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Rasmussen daily graph for 12/14/07 - Clinton and Edwards up 1, Obama down 1

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DavidDvorkin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 10:33 AM
Original message
Rasmussen daily graph for 12/14/07 - Clinton and Edwards up 1, Obama down 1







(Pretend that the 10 and 20 lines are actually 0. Does anyone know how to make Excel label different parts of the axis differently?)

Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion
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denem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 10:35 AM
Response to Original message
1. The fix is in
obviously. Thanks again for your work. Greatly appreciated.
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TwilightZone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 10:38 AM
Response to Original message
2. How long a time frame is the extrapolation based on?
Edited on Fri Dec-14-07 10:43 AM by TwilightZone
Hillary's recent semi-recovery seems to be underrepresented in it. The extrapolation shows her trailing off, but the recent data doesn't seem to support that.
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DavidDvorkin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 11:38 AM
Response to Reply #2
5. It's a one-week extrapolation
But the trend lines are a subjective choice on my part, in a sense. (I should probably add something about that to the post, so that it always shows up.)

I played around with different types of trend lines and settled on a second-order polynomial fit because it responds to recent data but doesn't overrespond. But that's all it is - it isn't revealing some kind of underlying process, the way fits to physical data may do.

If a real, long-term trend develops for one of the candidates, then the trend line will give us an idea of what will happen if that trend continues.
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TwilightZone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 11:51 AM
Response to Reply #5
7. Sorry, I wasn't clear in my question.
I knew that the extrapolation was one week, since it's labeled. My question really pertained to the trend. It looked like a moving average (that was extrapolated), so I was curious to see how long the "rolling" period was, if that was the case.

Long-term trends may not tell us much, considering the historic last-minute volatility in a lot of places - in Iowa, in particular. Someone else posted an article that said that something like 60% of Iowans didn't choose a candidate in '04 until the last week.

Thanks for the follow-up and for tracking this info in the first place. I always find it interesting.
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DavidDvorkin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 12:16 PM
Response to Reply #7
8. Oh, I see
It covers all the data. I've been thinking that it should start fairly recently, instead, and I may play with that to see what difference it makes.
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TwilightZone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 12:20 PM
Response to Reply #8
9. Thanks again.
I'm a math mind, so stuff like this always makes me a little overanalytical. :)
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DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 10:38 AM
Response to Original message
3. Two Small Points
I am suspicious of Rasmussen's polls and a lot of these small movements are statistical noise...

This doesn't reflect on your work which is great...
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DavidDvorkin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 11:40 AM
Response to Reply #3
6. They're four-day rolling averages
Which smooths out a lot of noise that we don't even see. But I agree that a point or two up or down doesn't mean anything, as we can see from how the candidates then settle back to where they were.

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Lucinda Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 10:59 AM
Response to Original message
4. Interesting stuff DavidD thanks! A couple of links for the excel info:
Edited on Fri Dec-14-07 11:00 AM by wlucinda
Its been a thousand years since I used excel and it's not on this computer so I can't tinker. Here are a couple links you might check out re:the axis question:

http://www.ozgrid.com/Excel/highlight-axis.htm
http://blogs.msdn.com/excel/search.aspx?q=multiple+labe...
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BootinUp Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 12:25 PM
Response to Original message
10. suggestion
it might be time to lop off some of the early months, might give a better view of whats happening, maybe start from September. :)
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DavidDvorkin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 12:38 PM
Response to Reply #10
11. Yes, I'll probably do that
Maybe with tomorrow's posting.
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