Not a "Bradley" effect...but a Chris and Joe effect...

[SaveElmer]

As in Chris Dodd and Joe Biden...

Thank You, Joe and Chris
Posted by Jay Carney

So a social scientist friend of a colleague here has run some comparisons into the pre-election polls and the actual turnout to see if there were signs of a so-called "black tax" in New Hampshire -- the phenomenon familiar to students of the Harvey Gant-Jesse Helms races in North Carolina. He didn't find any evidence that white respondents who were telling pollsters they planned to vote for Obama did not. What he found, instead, is that a certain percentage of Democratic voters in the last days of polling presumed Biden (especially) and (to a lesser degree) Dodd hadn't dropped out. By and large, come election day, those Biden and Dodd supporters ended up casting ballots for Hillary. Also, of the 5 percent or so who were still undecideds in the last polls, almost all broke for Hillary. And a tiny percentage of Edwards supporters switched to Hillary.

http://www.time-blog.com/swampland/2008/01/thank_you_joe_and_chris.html#comm

[rinsd]

1. This could mean that without some backroom deal making, Iowa could have been closer.

[SteppingRazor]

2. Funny, when I read the title of this, I thought the post would be about Matthews and Scarborough.

I obviously watch way too much MSNBC :P

[Little Star]

3. Stop it with the reality.......

You are trying to spoil all the fun.}( Why do you hate reality so much?:P

[Cameron27]

4. The Matthews/Scarborough effect,

I don't know why those two still have jobs.

[Atman]

6. Bwhaha! That's what I thought it meant first, too.

It's a whole other theory that probably makes as much sense as the op's.

.

[Atman]

5. Finally, something that makes sense.

But if people who intended to vote for Biden or Dodd didn't know they'd dropped out, wouldn't they have still cast their votes for them? Their names must have still been on the ballots, as there is no way the could have been re-printed or re-programmed in such a short period of time. But on the assumption that they were somehow made aware that Biden and Dodd were no longer on the ballot, that is as plausible a theory as any. Their supporters would almost certainly go for one of the other "old school" candidates in the race.

I wish the author wouldn't use weasel words like "a certain percentage of Democratic voters..." That's like using "some say..."

If it indeed a certain percentage, tell us what that percentage is so that we might be better able to analyze the data for ourselves.

.