Zogby-New Hampshire -Clinton 32% Obama 26% Edwards 20%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

http://www.c-span.org/pdf/zogby/Reuters_CSPAN_Zogby_NH_Day_1_NR_010408.pdf

This should be an interesting four days...

[ellisonz]

1. Two words: Iowa bump.

[Perry Logan]

2. Don't do this. You'll upset the Obamites, and they'll start badmouthing everyone again.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. I Will Post And Be Respectful

Until and unless people are disrespectful to me...

[ellisonz]

6. Sounds like sour grapes.

[Perry Logan]

9. See what I mean?

[ellisonz]

16. That's politics.

Deal with it.

38-30-29.

[Perry Logan]

24. I'm fine. I assume it's OK to criticize.

[earthlover]

12. Like you are badmouthing them in your post....I see

[JI7]

4. what happens if Hillary comes in 3rd in NH ?

i heard some talk that her people believe she could still continue the campaign if she comes in 2nd in NH.

but what if she comes in 3rd ?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. She Will Stay In The Campaign Through February 5th

Candidates end their campaign when they run out of money...

[cali]

7. I suspect that Obama will get that 10 point Iowa bump

beyond that it's hard to know how much support Clinton loses. And this schedule is not friendly to her. She only has 4 days to make up lost ground. I don't see her winning it at this point, but I do think she'll take second. How does that set things up for SC? Will African Americans defect to Obama in large numbers? I think that's a reasonable assumption. It's beginning to look to me like Clinton will have to wait for NV for a win. Then she and Obama will battle it out on Super Tuesday. If Edwards drops out and endorses Obama after SC, it's hard to see Clinton getting the nomination.

[earthlover]

13. I agree with your assessment.

In addition to Obama surging, Hillary may lose a few points due to her third place finish. In any case, I think now Obama has the advantage in NH and SC. It could really gain more and more momentum.

[karynnj]

19. I agree with your analyses on NH

The Clintons are hurt by the very front loading they created. From the polling Obama was even or slightly behind HRC in NH, but anyone with HRC, because "only she can win" may rethink things. If Obama gets the 10 point Iowa bump, he's ahead. There seems no reason that Edwards would get any bump, so HRC will be second.

I do think that Obama could win Iowa and NH and even SC and have something swing things back to HRC. It would be Obama's to lose though. The coming debate will be just Obama, HRC, Edwards and Richardson. Even in the last debate, Obama was the most at ease. If Obama can repeat that, he will likely win. At any rate, his job will be to stay calm and respond reasonably to the attacks that are likely to come. Fortunately, that seems consistent with his personality.

The problem HRC has is that she has not been able to make the experience issue stick, partially as her own experience has been questioned. As she is perceived more negative than Obama, it is impossible for her to be the "grown up", above the fray candidate, she likely intended to be. The Clintons likely have a really tough decision - they already tried going very negative - and it clearly backfired. There is no reason to thing it would work this time and it potentially hurts the Democratic nominee. About the only way I can see attacks on Obama helping HRC is if they come from Richardson or Edwards.

[zanne]

20. Excellent analysis,karynnj.

May I add that the polls in Iowa very quite misleading?

[bigdarryl]

8. Was this poll taken BEFORE the Iowa caucas or after

[THUNDER HANDS]

11. had to have been before

unless they did flash overnight polling.

[zanne]

14. I was polled by Zogby before the caucus...in the afternoon. nt

[Tennessee Gal]

15. It was before the caucuses began.

It says so on the link.

[Raven]

10. Don't believe the polls in New Hampshire...

we lie.

[opihimoimoi]

17. Wicked...LOL.....

[Lurking Dem]

23. LOL!

Too funny!

[SaveElmer]

18. This was taken before the Iowa caucuses...to use as a baseline

To gauge the effect of Iowa...

[Didereaux]

21. Zogby holds the title(so far) of being the most erratic of the polls.

[Cosmocat]

25. Yep ...

He was on C-Span last weekend and he had Clinton with a three or four point lead, and seemed to think that Edwards had the most to gain with the second tier votes, and by not saying much about him seemed to indicate that Hill was who he would put his money on ...

[book_worm]

22. watch tomorrow for the first uptick of an Obama bump from Iowa