LAT: Change in tone may have hurt Edwards in Iowa

[ellisonz]

Change in tone may have hurt Edwards in Iowa

By Scott Martelle, Los Angeles Times Staff Writer
December 21, 2007

GUTHRIE CENTER, IOWA -- Four years ago John Edwards, a fresh-faced senator from North Carolina, blew through the Iowa countryside like a wind of populist change.

Enough with the intraparty bickering, he told local Democrats in dining rooms, union halls and small-town diners, as he railed against "two Americas" increasingly divided by class.

The message struck a chord in Iowa. Edwards won 59% of the vote here in Guthrie County, an hour west of Des Moines, en route to a second-place statewide finish in the 2004 presidential caucuses -- a showing that helped him land his spot later that year as Massachusetts Sen. John F. Kerry's running mate.

Aiming to build on that Iowa support to propel his latest bid for the presidency, Edwards has been a regular presence in the state since he and Kerry were defeated by George W. Bush. Yet even though recent polls show that Edwards is only slightly behind Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama in Iowa, his support appears to have dropped off since 2004, when he took 32% of the vote statewide.

The defections, political analysts say, stem mainly from the stiff competitive challenges posed by Clinton and Obama and from changes in Edwards' campaign style -- which, until recently, often had an angrier tone than in the previous contest.

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http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-edwards21dec21,0,1139511.story?coll=la-home-center

[cali]

1. this article seem silly to me in light of the enthusiasm greeting

Edwards in Iowa lately. By all accounts, his support is solid and may be growing. I wouldn't be surprised if he took 32% of the vote, or more, this time.

[ellisonz]

3. Ther article is not charging that his remaining flock his not solid or enthusiastic...

What it's arguing is that he hasn't reached his 2004 numbers or his potential for 2008 because his image has shifted.

The Edwards campaign here dismissed the erosion of support, arguing that while it has lost the backing of some voters it has gained others. But it acknowledged that the well-financed competition had made a difference.

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Many of Edwards' supporters from four years ago say they will stick with him in the Jan. 3 caucuses. Polls also show he is the favorite backup choice among likely caucus-goers -- an important distinction in a process in which candidates' supporters often shift to other campaigns once their candidates no longer clear the 15% threshold for "viability."

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Yet erosion in Edwards' support emerges in conversations with Iowans from the banks of the Mississippi River westward into the south-central part of the state, where his message resonated the strongest in 2004.

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That impression hasn't been lost on the Edwards campaign. In early December, Edwards began toning down the rhetoric against his Democratic rivals and adopted a more upbeat approach evocative of his 2004 campaign.

[Lucinda]

4. He lost my primary support with the parsing video attack....

but I agree with you, I think he's going to do just fine in Iowa.

[maximusveritas]

2. He's rebounded somewhat recently

But there's no doubt he lost quite a bit of support.
The very first of poll of Iowa a year ago showed Edwards ahead with 36%, 20 points ahead of Hillary's 16%.
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2006/12/14/20607.aspx

He was steadily losing support, but has rebounded at the last minute. Will it be enough to win? Perhaps.