doesn’t, which is making it hard for him to fare well even in his home state."

http://www.politicalwire.com/

[Meshuga]

1. So what? It is very close. 4 pts difference between first and third.

And a lot could happen until then.

[midnight]

7. That's what I was thinking as I read this. These polls have an

error of +or- four points.

[sunonmars]

2. So that would be the 2nd time

He couldnt carry his own state.

[Clarkansas]

3. I think it is more telling that he is third in South Carolina

the only state he won in 04. Clinton, Obama and Richardson where the only ones winning their homestates in most polls.

[last_texas_dem]

15. Edwards won the NC primary in '04.

[Clarkansas]

21. He was out of the race at that point, but you are right. eom

[spooky3]

17. >50% of Dem. primary voters are African American

According to SurveyUSA polls, Clinton and Obama have great strengths with this base.

[Clarkansas]

22. Edwards numbers are very consistent in the remaining states

@15%. Not enough to come close to winning, but enough to help split the vote with Obama and help Clinton win.

[last_texas_dem]

23. But are you certain that Edwards remaining in the race helps Clinton?

From DU, I get the impression that there are more Edwards supporters who would go to Obama rather than Clinton if Edwards were to withdraw from the race. However, I am not sure if this is true when considering Edwards's supporters in the primaries. Reviewing the statistics from IA, there didn't seem to be substantial similarities between those who voted for Obama and Edwards vs. those who supported Clinton. If it can't be said with certainty that the majority of Edwards supporters would go to Obama if Edwards were to withdraw, then an Edwards withdrawal would not necessarily be beneficial to Obama, and could even possibly hurt his chances of securing the nomination.

[Clarkansas]

24. I am very convinced that most Edwards voters would go for Clinton

Edwards sees himself and Obama as the candidates of change. Edwards voters clearly aren't prioritizing "experience." And Edwards and Obama are closer on the issues. I looked at the exit polls myself and thought that Obama and Edwards have much more in common with eachother than either of them do with Hillary.

And on a personal note, I know only a few dedicated Clinton supporters, but most people I know seems to like Obama and Edwards but not Clinton.

If 2/3rds of Edwards supporters go for Obama, and that is my guess, Obama would win a lot of states he wouldn't win otherwise. New Hampshire included.

[Renew Deal]

4. Edwards hasn't won an election in NC since 1998.

[last_texas_dem]

18. He won the presidential primary in NC in '04

Maybe you aren't counting that as an election...? Otherwise, he hasn't stood for any elections in NC since 1998, other than as John Kerry's VP in the '04 general.

[Freddie Stubbs]

5. Sounds like a statistical tie (dead heat)

[Thrill]

6. Edwards isn't very popular and well liked in our state

I keep telling people this. But no one up here listens

[Clark2008]

11. I know this, but I'm in neighboring Tennessee.

Therefore, I have a pretty good idea how disliked he is... and why.

[AzDar]

8. Do you really BELIEVE this shit anymore?

:crazy:

[BringBigDogBack]

9. When is Edwards

going to unite the Anti-Hillary vote?

[suston96]

10. NC's primary is sometime in May. Won't matter much.....

....unless Obama and Clinton are so close after Super-Tuesday that the later primaries will mean something.

[itsrobert]

12. Elmer, don't have have a meeting for Ron Paul to go to?

I thought you were through with Democrats?

[SaveElmer]

13. From the DU Rules...

I think I posted them for you before...

Democratic Underground is an online community for Democrats and other progressives. Members are expected to be generally supportive of progressive ideals, and to support Democratic candidates for political office. Democratic Underground is not affiliated with the Democratic Party, and comments posted here are not representative of the Democratic Party or its candidates.

and

Democratic Underground is an online community for Democrats and other progressives. Members are expected to be generally supportive of progressive ideals, and to support Democratic candidates for political office.

We ban conservative disruptors who are opposed to the broad goals of this website. If you think overall that George W. Bush is doing a swell job, or if you wish to see Republicans win, or if you are generally supportive of conservative ideals, please do not register to post, as you will likely be banned.

and

You are not permitted to use this message board to work for the defeat of the Democratic Party nominee for any political office. If you wish to work for the defeat of any Democratic candidate in any General Election, then you are welcome to use someone else's bandwidth on some other website.


Since I have violated none of these rules...since membership in the Democratic Party is not required...and since I have said quite clearly I intend to support Democratic candidates for Congress and would support either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama for President...and since I have never advocated for the defeat of a Democratic Candidate by a Republican...my read is that I am perfectly welcome here...

However...if my posting of factual information is so abhorrent to you (and I can understand why given who you support) please feel free to put me on ignore!!!

[no name no slogan]

14. 4% away from 1st, with a poll who's margin of error is 3.1%

Yeah, that's fucking insurmountable. :eyes:

[Catchawave]

16. I'm so sick of polls

They give the MSM way too much control over lazy voters. :mad:

[redqueen]

20. I'm sick of lazy voters.

:7

[tritsofme]

19. That's not the point, NC's favorite son should be leading by 20 points,

If he had any legitimate shot at the nomination.

[dmosh42]

25. I don't believe Gore carried Tennessee in 2000.(GE) n/t

[tritsofme]

26. And that was certainly not a good thing for his candidacy.

But here we are talking about what should be his bread and butter, NC Democrats.