How Are We Looking In The House and Senate Elections?

[fightindonkey]

Are we safe in both for majority? Will we get more seats? Where do we currently stand?

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

1. I hope we put up a candidate in 3rd Arkansas

this district has been Republican since the 60s, and even Bill Clinton couldn't get elected to Congress. The Dems here have been known to not even put up a candidate or, if they do, they don't advertise or promote him. I think this year is a great one for someone to run as a Dem from here, as I think there is a real chance we'll win the seat.

[Blue_In_AK]

2. Alaska could very well elect a Democratic representative...

Two of the three announced Democratic candidates for Alaska's one House seat could defeat Don Young if the election were held today. Ted Stevens also looks vulnerable, but we're not sure who will be running against him yet so that one is a little harder to call.

[TayTay]

3. The overall turnout inIowa was huge for Democrats

It wasn't so long ago that Iowa had a larger turnout for the Republicans than the Democrats in the caucuses. Last week, the Dems had over 230,000 participants in that event and I think that was about 2 1/2 times that of the Repubs. This portends well for the Dems across the board this fall.

[cali]

4. Mark Warner will win John Warner's Senate seat

He's polling over 20 pts higher than Gilmore. Same with Tom Udall in NM against Heather Wilson for Domenci's old seat. NH looks fairly good for Shaheen. Tom Allen has a chance in ME over Collins. Minnesota is a good possibility. We have fairly good odds in AK and Oregon.

In the House we'll pick up at least 8 and probably more like 15. I think we'er looking at 56 in the Senate and 250 in the House.

[grantcart]

5. The Perfect Storm for a 60 seat Democratic Senate

Next year will be the election for the 2nd Class of Senators and it brings forth a perfect storm for Democrats.

Of the 33 Senators up for election 21 are Republicans and 12 are Democrats.
http://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/reference...

Of the democrats all but one is in a seat that is considered either very strong or strong and should run with little or no opposition and that is Landrieu in LA.

Of the republicans 9 seats are considered contestable. This does not include wild card seats like Craig ID, or Trent MS in which the republicans will have no incumbent.

4 Seats are vacated by retiring Allard CO, Domenici NM, Hagel NE, Warner VA.

4 Seats are held by republicans in democratic states; Coleman MN, Smith OR, Sununu NH, Collins ME

1 Seat is occupied by a republican currently being investigated by the FBI and could be taken if a good candidate runs
Stevens AL.

The Democratic Senate Campaign has been outraising the republicans by a 10-1 ratio.

It is easier for the Democrats to recruit good candidates because 1) Likely presidential coattails, 2)Higher interest in working in the majority party.

And finally we have the 'Macaca' factor. The rest of the republican candidates will say something stupid and Dean's strategy of having a good candidate in every contest will provide some surprises