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New Iowa Poll: Obama 33%, Hillary 24%, Edwards 24%

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Colobo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 12:35 PM
Original message
New Iowa Poll: Obama 33%, Hillary 24%, Edwards 24%
Presidential candidates Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee hold 9-point leads in Iowa with less than three weeks to go before the Jan. 3 caucuses, according to a new poll conducted for Lee Enterprises newspapers.

The poll, conducted with 500 likely caucus-goers from Dec. 10 through Dec. 13, said Obama, a senator from Illinois, led in the Democratic race with 33 percent, followed by Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., and former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina, who had 24 percent each.

New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson was next with 9 percent, followed by Sen. Joe Biden, D-Del., with 3 percent and Sen. Christopher Dodd, D-Conn., and Rep. Dennis Kucinich, D-Ohio, with 1 percent each.

Five percent said they were undecided.



http://www.siouxcityjournal.com/articles/2007/12/14/new...
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TwilightGardener Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 12:36 PM
Response to Original message
1. Hee hee hee!
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Botany Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 12:38 PM
Response to Original message
2. That is way too small of a sample to get a good poll from
not unless those 500 really are a good cross section of Iowa dems.
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Perky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 12:45 PM
Response to Reply #2
16. 500 to 600 is about average
And they are only talking to people who are likely caucusgoers. I am not sure if there is alot of diversity in Iowa among caucus goers to begin with.

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Adelante Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 12:51 PM
Response to Reply #16
23. Only those who caucused in 2004 and 2006
That's a good way to do it. I agree it is the usual size of state polls I've seen.
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maximusveritas Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 12:45 PM
Response to Reply #2
17. Uh, that's the same size as almost every other poll
Some have as little as 300. 500 is a good sample for likely Democratic voters.
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FogerRox Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 01:04 PM
Response to Reply #2
31.  A 9 pt lead with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percent is very significant
The poll, which was conducted by Maryland-based Research 2000, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percent.

Sioux City Journal
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Egnever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 12:38 PM
Response to Original message
3. Wow
thats a pretty dramatic decline over the last month for clinton.

Interesting that edwards remains steady almost throughout.
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rinsd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 12:38 PM
Response to Original message
4. Huh? Research 2000 just put out a poll today.
http://www.yourconcord.com/primaryblog/monitor_poll_oba...

* Obama -- 32 percent
* Clinton -- 31 percent
* John Edwards -- 18 percent
* Bill Richardson -- 8 percent
* Dennis Kucinich -- 3 percent
* Joe Biden -- 2 percent
* Chris Dodd -- 1 percent
* Undecided -- 5 percent
* Margin of error: +/- 5 percentage points
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jenmito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 12:41 PM
Response to Reply #4
7. That's for NH, not IA. n/t
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Colobo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 12:42 PM
Response to Reply #7
8. Mmmmm!
Gobama!
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jenmito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 12:43 PM
Response to Reply #8
13. He's on the O-train express to the nomination!
:D
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BenDavid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 12:46 PM
Response to Reply #13
19. If he does, then the dems lose and most likely the senate too
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Perky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 12:49 PM
Response to Reply #19
21. Funny...I have used the same argument about Hillary
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jenmito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 12:59 PM
Response to Reply #19
27. Yeah sure...
that and your other statement that his wife said Black people should vote for him just because he's Black. :eyes:
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Carrieyazel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 02:41 PM
Response to Reply #13
36. I doubt anyone is really "ahead" in Iowa.
Other polls show the race as a dead heat in the 20's for all 3 "frontrunners". With Richardson within shouting distance.
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rinsd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 12:43 PM
Response to Reply #7
11. D'oh!
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Perky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 12:43 PM
Original message
Is that Iowa or NH?
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rinsd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 12:43 PM
Response to Original message
14. It was NH. I goofed.
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JackORoses Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 12:50 PM
Response to Reply #14
22. oh, you goofed, you mean you weren't deliberately being dishonest as you like to accuse me of being?
Edited on Fri Dec-14-07 12:51 PM by JackORoses
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rinsd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 12:56 PM
Response to Reply #22
26. I haven't shown a pattern and admitted my mistake.
You on the other hand have been shown you were wrong/dishonest yet plowed ahead anyway.
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JackORoses Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 02:51 PM
Response to Reply #26
42. First off, there is a difference between wrong and dishonest, correct?
Second I haven't been proven wrong. I said based on the trend, Hillary is done for.
The trend continues.
You will see evidence on Jan 3.

What will you do if Hillary is done for then?

Will you appreciate my prediction, or just chalk it up to luck.
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Perky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 12:43 PM
Response to Reply #4
9. Is that Iowa or NH?
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DrFunkenstein Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 12:44 PM
Response to Reply #4
15. Damn, Obama is Up in New Hamshire, Too!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Last I heard he was a point below Clinton. This is great news. Thanks for posting!
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jenmito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 12:46 PM
Response to Reply #15
18. And he cut Hillary's lead in SC from 14% to 7%...
and rising.
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TeamJordan23 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 12:51 PM
Response to Reply #18
25. I'm not too worried about SC. SC will easily fall to Obama if he wins Iowa/NH. nm
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jenmito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 01:00 PM
Response to Reply #25
28. I agree. Even if he comes in 2nd in IA to Edwards. n/t
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Adelante Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 12:39 PM
Response to Original message
5. Thanks
I try not to get too excited, but he's making it damned hard. :)
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jenmito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 12:40 PM
Response to Original message
6. So he's now widening his lead in IA, winning in NH, and catching up to Hillary quickly in SC!
GREAT NEWS! If Obama beats Edwards in IA, Edwards should drop out so his supporters can go to Obama, which, after Hillary's smear attempt, is more likely to happen in NH than before when more of his supporters would've gone to Hillary.
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cali Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 12:43 PM
Response to Original message
10. Looks to me like Obama is really pulling away
He could win big in Iowa, I think.
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Perky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 12:48 PM
Response to Reply #10
20. I;ve been predicting 38% for the last month
I may have to push it to 40%

He goes beyond 40% and It might well be over.
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Bullet1987 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 12:51 PM
Response to Reply #20
24. If Obama wins by more than 10% points
in Iowa...it's probably as good as over for Clinton.
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Carrieyazel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 02:43 PM
Response to Reply #10
38. Being ahead in any poll before Iowa, usually means you lose Iowa.
If you're a Democrat, and not the incumbent.
This is not a good place for Obama to be. We've seen it time and time again.
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TeamJordan23 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 12:43 PM
Response to Original message
12. Obama is pulling away.nm
Edited on Fri Dec-14-07 12:45 PM by TeamJordan23
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yodermon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 01:01 PM
Response to Original message
29. Do Any of these Iowa Polls take into account voters' 2nd choice candidate?
Isn't that the huge wrinkle that could prove all these polls to be Crap?
Isn't Edwards the top 2nd-choice candidate?
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rinsd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 01:07 PM
Response to Reply #29
32. In the latest Hotline poll, Edwards was the top for 2nd choice.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/december%20200...

What we don't get is who is the 2nd choice of whom.

Some polling analysis has talked about Obama and Edwards supporters having one or the other as their top 2nd choice canceling each other out (at least for Iowa) with Hillary doing well with Biden & Richardson supporters. But that analysis is at least a week old.
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Nimrod2005 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 01:03 PM
Response to Original message
30. Obama is running away with it now......nt
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Carrieyazel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 02:44 PM
Response to Reply #30
39. I doubt he's running away with it. These primary polls are notoriously unreliable.
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jgraz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 01:29 PM
Response to Original message
33. Hey, at least Hillary can be one of his advisors
:rofl:
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CoffeeCat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 01:30 PM
Response to Original message
34. These polls reflect what is happening...
...on the ground in Iowa.

There is such a groundswell for Obama. That campaign is on fire.

Edwards continues his steadfast plan of meeting many Iowans in small,
one-on-one groups. You don't hear much about this, but he is all
over this state, talking with potential caucus goers.

Hillary is not liked here and most are really disgusted
with how she has campaigned. She rudely accused a guy of being a plant--when
he dared to ask her a question about Iran. Then, it turns out she planted
questions at two Iowa events, and lied about it. Everyone is talking
about this.

It's not only to look at the numbers, but to look at the TRENDS. Hillary
is tanking. Obama is rising. Edwards is holding his own.

By the time this thing rolls around--Hillary will be in third place, and
possibly fourth.

I'm proud of my state for weeding out the warmongering, vacuous chaff.
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jgraz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 02:42 PM
Response to Reply #34
37. Is it really a groundswell for Obama
or a (whatever the opposite of "groundswell" is) for Hillary? Groundshrink?
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jenmito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 02:46 PM
Response to Reply #37
40. Both. n/t
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Carrieyazel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 02:39 PM
Response to Original message
35. Hard to trust any one poll. And Iowans are notorious for ignoring the polls.
Hard to believe any one candidate has anything above 25-30% in Iowa. Many Iowans still undecided and can change their minds.
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Franc_Lee Donating Member (287 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 02:47 PM
Response to Original message
41. Obama and Hillary lost one point each from yesterday?
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loveangelc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 09:26 PM
Response to Original message
43. Obama supporters shouldn't get too excited yet...
there is still 3 weeks which is a lifetime in politis to go. If Hillary now does well in future polls it will be seen as a comeback.
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