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More than 20% of Iowa voters are undecided of support an "unviable" candidate

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Perky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 02:28 PM
Original message
Poll question: More than 20% of Iowa voters are undecided of support an "unviable" candidate
A composite of the current polling data on Real Clear politics of 3570 polled individuals suggest about 22% are undecided or ar supporting 2nd tier candidates.

In the Iowa caucus system at the precinct level, unless you have 15% of the caucus goers in a precinct you are ruled unviable and your supporters can either support a viable candidate or walk away from the process. If they walk away, everyone left standing benefits equally.

That effectively means that no one other than Obama, Edwards and Clinton will get any votes at all statewide.

So where is the MAJORITY of 22% undecided going to wind up?

Sorry, polls are turned off at Level 3.

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rinsd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 02:31 PM
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1. The problem is we have very little polling detailing whose 2nd choice is whose.
Last poll where we had that info is over a week old and things are moving fast

Since last month, however, Clinton was able to solidify her standing among some likely caucusgoers by increasing the number of people who said she would be their second choice. This is a critical factor in the Democratic caucus in Iowa. In the caucuses, a first round of balloting is conducted, and those candidates who do not win at least 15% support are ruled unviable and supporters are directed to a second choice among those who remained viable before a second round of balloting is conducted.

Last month, Obama and Edwards were much more preferred as a second choice among those candidates who appear to be unviable under Democratic caucus rules. Clinton appears to be gaining ground among those who might consider experience to be an important factor in choosing a nominee she wins the lions share of support among those who make Biden their first choice, and she does well among those who would first choose New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson.

Among those who make Obama their first choice, Edwards is their second choice, and vice versa. Among those who make Clinton their first choice, Obama is the favorite second choice.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1395
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MethuenProgressive Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 02:31 PM
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2. 1st, Yay! for real Iowans. 2nd, this is another reason the caucus format sucks.
In a real election, could you imagine say, Clintons staffers inside a polling place fighting with Obama staffers trying to people who already cast a ballot to change their minds?
I support bringing Democracy to Iowa.
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hayu_lol Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 02:49 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. Under Caucus rules then,
Clinton, Obama, Edwards are guaranteed 15% minimums apiece. Thats 45%. Gonna be a pretty good dogfight for the rest.
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Perky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 03:26 PM
Response to Reply #3
5. not quite. they each have to reach the threshold
but the polling data suggests that they actually have about 75% of the caucuss goers locked up. it hel the last 24% that there will be a dogfight for.

Yuou also have to wonder if there might be some horse trading going on. Say in some Cedar Rapids precinct. Edwards has 50% of the 800 that show up Clinton has 25% and Obama has 20% would a saavy preinct captain tell 100 of his folks to go support Obama to insure Hillary finishes in third? If Obama helps him out in other precincts?

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dmallind Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 03:24 PM
Response to Original message
4. Depends
on WHO the unviable candidate is. Dodd and Richardson and Biden may go to either Clinton or Obama or Edwards probably in that order. Kucinich and Gravel fans will probably go in exactly the reverse order. Who benefits? Depends on the breakdown. IIRC Edwards had a pretty strong showing on "2nd choice" data last time I saw any, but it's been a while.
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