A Question for Kerry and Clark Supporters

[Tom Rinaldo]

I will try to use neutral terminology because my intent is not to be divisive. Do you feel under any circumstances either Kerry or Clark should consider suspending his campaign to back either the other man, or someone else? If so when should that point be? How would you recognize it when that time arrived? Finally, who do you think either man should back if he felt that he no longer had a realistic chance to win? Personally I think that last question boils down to either Kerry or Clark throwing their support directly to the other man to establish a more viable alternative to Dean, or conversely closing ranks behind Dean to promote party unity with Dean as the expected standard bearer. Obviously whoever it was could remain officially non committed upon withdrawing, and even more obviously no one can make either man withdraw if he doesn't want to.

I start out with some assumptions, the first being that it is premature for that bridge to be crossed right now. Both men and their supporters believe victory is still possible, and it would be foolish to realistically expect either man to stop fighting weeks before a real vote was cast. I am also working on the assumption that both men appeal to many of the same voters, which is why I focused the question on just Kerry and Clark. Because of their similar appeals, as military veterans with strong foreign affairs and national security credentials, I believe there is a group of undecided voters that waver between supporting one or the other of these two men, and an endorsement of one by the other might have significant impact, and even a simple withdrawal would help clear a path for his rival to appeal to those voters.

Another assumption, and this is the easy one, is that Dean is still the man to beat for the nomination, and that sooner or later the field will narrow to three, and then two viable candidates. My last assumption is that the later the field narrows, the more likely it is that Dean will get the nomination. So timing may be important. Even if both men stay in the fight through the last primary contest, that doesn't mean that supporters have to go down with the ship if it appears to be sinking. At what point would you consider jumping ship? Where would you go?

I thought through these questions some on another thread, but I will hold back my own further comments for a bit, or at least keep them out of this lead post, to encourage people to react more freely with their own.

[DancingBear]

1. Yes, one should - and most probably will

Tom, thanks for a good discusion topic. I do not feel that a suspension of campaigning will occur, but rather natural selection, if you will. While I admire Kerry tremendously, and feel he would be a fine candidate, I fear that his money supply (having to take $ from his house is not a good sign) or lack thereof will put him out of the race before Super Tuesday, maybe sooner. If this occurs, his core of support will translate (I feel) rather easily over to Clark. The two share many bonds, and supporters would not feel like they would be settling for a "lesser choice" with Clark.

Both Clark and Dean are savvy individuals, and I think both will see the need for political courage when the time comes. Kerry is right now looking to roll 7's in both Iowa and NH to stay competitive. If he fails to do so (second place finishes in both), I think he will read the political tea leaves correctly. If this happens, all bets are off as to frontrunner status, as Clark now becomes THE anti-Dean, if he is not already.

I would be interested in the Kerry supporters take on this. I, for one, welcome Kerry people to the Clark camp if it comes to that, and if the reverse happens I would be honored to take an active role in the Kerry campaign. Dean or Clark campaigning for the other - not bad!

I see Super Tuesday (give or take a week) as the timeline.

[jmaier]

2. No

I think that if any nomination candidate falls to far behind during the primaries that they feel motivated to withdraw then they should but I really don't think they should endorse another candidate.

This race is divisive enough already. They should wait until the convention, use their leverage, if any, for platform, VP, etc. and then get enthusiastically, visibly and actively behind the nominee.

[Democrats unite]

3. I feel the candidates know when it's time for them to drop out

I for one would not preasure them to do so until they are ready on their terms. If Clark were to drop out I would immediately shore up support for my second choice & then support whoever the eventual nominee is.

P.S. but in all fairness this question should have been directed at all candidates, none are immune from a freak accident to make them drop out of the race.

[MariaS]

4. I'm with the General

to the end win or lose. I support him because he is, in my estimation the best candidate. If the time ever comes when the General throws in the towel I will never again engage in any form of political activisim. I will cast my vote for the candidate that wins the nomination but that will be the end for me. No candidate has ever inspired me to the level that the General has and no one ever will again. Clark has taken me beyond ABB. I have no problem with Dean but I feel nothing when I hear him speak. I tune him out like I have every other politician in my lifetime. So in answer to your question I would go nowhere.

[Eric J in MN]

5. MariaS

MariaS - how did Wesley Clark inspire you?

I'm asking as someone who has contributed to Wesley Clark, but who likes Kucinich the best.

[MariaS]

13. Thanks for asking

The main issue is and has always been for me the invasion of Iraq. I felt right from the beginning that Bush was playing us for fools and nothing pisses me off more than being played for a fool. I did vote for Kucinich in the Moveon.org primary but I knew that this country was in no way ready for a candidate that was like Dennis. Our society is too violent and I actually heard people laugh at his Department of Peace proposal. That made me so sad. In April of this year I flew almost 2000 miles round trip to hear Nader speak because I was so desperate for a voice of reason. I gravitated towards the General because I honestly didn't believe any of the declared Dems could beat Bush. I liked him instantly after seeing him on the Bill Maher show and I felt an instant trust when he spoke which is very rare for me.

And after months of following his campaign and following him to different states to hear him speak I came to the realization that it no longer was about anyone who could beat Bush it had suddenly become wanting a better America. I believe him and I believe in him. When he speaks I feel the passion and the anger that he projects about the things that Bush is doing to our country. My husband still walks around saying "I can't believe you are supporting a General". I recently found out that I am going to be a first time Grandma and so now the stakes have become even higher for me. I want my grandchild to have a good future and I want that future to be the one I hear Wesley Clark speak of.

[SheilaT]

6. What I hope more than anything

is that in the end the other eight candidates will go out and campaign whole-heartedly for the nominee. Imagine what that would accomplish. Once the nominating convention comes to a close, all nine of the candidates are up there with the nominee (and VP choice) and they all make it clear that they are united in their determination to rid this country of George W Bush.

I can dream.

[mikehiggins]

7. No matter what I expect Clark to continue to the convention unless

Dean clearly has the nomination sewed up with elected delegates before hand. This doesn't mean politicians who swear on their sainted mothers that they will vote for Dean as a superdelegate when push comes to shove.

I don't think it matters what the other candidates do. If they drop out and support Clark that would be good. If they drop out and support Dean, that would be bad. Good or bad, Clark didn't come into this race because of what other people will or won't do.

If Dead does not have enough elected delegates to guarantee a first ballot nomination, then there will still be a chance for a massive backstabbing by DNC/DLC connected politicians to put the contest in Clark's pocket.

That would be incredibly poor public relations but if they really feel Dean can't carry the ticket through to success, then it is good politics.

Life is a Cabaret, old chum, welcome to the Cabaret.

And, of course, if Dean is nominated I'll back him to the best of my ability.

ABB RULES!

[democratreformed]

17. Clark came into this race

because we, the people, asked him to. He will not concede defeat until the end. I believe that. He had no political aspirations. He did not spend his life picking his actions according to how they might affect his future run for the presidency b/c he did not have that plan in his future. WE convinced him that he had something we needed. He is doing it for us and for America. He will not quit. He believes that he is best to lead America b/c we spent months convincing him of that.

[KT2000]

8. Clark to the convention

is what I hope.
Does anyone really want this to be a done deal? The kind that where the corporate/political machine "installs" their candidate, like Bush was?

We should have an exciting convention, where there are at least two candidates. The Republican convention will be big bore, but the Democratic convention can be exciting and an opportunity to speak to the "apoliticals" and get their attention.

Anyway, I do not want Clark to suspend his campaign.

[Myra]

9. *NO!* Please don't drop out General Clark, Senator Kerry, et al...

I don't want *anyone* pressured to drop out.
Not any of the candidates.
There hasn't been a single friggen primary yet.

And I find Clark and Kerry to be among the people who's voices
I consistently want to hear.
I listen to both of them every chance I get (on CSPAN for example).
Along with a few other candidates who I won't name here,
because I'm replying to a specific question.

I will say, again though:

I deeply resent Ted Koppel for spearheading the effort
to get good candidates to drop out.

Kiss off Koppel.

[Scott Lee]

10. Clark will definitely outlast Kerry

By how much, I don't know. Kerry's ego in this will not allow him to pull out until someone else does first or his finances get so ridiculously low that his wife raises the devil.


I am a Dean supporter - hope you don't mind me chiming in here.

[jumptheshadow]

11. Fascinating thread

I've been thinking about this very topic lately, and specifically, about whether anybody will sacrifice his or her candidacy to leverage votes over to a preferred candidate.

It kind of boils down to a case of "Democratic Primary Survivor" to me.

Do you choose to be either honorable -- or passive -- stay splintered from other candidates, and let Richard Hatch walk off with the prize?

Or do you form an alliance that increases your chances to snare first or second place?

I'll tell you, I could sure live with Clark-Kerry or Kerry-Clark.

[Justice]

26. Comparing the Primary To Survivor

I had this same thought yesterday independent of your thread, even thought I don't really watch the show and know only what I've read in the paper.

I was thinking not about the one where the person who one was the really nice guy - what was his name? People compared it to Hatch, who divided and conquered -- but in this episode/series - the guy who won was nice. I was thinking about Wesley Clark - he doesn't go negative on other campaigns except Bush, he speaks to people and treats everyone with respect. And in the end, he will get the votes at the convention - which will be in Boston - my hometown!

[BootinUp]

12. I think after Feb 3 states

It will be fairly clear who the top two are and that is the time for the candidates to consider the question. As for supporters, I think they all will act or react based on how strong they are for their choice. Was there more than one candidate they considered supporting and so on. One candidate supporters will stick with it until the candidate makes the decision.

Anyways, I think its tough for supporters to be faced with these scenarios and we should let them do it on their own, without a lot of pressure I mean.

The candidates that appear to be losing steam will probably consult with others for advice and make the best decision when the time comes.

[JNelson6563]

14. I agree with you

good post.

Julie--who likes nine voices bashing Bush

[Tom Rinaldo]

15. I think it would be fundamentally unfair

Unfair for a number of reasons, for anyone outside of a Candidate's innermost circle to suggest that they should withdraw from the race. I certainly am not suggesting that for Clark, Kerry, Edwards, Dean, whoever. In addition to of all of the other reasons people have mentioned, it really is the personal right of each candidate to campaign as long as they have the energy, spirit, and will to do so. No one has the standing to tell them when their personal dream is beyond reach. So much effort and personal sacrifice goes into running in a Presidential race. In a way it would be like telling a marathon racer, back somewhere off the lead, that they should stop running before reaching the finish line.

Furthermore, as has been eloquently said here before by others, each candidate brings a unique voice into the race (one or two of which I might not enjoy listening to - but that's me), and that is a contribution they can make independent of the final standings.

However I think the question I raised perhaps looms larger for supporters of some Presidential candidates than for the candidates themselves. I know there are more than a few people on DU who would prefer to be backing Denis Kucinich, but are working for someone else because they want to influence who is chosen from among the candidates who stand a reasonable chance of winning the nomination. Ultimately so much of this is about the necessity to defeat Bush in the Fall, and finding the (in this case) best man who can do that, and yes, trying to avoid if possible the nomination of anyone unlikely to do that.

[Octafish]

16. If anybody should drop out, it's Dean.

Dean and his bush-league rhetoric are dividing the party. Should the guy be the nominee, Dean will lose to Bush, big. Then he would have accomplish what Rove wanted, the destruction of the Liberal wing of the Democratic party.

[SheilaT]

18. Oh, that's a good idea.

The front runner, the man who's raised more money than any other Democrat ever, the one with more than half a million supporters so far registered on his web site, THAT candidate should drop out.

Yep. Makes sense to me. (walks away, shaking her head)

[clarknyc]

20. Sour grapes

make bitter wine...

[Clark Can WIN]

19. When 1/5 to 1/3 of the primaries have sailed

A consensus of support should coalesce behind a sane Democrat. Dean's left foot should be so far down his throat that only his posterior remains visible by then.

[FrenchieCat]

21. DON'T

Forget the supporters.....the will still be around.....that's what
25% of the Democratic block?

[Lil Kim]

22. Not to be mind numbingly obvious,

but once past Iowa and New Hampshire there's going to be a natural vetting, e.g. if Gepharte is trounced in both it's hard to imagine him not seriously considering dropping out, and likewise for others come the following 'super Tuesday.' Some diehards like Sharpton and maybe Kucinich will undoubtedly continue to the bitter end, though.

[zulchzulu]

23. It's too early to tell, but Clark-Kerry supporters are interchangeable imo

It's hard to speculate on what the actual political landscape is going to be until March 2 (Super Tuesday).

Iowa and New Hampshire will show if Kerry has picked up momentum or not. He's going to hang tough all the way past Super Tuesday and may pick up steam up to then. Clark won't really have anything until February 3 on. He may start taking away a lot of Dean's momentum then if Dean has any.

I'm guessing you may be wondering who would be the anti-Dean candidate to run against Dean. I'm certain Kerry and Clark would back each other if it got down to brass tacks. Most supporters of both candidates would certainly back each other more than go to the Dean camp.

[TexasSissy]

24. At the appropriate time

Dean should withdraw, since his campaign is divisive. But it's too early for that, since he's running neck and neck with Clark on a national basis right now.

Kerry's numbers are much lower nationally, but no votes have been cast. It's way to early for anyone with say over 5% of the vote, per polls, to withdraw.

Braun and others with absolutely no chance of winning should drop out as early as possible, though. They are in it only for personal gain and not the nomination.

[Walt Starr]

25. Dean will be there all the way to the convention

The only hope that any other candidate has is for Dean to not have 50% of the votes at the convention. A brokered convention in 2004 would be the doom of the Democratic Party.

Basically, if Dean does not get the nomination, I see the end of the Democratic Party similar to the end of the Whig party. If Dean is not the nominee, I will be staying home or, if my blood is still boiling, I will try to determine which third party will end up as the replacement for the Democratic Party.

[MariaS]

27. Wow

"I will try to determine which third party will end up as the replacement for the Democratic Party."

You get to do that. Can Ralph have a job?

[Walt Starr]

28. Yep, I certainly do get to do that

My personal opinion on the matter would determine precisely which third party I will join.

We then get to sit back and watch to see If I picked correctly.