Barack Obama won the Iowa Caucus because?

[ellisonz]

Poll question: Barack Obama won the Iowa Caucus because?

[H2O Man]

1. 1, 2, and 3

No doubt.

[MADem]

2. No "other?" Bit of a push poll that...

[ellisonz]

3. Edit: you got it.

But I expect a stated answer since I thought I covered the bases.

[MADem]

7. Well, I don't really have an "other" of my own but I can think of a few.

I think he won with brilliant organization and hard work. Money didn't hurt, either.

But a few potential "Other" reasons, that I've seen on this board since the results came out, to include:

--Oprah

--Crossover GOP supporters switching affiliations

--College students from other states returning en masse to IA to register and caucus

--Status Quo backlash

--Desire for "change"

You touched the obvious answers, but not all the possibilities. I didn't touch all the possibilities either, just the few I've seen in the past few hours.

[ellisonz]

9. Desire for "change" and "hope" is message, see Poly Sci 101.

The first is really sadly an extremely small possibility, the second is not supported by the exit polling, the third is statistically improbable, and the fourth is quite correct but should benefit Edwards and Obama equally.

[MADem]

17. No it isn't. I am not talking about his message. I am talking about someone

who wants a different "style" of candidate and who hasn't even listened to the guy. They want him BECAUSE he's young, BECAUSE he's black, BECAUSE he isn't a Washington regular, BECAUSE he doesn't match the paradigm. They don't care about his views on anything from the war to health care, they just want a different view.

That isn't "message." And I didn't say squat about "hope."

See READING 101, and don't ass-ume.

If you didn't want views other than your narrow little construct, why did you bother to change your fucking poll?

Jesus. :eyes:

It's rather counterproductive to argue with "opinion" and complain that these opinions aren't supported by exit polls (did those polls offer an unlimited opportunity for exiters to voice their opinions? We don't know one way or another unless you provide a cite where we, too, can examine the data--see GRADUATE THESIS REFERENCING INSTRUCTIONS) and even more so when you're arguing with opinion that isn't held by me.

Hard work isn't on your list, either and I don't view that trait as part of organization. People can be highly organized and work a half day, or poorly organized and work hard, or highly organized AND hardworking.

Whatever. You made it clear that you really aren't looking for any opinions but your own. Enjoy the echo chamber.

[ellisonz]

20. Way to dismiss Obama supporters en masse...

[MADem]

21. Way to NOT EVEN READ WHAT I FUCKING WROTE.

What the hell is WRONG with you?

Do you always have this much difficulty comprehending what people write?

[ellisonz]

31. Whatever...

I read what you wrote and I think you confuse things greatly.

Hard work? What is hard work other than fundraising and organization? Admittedly, Fred Thompson is lazy. Hiring policy wonks to write position papers?

"I am talking about someone who wants a different "style" of candidate and who hasn't even listened to the guy. They want him BECAUSE he's young, BECAUSE he's black, BECAUSE he isn't a Washington regular, BECAUSE he doesn't match the paradigm. They don't care about his views on anything from the war to health care, they just want a different view. "

Your words speak for themselves, you can't imagine anyone other than 30 making an informed vote for Obama. You believe 37.5% of some 200,000 people cast uninformed votes. I have more faith in the electorate than that.

The times they are a changing'

:eyes:

[gaiilonfong]

37. Here , Here

You said;
"Your words speak for themselves, you can't imagine anyone other than 30 making an informed vote for Obama. You believe 37.5% of some 200,000 people cast uninformed votes. I have more faith in the electorate than that."

If I may add my caveat.

I have mORE faith in the YOUNG electorate, than anyother. They are informed, their lives are lived around the internets, and they read all the stories all the blog spin etc, they think about it and go from there.
That is the real power of what is happening.
I have renewed faith in young people. As a musician who has been fighting establishment protocals for a long time, I see with the younggin's a renewed curiosity, and with youtube et al, they have real choices to make informed decisions. I am encouraged!

[MADem]

47. Read your OP. THAT's what I was responding to. Yet you persist in personalizing my responses, even

when I specifically include a caveat to them that plainly divorces them from my personal views.

And then, to ice your cake of high dudgeon, you snarkily misinterpret them on top of falsely ascribing them, and you're quite proud of that as well.

You are woefully, pathetically obtuse.

Deliberately so? Or are you actually going through life with that burden?

Perhaps the times will indeed change, to provide better lifelong education opportunities for all Americans. Lord knows they're needed, especially in the area of basic reading comprehension.

:rofl:

[ellisonz]

58. That would assume I'm not already pretty highly educated...

...for instance in how political campaigns are structured and how elections work.

SO AGAIN I'LL DO THE THINKING FOR YOU:

--Oprah - Other

--Crossover GOP supporters switching affiliations - 1, 2, 3 or All of the Above. But according to the CNN Entry Poll Republicans were only 3% of the voters and only half of them went for Obama, so that's only 1.5% of a 7.5% win.

--College students from other states returning en masse to IA to register and caucus - Can't be calculated but is highly unlikely considering the small number of Iowa college students from out of state.

--Status Quo backlash - 2. Message and Issues, presumptively people who are angry attach to a candidate because of what he says.

--Desire for "change" - The same as the previous one. A campaign has a basic message and Barack Obama's is change and hope. People bought into that because according to the entry poll, 52% of voters said "change" was most important candidate quality and that broke 51-20-19 for Obama.

Have you always gone through life incapable of doing basic analysis and always being such a stubborn, blathering fool. Must be a New England thing. Mouth's bigger than your head.

[MADem]

60. How can you 'do the thinking' when you are unable to READ?

To say nothing of being unable to engage in a logical discussion!

You make erroneous assumptions, ascribe beliefs to me that I do not assert, and then continue on, tossing insult after insult, even after I tell you, repeatedly, to fucking READ what is written and stop falsely ascribing--and then you go on with a bullshit "analysis" that is apropos of nothing.

You really embarrass yourself.


I give up. It's like arguing with a brain damaged insect. You're talking bullshit, AND getting shirty, too! It's funny AND pathetic!

:rofl:

[ellisonz]

61. Reading and Comprehension appear to be two different things for you, sir.

And I did not start with the insults...

Some help:

Main Entry:
1mes·sage
Pronunciation:
\?me-sij\
Function:
noun
Etymology:
Middle English, from Anglo-French, from Medieval Latin missaticum, from Latin missus, past participle of mittere
Date:
14th century
1 : a communication in writing, in speech, or by signals 2 : a messenger's mission 3 : an underlying theme or idea

"I am talking about someone who wants a different "style" of candidate and who hasn't even listened to the guy. They want him BECAUSE he's young, BECAUSE he's black, BECAUSE he isn't a Washington regular, BECAUSE he doesn't match the paradigm. They don't care about his views on anything from the war to health care, they just want a different view. "

Might want to put down the bottle of haterade...

:nopity: for assholes.

[MADem]

62. Way to go, there champ--toss the old "asshole" bomb at me, now!

It's becoming very obvious that you can't read--you sure haven't read those DU rules!!

You starting to realize you didn't read for comprehension, is that it?

That is why you're throwing unrelated bullshit at me, to try to mix it up?

That is why you are again trying, and failing, to take my quote out of context to try to cover the fact that you blew it--you didn't actually READ my post before you ASS-umed.

Sorry pal. Didn't work. This is how many tries, and you still can't get your head around what I said? Poor you!

You can cut and paste all day, it still doesn't fix the fact that you didn't bother to READ before you shot off your uninformed and ill read mouth. Or if you did read, you failed to comprehend!


You playing that pity violin for yourself? You need all the accompaniament you can get, I suppose!!

:rofl:

[ellisonz]

64. No substance...

Ignore.

[MADem]

65. You DO know, if you've "read" (bwahahahaha!! cough, choke) those DU rules, now

that if you toss the IGNORE bomb out, you ACTUALLY HAVE TO DO IT.

I look forward to never having to deal with you again. Thank you so much!!!

[geiger]

4. young people voting....finally

[lojasmo]

5. The youth vote trippled, 57% voted for Barrak. EOM

[Perry Logan]

6. Clinton hatred, hello!

[Sal Minella]

30. I wish you'd pitchfork this attitude into the spreader wagon, and then in spring we can put it on

the south forty, where it will do some good.

In my precinct group, the Hillary people tended to scream a lot -- sounded like people at a junior high basketball game or something. Many were wearing identical blue t-shirts with "Hillary" blazoned across the front. I noticed three young women (?age twenty, maybe?) cross together from the Hillary group to the Edwards group -- maybe they wanted less show and more substance, who knows? But those three became "Clinton-haters" during the caucus process, and if you have an explanation, I'd love to read it.

Edit: The final tally for assignment of ten delegates in my precinct was Hillary 5, Obama 3, and Edwards 2, so those girls did not switch as rats-leaving-sinking-ship.

[fasttense]

8. Other-the Edwards ignore button by the corporate media. n/t

[ellisonz]

10. See option 4: media bias.

[VarnettaTuckpocket]

11. Anti-gay MSM conveniently ignoring the McClurkin mess

How many of those idealistic young Obama supporters would've dropped their support had the MSM bothered to inform them about the McClurkin mess? Most of them probably haven't even heard of it, let alone have all the facts and quotes straight about it.

[gaiilonfong]

16. They knew about it

Obama explained what was up. AS a gay man I ACCEPTED his explanation, so let's move on from this. Obama is NOT anti-gay or homophobic.

[VarnettaTuckpocket]

22. Wrong, the average citizen on the street hasn't heard a thing about it

DU is way more liberal than the actual world, it's one of the few places that is respectful enough of gay equality to discuss this thoroughly. And your anecdotal endorsement of Obama as a gay man doesn't mean a thing, millions of gay people voted for Bush too.

[gaiilonfong]

33. I understand

Actually 25% of gay White males voted for Bush, very sad indeed, actually a pathetic crime. Excuse me but my endorsement was not "anecdotal", it was simply my opinions about my feelings. We can discuss anecdotal at another time. I don't agree the voters of Iowas especially the young internets savy ones didn't know about the whole dust up over that loser ex-gay! Just my opinion. I respect yours and we can agree to disagree.
Have a good day!

[readmoreoften]

25. Thanks O speaker for teh gays.

Next time the rest of us homos should consult you first. Are you one of those who didn't think excluding transgender issues from ENDA was a good idea too? Meh, you'll just say whatever sounds best...

[gaiilonfong]

29. NO SALE

I think you need a reading comprehension class. I was speaking for myself...notice is said.."this gay man"
Actaually I and fellow memebers of my Dolphin Dems group lobbied for transgender issues, and here in So Florida, my partner actually is very involved in their issues....SO NO FRIGGIN SALE.
If you need to go all Varla Jean Merman on someone, look elsewhere. I accept Obamas explanation, and watched the video of his meeting with African American pastors and how he was there for teh gays against those homophobes. That is good enough for me, if it isn't for you..SO BE IT..look elsewhere.
Not everyone is gonna be on your Obama hates teh gays meltdown express, or a Hillary supporter because we are gay. You want that crowd go worship D. Ehrenstein!

[Tesha]

12. I think people are discounting his "favored son" status.

He's the Senator from the neighboring state; I think
that gave him a definite advantage.

Tesha

[MADem]

19. The Gephardt effect. He IS the Senator from the neighboring state.

Mitt Romney is praying for NH spillover of the same sort.

Mitt has a summer house in NH and spent more time there than he did in MA.

Mitt may have trouble, though. We'll see.

[Justyce]

13. Media bias, youth vote naivety.

[Tactical Progressive]

18. Yes, 'Youth Voter Naivety' should be a poll option

Then he could combine that with 'Media Bias' and 'Publican Crossover' like he did for 1-2-3 for at least an attempt at a balanced poll.

I don't know what's more dispiriting - the fact that so many Americans are susceptible to Publican attitudes, or that so many Democrats are foolish enough to support an arrogant empty suit.

[DissentIsPatriotic]

14. 1st time caucuser Republican cross-over

[IsItJustMe]

45. I am sure a lot of it went on.

[Girlieman]

15. Second choice votes

I think the difference was that Obama picked up more second choice endorsements from the "second tier" candidates.

[robbedvoter]

23. You didn't ask when did he stop beating his wife...Sour grapes much?

[readmoreoften]

26. Yeah I have sour grapes when I feel like your username: robbed voter

I think your candidate is a hollow symbol with no platform. Get over it.

[OneBlueSky]

24. lots of sizzle . . . (but no steak) . . . n/t

[Aviation Pro]

27. 46,000 young people....

...who represent .046 of the general election vote.

[MethuenProgressive]

28. Illinois college students, dirty tricks, Non-Dems infiltrating caucuses, fuzzy poll tested message

Pandering to the Bigot Wing of his Church, and Oprah.

[FreeStateDemocrat]

34. Another day at the office for typical establishment political hack.

[gaiilonfong]

43. Repeating all the Wolfson/Rove talking points Bravo

Didn't take you long to memorize them!
Hey did you know ALL the Richardson voters went in bloc for Obama last night when Richardson wasn't viable, is that the craw that is stuck in your throat today?

[emmadoggy]

59. Uh, not quite.

In my precinct - yes, it's only one, but... - seven of the ten Richardson supporters moved to Edwards.

[Colobo]

32. He won because he's the best candidate we've had in years.

[Sal Minella]

35. Bingo. eom

[Rockholm]

36. The MEDIA was responsible for his rise. Nothing more.

The MSM WANTED a close race for RATINGS. Clinton had a tremendous lead. That does not translate into viewers or general excitement about the caucus if the winner had been preordained. Now....the race is on.
Honestly, the more I hear Obama, the less I like him. I still like Hillary and believe in her and the fact she would beat the republican nominee, but plan to vote for Edwards when the Massachusetts primary arrives next month. I like his message and feel he really wants to be president, more than the others.

Edit: Too little coffee and too fast typing. Spelling errors. Yikes. Like I need THAT first thing in the morning.

[Colobo]

39. Don't be bitter. Obama is the man.

[gaiilonfong]

41. According to all the live blogging from the caucuses(most were NOT Obama supporters)

The amount of delegates Obama received was NOTHING compared to the amount of people that were there to support him. In other words they claim if it was just a popular vote count for Obama he would have won by a minimum of 15 percentage points. By assuming that those people who voted for him were ill-informed "night of the living dead" brain-dead non thinkers is just nonsense. If you like Edwards better so be it, fight for him, but don't knok down people you don't even know, or assume you know what their motivations for voting in a certain manner.

[Rockholm]

46. I was not "knoking" anyone.

I was commenting on the media.
If you want me to knock anything, I will knock the Kucinich people who bash everyone else for not supporting him. Now we will have the Obama people posting constantly, beating back supporters of Clinton and Edwards. Beating back, BTW, with a heavy hand.
I wish the focus could be on how friggin' PATHETIC the republicans are! There could be hours of threads on that, but no, let's beat the shit out of each other. No thanks.

[Arugula Latte]

48. Hillary is poison. Both sides hate her. nt

[Rockholm]

52. That's special.

Poison. I will archive that.

[Arugula Latte]

56. Lieberman had a lead going into the '04 primaries. It's called name recognition.

When people start to see there are alternatives to the known quantities, the leads can evaporate quickly.

[ThomWV]

38. In a nation where American Idol makes the news why would anyone be suprised by Obama's win?

Hype.

[depakid]

70. Precisely

The press also gave some candidates measurably more favorable coverage than others. Democrat Barack Obama, the junior Senator from Illinois, enjoyed by far the most positive treatment of the major candidates during the first five months of the year—followed closely by Fred Thompson, the actor who at the time was only considering running. Arizona Senator John McCain received the most negative coverage—much worse than his main GOP rivals.



Meanwhile, the tone of coverage of the two party front runners, New York Senator Hillary Clinton and former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, was virtually identical, and more negative than positive, according to the study by the Project for Excellence in Journalism and the Joan Shorenstein Center on the Press, Politics and Public Policy.

http://www.journalism.org/node/8187

[adapa]

40. Indy's broke for O, In NH they'll go for McCain----

[gaiilonfong]

42. Well according to pollsters

If Obama won Iowa, the indys in NH will go for Obama.
St McCain is toast, it is only a matter of time.
The ReTHUGS are on meltdown mode, even if that hideous McCain won he would be so dmamged by the gneral, that he will be limping badly!

[adapa]

44. site? the NH people like McCain, they remember 8 years ago

[ButterflyBlood]

49. The polls say 60% of NH indies will vote Dem, 40% GOP

So no.

[adapa]

51. when was the poll you site done? recently? McCain is coming on strong here

[Quixote1818]

50. His personality is the least like Bush. nt

[butterfly77]

53. The media and the CONS...

[BigDDem]

54. I was going to vote but there wasnt an option for "Present"

[SCDem]

55. Early Grassroots organizing

At least from my experience in South Carolina that was what I was most impressed with. They started canvassing in June here then seriously in September - every other weekend.

Hillary didn't start until December here in SC and Edwards really doesn't have too much of a team here in SC.

I just believe people on the ground can make a difference

[Occam Bandage]

57. When DU starts complaining the media is biased in favor of

the liberal black man running for President, I'm not even sure what to think. Obama receives favorable coverage because Obama is the best candidate the Democrats have put forward in a generation.

[HughMoran]

69. Amazing isn't it?

Are people here so unable to admit that perhaps more people like him because he is a better candidate? I don't know what to think when I see poll results that are this stupid.

[laureloak]

63. He's a corporate puppet.

[IndianaGreen]

66. 1, 2, and 3

While it saddens me that Iowans did not properly appreciate solid candidates like Biden and Dodd, I am quite satisfied that Omaba and Edwards came ahead of the establisment candidate, Hillary Clinton.

[antiimperialist]

67. Because Hil and Edwards voted for the Iraq war and Hillary voted for Iran bill

[HughMoran]

68. Media bias?

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

In favor of Obama? Yeah, um, ok :crazy: