I don't think Sen. Clinton is going to recover from Iowa.

[Guaranteed]

It may already be too late, but I think her only chance to regain anything in this race is to repent pretty much the entire leadership style that we've seen from her since her husband left office.

Her stubbornness- her present defensiveness- is not going to change the facts, the unfulfilled, years-long opportunity she had to stand up for what is right, for the ideals of the Democratic Party.

She, theoretically, might elicit some sympathy if she did what Edwards did, only later, in the face of electoral humiliation. But she won't even do that.

Obama is still rising, and I think he will win New Hampshire and then South Carolina. This should be wrapped up in just a matter of weeks.

[monktonman]

1. good riddance n/t

[Alexander]

2. It's clear the Clinton campaign didn't have a Plan B for Iowa.

The question of "what if we lose?" apparently never entered their minds.

We saw what happened with the last president without a Plan B.

[loveangelc]

9. I think they did have a plan B after Iowa. New Hampshire. Now their plan B is

attacking Obama and hoping super tuesday will save them. which is a possibility, but not probable. It's basically what Guiliani is doing.

[Alexander]

40. But as we saw in 2004, momentum is a factor and NH is no Plan B.

If that was their Plan B, it was a terrible one.

[aquart]

3. I'm sure you're right. THE MESSIAH IS COMING.

Along with permanent climate change, massive economic failure, and who knows what other delightful challenges for the hand of our new god.

[Blue_In_AK]

4. It's kind of scary, isn't it?

Honestly, I don't know why anyone would even want the job, much less think they could do it to everyone's satisfaction.

[oasis]

7. We'll get by with Obama "pie in the sky".

:loveya:Don't need experience when you've got all that inspiration workin' for ya.:bounce:

[regnaD kciN]

11. Better than Clinton's "Bushco Blue"...

:puke:

[silverojo]

27. Her "experience" is cozying up to corporate interests

We've had enough of that kind of "experience" in the White House.

[oasis]

35. Why don't you just write in "Willy Wonka" on your ballot and be done with it?

:eyes:

[Lerkfish]

36. "willy wonka"?

bizarre.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

5. Very unlikely she will recover

I won't say never because there's always the Invisible Hand of Diebold to consider.

But she should have won Iowa. Period. She's Hillary Freakin' Clinton fergawdssakes! Who doesn't know who she is? And she gets beaten in Iowa?

It's over.

[regnaD kciN]

8. Of course, if she pulls off a surprise win in N.H. on Tuesday...

...all of this will be forgotten, as the media will restore her mantle of "inevitability." Every story will be about "The Comeback Kid II."

So, I'd hold off on any political obituaries for HRC yet. Maybe after a loss in S.C., or mediocre results on "Super Tuesday," but not at the midpoint between Iowa and N.H.

[Guaranteed]

10. The point is that I don't see her reacting to this how she should be.

She obviously understands that she needs to make changes- but I don't think she truly comprehends how fundamental they need to be.

Barring what I wrote above, she's not going to come back. We don't want the shit she is offering.

[Hippo_Tron]

13. The polls would have to be dead wrong for that to happen

And that includes her internals. She knows she's behind big time and she's scrambling to catch up. I don't see how she can do it by Tuesday.

[regnaD kciN]

21. Unlikely, indeed. But...

...more than some people here, I remember 1980. George H.W. Bush upset Reagan in the Iowa caucuses, and, between then and N.H., all you heard was that Reagan's political career was over, and that Bush was the fresh-faced rising star of the Republican Party. (As hard as it may be to believe, there was a burst of "Bushmania" at the time that rivaled the current excitement over Obama.) Then, in the Granite State, Ronnie won handily, and all of a sudden he was back to his "inevitable nominee" status, and Bush was an afterthought whose time had come...and gone.

Now, I will grant that Reagan beat Bush soundly in N.H., while, even if Hillary comes back, she'll probably only eke out a victory. Still, I think that the "favorite gets humbled, then stages a comeback" narrative is a potent one for the media, and, should Hillary win, I have no doubt that will be adopted as the guiding story of 2008 by the Corporate Media Cartel.

[soothsayer]

6. Eh, it's still early in my book.

[Hippo_Tron]

12. "Obama's campaign co-chair is a lobbyist" doesn't work when you defend lobbyists

Hillary's strategy of "he's not really for change" when you've spent most of the primary season being for the status quo is just absurd.

[bluestateguy]

14. She's not done yet

But if she loses the nomination, I think the political obituary will cite her failure to criticize the war in Iraq as the primary cause.

John Edwards at least apologized, admitted he was wrong, and seeks to change policy. Voters will take that much more seriously than Hillary's tortured, parsed explanations for what was in the end her signature on a blank check for this president to go to war.

Obama's war stance is "clean". He was against it before he was against it.

[Rageneau]

16. Agree. Let's not forget how tough and smart the Clintons are.

They're not done by a long sight.

[silverojo]

28. They're tough and dirty, but not smart

Smart people don't refuse to admit their mistakes.

[Hardrada]

17. As one who caucused in Iowa these points are what was

first and foremost in my mind. We invaded a country that was no threat to us. Admit it! Apologize for your vote and move on. Hillary has done none of that which is abominable but it ALSO leads me to question WHY she has not done so. Is she trying to please some group or some nation of her reliability despite how much the cost to the US?

[Guaranteed]

20. #1 Edwards already did it- she's trying to differentiate (but lost that deal), and

#2- it's probably too late now, anyway. It would look desperate, now, like begging.

[juajen]

39. Flip-flop killed John Kerry, or so they said.

We all know it had a lot to do with electronic voting machines. Ah, well.

[calimary]

15. Momentum is a very powerful thing. Especially in the PERCEPTION game.

The all-important Perception Game. I think the answer will come on Tuesday night. If she fails in New Hampshire, her campaign may well have suffered a mortal blow. It's two-in-a-row. If it's a two-straight'er loss for her and a two-straight'er win for Obama, she is in serious trouble. Who else, I think, will also be in serious trouble, depending, will be rudy. It depends on how poorly he does in N.H. Especially if he STILL is betting the farm on Florida. Florida's on January 29th. That is an eternity away. Certainly it could stunningly flip back his way.

When I was an entertainment reporter, and we covered stuff like the Oscars and Emmys (backstage, never getting to watch the show the way the public does), the point, early-on in the evening, was to spot the trend. Usually, the mechanism was when somebody or some movie or some show became the first to win more than one award. The first two-award winner became the one to beat, and somebody in the room invariably called out "we have a trend!" And all these asterisks would suddenly be drawn on notepads all over the room, noting the soundbite and the foot-count if you were keeping track (well, the way we did it about ten years ago).

So the first two-fer here will be the one to beat. I think Obama has the best shot at that score. If it were any other state than New Hampshire (where the rabid evangelical contingent is very small) huckabee might be first among the GOP. I think Obama's gonna do it among the Dems. He has an impressive amount of momentum and a lot of positive after-coverage at his back. I think it counts. And since I'd say it's probable that Obama WILL become the first of anybody in either party to win two in a row and no republi-CON will do so on his side, Obama will get that headline all to himself all evening. The punditry will have to make mention of it. It's too good and too historic to avoid noting on the air and elsewhere.

That, in itself, will add to Obama's momentum - AND a sense of witnessing history here in this still-young country. And the more I think about it, the more I'd suspect this would become a MOST alluring moment that will suddenly start dawning on people. Many of them may want to join in the moment, and decide it's just too historic an event in American history to NOT be part of. I have a woman friend who resolves to vote for Hillary in the California primary simply because she wishes to cast her vote for a woman president, even if Hillary has no hope by then. Certainly there are people who wouldn't rule out a vote for Obama once they spend a moment thinking about the broader ramifications of this choice. It might well be significantly important what this says about America to the world; what we're saying about ourselves with this national choice-making. I expect that to resonate with more than a few voters. Powerfully in some cases.

[Guaranteed]

19. I agree that once the country really starts waking up to the possibility

of such a wonderful day as seeing a black President, the GE, even, will be all sewn up.

[fightindonkey]

25. There You Go, A Black President. Novelty With No Experience

[caligirl]

38. great post calimary. After watching the debate Saturday I wanted to call

Edwards and Obama the golden boys, my husband thought butch and the kid. I thing somewhere in that debate many Americans saw the two together as I did and thought what an incredible pair.

[Nailzberg]

18. She can recover, but not with Penn at the helm

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=3975819&mesg_id=3976438

[regnaD kciN]

22. IMHO, Penn may be a turkey, but...

...it's the candidate who needs to take responsibility.

If Hillary loses, it will be due to her own failings as a candidate, beginning with votes, such as the IWR, that left people feeling that she has no political ideals other than her own desire for power.

Saying Penn is to blame for Hillary's predicament is like saying that a bunch of low-level anti-Castro Cubans were the reason Nixon had to resign in disgrace.

[Nailzberg]

24. I think Clinton's candidacy has been derailed by Penn.

Read my post that I linked to. I haven't been a Hillary fan at all. But Penn has been the downfall of her campaign.

I still think we are better off with someone without the "Clinton Baggage", the RW anger that Hillary doesn't deserve but nonetheless carries with her. But I do not harbor ill feelings against her other than those I've developed during the campaign.

[CarbonDate]

30. "False hope" is a horrible message in a campaign.

It's something a doctor says about a dying patient. It's not designed to win votes for her; it's designed to kill enthusiasm for Obama and Edwards. IOW, to stifle voter turn-out. It's not a winning strategy.

[lvx35]

23. Its a dangerous spot, but she can still win.

Really she's done the best she can do, which is make the legit case that she can really make the changes on the core issues rather than making a lot of promises. What happens from here is really up to Obama. Its about when his bubble will burst.

[origin1286]

26. Iowa

is so overhyped by the media, but alas, it is what it is.

[Hardrada]

29. We had to fight her here.

[ButterflyBlood]

31. Her mistake was trying to make her nomination a self-fulfilling prophecy

Sure the media was compliant. Keep saying she's the frontrunner and inevitable, and many bandwagon jumpers would back her. But now that that's been shattered, what can she do? Go hard negative? That backfired. Beat Obama on substance? Can't be done, Obama supporters will never switch to her now. All the support she bleeds she's never getting back.

[Rene]

32. Obama's all rhetoric...no actual deal. 4 years of that admin would be chaos.

Same for Edwards. NIETHER has a substanial track record of influencing ANY legislation/change while they're in office. Preachers, not leaders. I'd not follow either one. The sheeple are being routed by the media. The "polls" are misleading.

[mnhtnbb]

33. Actually, the polls show EDWARDS rising, Obama static, Clinton declining

See another thread.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3127531&mesg_id=3127531

[Eurobabe]

34. I am beginning to think the same thing

Beware of the annointed ones.

[earth mom]

37. FYI-Obama doesn't have the race sewn up.

:eyes:

My husband barely pays attention to politics and he told me months ago he wants Edwards.

There are millions of people out there who are just like my husband; who remember Edwards from the 04 race and still like and support him.



As they say....don't count your chickens before they hatch.

[youthere]

41. I want ALL the candidates to stay in the race until every last primary vote is cast.

[Bake]

42. It's WAAAAAAAAAY too early to call it a done deal.

Remember Bill Clinton? I don't think he won Iowa either ...

Bake

[ramapo]

44. Funny what happens

Once people start to vote all kinds of unexpected things can happen. Remember that Howard Dean was all but anointed as the nominee before the primaries. Same thing with Hillary.

[Bake]

45. Or Obama, for that matter.

Bake

[BenDavid]

43. america will again be fooled...obama, a one page resume.

[Catherine Vincent]

46. Last week it was "Clinton is finished"

This week it's "Clinton will not recover from Iowa". What will it be next week?