So what happens if Edwards wins, Hillary comes in 2nd, Obama 3rd

[Herman Munster]

Is the key thing for Hillary not necessarily who wins, but if she places ahead of Obama?

[BeyondGeography]

1. She's in trouble if Obama wins

all other outcomes can be spun away without a problem.

[Evergreen Emerald]

2. I think it will be Biden / Clinton / Edwards

And that is the way it should be.

[AX10]

3. Biden will have to pull off what Kerry did 4 years ago for...

that to happen.

[Evergreen Emerald]

9. It is true.

The media will help soon enough. They are almost finished with Clinton.

[AX10]

11. But does that promise Biden to rise enough?

[Evergreen Emerald]

12. I don't think that alone will do it

I am hoping he will get the Des Moines Register endorsement tomorrow. That, plus the debate, could help him. It is a long shot.

[karynnj]

25. They endorsed Edwards last time

if their board is mostly the same people, it's hard to see how they would then pick Biden (who I think is far better than Edwards.)

[Andy823]

17. I like Biden

But it would be a "miracle" if he won. Now if he did, and he went on to win NH, SC, Nevada and the nomination, I would be right there to support him, but it would be a real "long shot" to say the least!

[Czolgosz]

19. Kerry went from 18% to win. He didn't go from 3% to win. Biden has a good chance at passing

Richardson for 4th, and -- in a perfect storm -- Hillary's down-spiral could turn into a complete collapse and Biden could (1% chance?) finish 3rd.

[Joe the Revelator]

10. What senario has Obama going from first to at least 4th?

To quote Sen. Clinton, I'd like to hear this.

[surfermaw]

20. You are probably right, in reverse

[sniffa]

4. i think that's what she really needs if anything

i think Iowa is going to have a huge surprise (don't they always?) and i think it's going to be that one of the "top tier" candidates is not going to make the top 3... but the big surprise will be who moves up, and who gets knocked off.

right now i only feel that it will be a one for one (top falling, lower rising) but the next few weeks could bring a 2-1 or 1-2.

[Czolgosz]

5. Under those circumstances, it's a three way race in New Hampshire.

[Bullet1987]

7. I don't think Obama is going to come in 3rd

simply because he's trending up. His campaign would need to drop off the face of the Earth for that to happen. I think he either wins or comes in 2nd. His ground game is also very, very strong.

[Czolgosz]

16. Me neither, but that was the question. I think It'll be Edwards, Obama, Hillary, Richardson, Biden,

Kucinich, Dodd.

[babylonsister]

6. We carry on and talk about it then. nt

[xchrom]

8. the apocalypse?

[Webster Green]

13. Nothing happens!....I'll still vote for Dennis! (n/t)

[Hardrada]

14. No more cash bar. Drinks on the house!

[Franc_Lee]

15. I agree with Hillary, she'll be around until February 5th... then poof, Gone With The Wind...

[mtnsnake]

18. I think all it means is that Edwards did what he really needed to do

I think the pressure is more on him than any of them.

[Auntie Bush]

21. If Edwards doesn't win Iowa he's a gonner after all the time he's spent there.

[Stop Cornyn]

28. May as well say "If Obama doesn't win Iowa he's a gonner after all the money he's spent there."

Same for Hillary. They have both outspent Edwards; Edwards has out grassrootsed them. We'll see if cash or turf wins.

[Auntie Bush]

29. I s that a fact? Maybe Edward's has been out spent recently by

Obama and Clinton...since he's been living/campaigning there for about 4 years...I would think that the totals spent would make Edwards the highest spender in the state?

I believe he'd be a goner because if he can actively campaign there for 4 years and still lose...then it's going to be awfully difficult to pick up NH and SC and then go on and win Super Tuesday. Clinton needs to win to prove she's still electable. I don't think it's crucial for Obama to win
Iowa because I think he's on the raise in most all states and he can continually creep up. If Biden wins...that would surly be an upset and get people and undecided to take a serious look at him and I think they will mostly like what they see...of course they all have flaws and there will be some real surprises and who knows what will happen. We just need a little more patients.

[surfermaw]

22. You got that right...

[earthlover]

23. More likely result: Obama, Edwards, Hillary....

I think it is not too late for Biden to catch up for a third place finish, with Hillary being fourth.

The race is still in flux. Many voters may yet change their minds in the upcoming weeks.

Edwards could surprise us and win, but it would be a surprise. It would certainly be an interesting outcome for Hillary to tank so low that the race became a contest between Obama and Edwards. Again, advantage Obama here, but I would be delighted to see this race!

I think both Obama and Edwards have strength on the ground, and this is their strength compared to Hillary.

[laureloak]

24. What will happen is

WE WILL CELEBRATE!!!!!!!! Edwards will be taking the MO on the road!

[Redneck Socialist]

26. Then Obama wins NH

I assume you are talking about Iowa here.

Obama wins NH, Clinton comes in second and Edwards third. Clinton cleans up in February, wins the nom then loses to the republican. We go to war with everybody, the planet melts and we all die. More or less in that order. I may have some details wrong, but I'm pretty sure I have the gist of it down.

[fujiyama]

27. If Edwards wins IA I expect him to place atleast a strong second in NH

then again at that point Edwards could win NH. Hmmm, that would be exciting if Edwards and Obama place first and second respectively - the race coming to be between Edwards and Obama rather than Hillary and Obama. I'd be thrilled with that outcome. Both have much more integrity than Clinton and I would be willing to vote for either in the primary.

Anything less than second for Hillary will be completely humiliating and so will the media coverage after that. Even a second place showing will deflate a lot of hype about their machine.

However if Edwards ends up third in IA, his campaign is over. Hell, if he is a distant second in IA, his chances will be close to nil.

At this point, I don't see Biden having a sudden rise. While his support improved, the pace has been slow and not enough to get him in the top three.

But we'll wait and see.