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Iowa Independent: "Obama Tops Democratic Power Rankings, Clinton Takes Third"

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ClarkUSA Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 12:51 PM
Original message
Iowa Independent: "Obama Tops Democratic Power Rankings, Clinton Takes Third"
Edited on Fri Dec-14-07 12:53 PM by ClarkUSA
Below, we seek to answer (for the fourth time) the question, "If the Democratic caucuses were held tonight, how would they result?"
We based these rankings on impressions we received from activists, staff, and caucus-goers across the state and, at the most basic
level, gut feelings and instincts. We hope only that our work provides one additional point of reference to readers who are interested
in the perspective of Iowans who have watched the race unfold here for the past year... If the Democratic caucuses were held tonight,
here is how we think they would turn out:

First Place

Barack Obama -- Upward Momentum -- Obama has enjoyed a great week of press following his events with Oprah Winfrey. His organization
is showing signs of real strength with its nearly 1,000 house parties across the state Thursday night, and he seems to have strong second-
choice support. If the caucuses were held tonight, he would win.

Second Place

John Edwards -- Edwards may still have the strongest organization in Iowa, but that is no longer enough to keep him in the number one spot.
His base of supporters is slowly shrinking, and many seem to be floating in Obama's direction. Edwards still has many talented activists in his
corner and may be viable in more rural precincts than Obama, but if the caucuses were held tonight, we predict he would take second.

Third Place

Hillary Clinton -- Downward Momentum -- Clinton's campaign has demonstrated a renewed commitment to retail politics at recent events,
but neither she nor her husband are drawing the large crowds they once did. Fairly or not, she is slowly being branded as the 'negative'
candidate, diminishing her second-choice support. The excitement surrounding her candidacy is waning, and her campaign seems to be
too busy putting out public relations fires from day to day to do much about it. The campaign itself, along with independent groups like
Emily's List, have devoted significant resources to build an organization here that should not be underestimated, but, if the caucuses
were held tonight, we think she would finish third.

http://iowaindependent.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=1643


Biden comes in fourth, Richardson is fifth, Dodd slips in at sixth while Kucinich comes in at seventh with Gravel bringing up the rear.
Mark Penn is doing a great job -- for Obama and Edwards. I for one hope Penn doesn't get fired. ;-)

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SaveElmer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 12:53 PM
Response to Original message
1. No doubt Obama is the frontrunner...nt
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ClarkUSA Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 12:54 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. And no doubt Hillary is the national frontrunner...
For now.
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Colobo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 12:56 PM
Response to Reply #2
4. Hillary is the frontrunner. Obama's just catching her.
:bounce:
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Bullet1987 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 12:55 PM
Response to Reply #1
3. The frontrunner in Iowa...yea
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SaveElmer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 01:12 PM
Response to Reply #3
6. New Hampshire as well...nt
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Colobo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 01:13 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. It's tied in NH.
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MadBadger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 01:19 PM
Response to Reply #1
9. Sounds like you're trying to lower your expectations on purpose.
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SaveElmer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 01:26 PM
Response to Reply #9
10. Man you guys just can't be satisfied...
Screaming how Obama is ahead in these states...posting every poll to prove it...I agree with you...because unlike others...I am not a poll denier...and now I get accused of lowering expectations...

Like my opinion is going to sway anyone...

Obama is clearly the frontrunner in Iowa and New Hampshire...Hillary would still have to be considered the frontrunner in SC...and on Feb. 5th
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Adelante Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 12:56 PM
Response to Original message
5. For the Bidenites - nice
Fourth Place

Joe Biden -- Upward Momentum -- Biden seems to be slowly emerging as the default second choice for caucus-goers who do not wish to support one of the top three candidates in the second round of voting. (This is a space similar in certain ways to the space Edwards occupied in 2004, when he won a surprise second place finish.) Other candidates can't seem to say one bad thing about him, which doesn't hurt.
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ClarkUSA Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 01:49 PM
Response to Reply #5
11. It seems Obama and Biden are the only ones with upward momentum.
Interesting.
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BeyondGeography Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 01:19 PM
Response to Original message
8. Obama had a great day yesterday
Good that he followed Oprahpalooza up with a strong debate. Blunts the celebrity candidate meme.
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monmouth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 01:57 PM
Response to Original message
12. I'm loving the sound of Biden/Obama...n/t
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