Obama can win.

[cali]

And the crap about how he can't because he's *gasp* black or his middle name is *double gasp* Hussein, is just that: crap.

It's true that there are people that won't vote for a black man, just as it's true that there are people that won't vote for a woman, or a rich trial attorney. All candidates have their deficits.

Obama, I believe, does a great job of both embracing his ethnic background and bridging the racial divide. He's been successfully doing this throughout his campaign. He'll do it if he's the candidate. He handles it deftly and with grace. And if you don't think that counts, you're wrong.

Buying into the "he's not electable because he's black and people will paint him as a Muslim" is buying into bigotry. And that's shameful.

He's a very gifted man, and an incredibly gifted politician. He doesn't need the South to win, and he stands as good a chance of winning states like NM and even in VA as any of the others.

Take a look at who he'd possibly be matched against:

Guiliani? By the time we're through with Rudy, he'll look like the sleaziest politician ever, and Obama's record and character will stand up well against that picture. Sure they'll try and paint him as unexperienced, but that's not insurmountable.

Romney? A cardboard cutout with no humor, no likability and his own religion problem.

Huckabee? Please.

The electorate itself has shifted significantly over the past 4 years. There are more democrats and independents and far fewer repukes than there were in 2004. More red/purple states are competitive.

Obama can win the general election. And if he's the candidate, he stands an excellent chance next year.

[BootinUp]

1. The main quibble with your argument

is this "he doesn't need the south" nonsense. It sounds so 2004.

[cali]

3. Which of our candidates is going to win

which southern state? I think they all have a shot at VA- beyond that? I doubt it. Look, the repukes won't get CA or the Northeast and we won't get the Southern States. All the dem nominee needs beyond the states that Kerry/Edwards won in 2004 is Ohio. They also have a shot at CO and NM- to mention a couple.

[BootinUp]

4. My thoughts on it

are that we must be competitive in the South to some degree in order to win. States like OH and FL and WI have too many voters that align with the South if we are not.

[cali]

5. but competitive to some degree is pretty meaningless, no?

It's a winner take all system. And I don't see any dem winning the south. Furthermore, I'm not sure what you're suggesting re OH, FL and WI. What does how the dem nominee do in Georgia, say, have to do with how he/she does in OH?

[BootinUp]

11. no its not meaningless.

If our candidate turns off the southern moderates you can be sure we are in trouble in the other states I mentioned. While Hillary has her problems with segments of voters she can probably do better than Obama in this regard based on my read of the polls over the last year.

[FrenchieCat]

51. So let Obama be the nominee and watch those 40% of Black folks eligible to vote who don't vote

VOTE.

Obama might be able to win the South better than you think. Not everyone in the South is a bigot....and these new Young and minority voters will cancel them out and then some.

[BootinUp]

57. Well,

First I wasn't alluding to bigotry as being the problem. More just the overall image of a more liberal candidate. Second, I think the idea he will greatly increase turnout for us is little more than a dream at this point. I don't feel good about betting the next 8 years after Bush on it. I am just along for the ride though at this point. I am losing interest in defending Hillary on this board.

[elizm]

2. Absolutely.

As Cenk Uygar said one day on The Young Turks....people are going to look at the Republican candidate and look at Obama and say...I'm going with the guy who's always smiling and gives me hope.

[Carrieyazel]

29. Obama has many other vulnerabilites. Being likable is only one part of the equation.

This country still has too much racism and prejudice for a black male to be elected.

[elizm]

42. Your opinion. nt

[Zueda]

49. You're Ignorant!

I bet you couldn't even tell us will the nations first black governor was elected can you?

[Carrieyazel]

55. Yes I can. Virginia 1989 Doug Wilder.

It was a very close election. Wilder almost lost.

[proudmoddemo]

6. Agreed

The Clinton campaign is mimicking the Republicans, and it's falling flat because people are tired of this BS. Democrats deserve better than to have a person that thinks Mark Penn is a good Democrat worthy of running a campaign as our nominee.

[cali]

8. Penn aside

Clinton can win too. And the OP has nothing to do with either Penn or Clinton. I also think it's largely bullshit to claim that Clinton is running a republican campaign.

[proudmoddemo]

9. Hard to put Penn Aside

He's calling the shots at her campaign, which is why she won't even get to the general election. Penn is an idiot and a union buster. He is a total sleaze ball. Good luck winning Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Ohio without big time involvement from labor. As long as Penn's around her candidacy, labor will be lukewarm at best in their support of Hillary.

[cali]

10. He's a sleaze. He's a campaign manager. You really have no

inside knowledge about what shots he's calling. And you can't know that she won't be the nominee when not a single vote has been cast. None of us can make any iron clad prognostications. They're supremely silly.

[proudmoddemo]

40. Contrary to That

I do have the right to hold candidates accountable for the sleaze balls they surround themselves with. After Dick Cheney, it's the prudent and patriotic thing to do.

[Perry Logan]

7. The 2008 election is completely different from past elections. Americans are grossed out by Repubs.

[BootinUp]

12. Thats silly

The Repukelican that is nominated will run to the center and it will be a very similar race to 2000 and 2004 in terms of party identification.

[cali]

13. I don't think so.

First of all, there's been a hemorrhage of repukes from the party, and growth in dem and indie registrations. Secondly, it will be very difficult for Huckabee to run to the center and get away with it. Add to that that if he's the nom, there will be a marked lack of support from the party movers and shakers. Guiliani can run to the center, but he's not only tainted with corruption like Huckabee, but he doesn't have Huckabee's likability. Romney is a curious guy. He should be appealing, but there's something singularly cardboard about him. And his flip flopping is epic. There's not one of these guys who won't lose a certain portion of the repuke base. You also have the fact that dems are out raising the repukes by a large margin, the downturn in the economy (an issue where voters trust dems over repukes by a big margin) and the general dissatisfaction with republicans.

I don't think it will be anything like 2004- particularly as regards party identification. At least that's what all objective analysis at this time indicates.

[Carrieyazel]

32. I see your argument, but why would Obama be the person they would turn to?

And for a lot of the oldest voters, 2008 might be their last election before they are gone. The 2012 pres. election might be the first one with a strikingly different demo.

[MethuenProgressive]

14. The GOP will destroy the vunerable and inexperienced junior Senator.

He's shown no toughness at all, crying at every percieved slight, falling for every bit of bait tossed his way by Novak et al. Rove is chomping at the bit to get a crack at him.

[cali]

16. nonsense thrown out as infallible truth is still nonsense.

Obama has shown plenty of toughness and the proof of that is his handling of the Clinton attacks. He hasn't cried as you purport. He's tossed it right back at Clinton. And the Novak thing didn't damage him at all. As for the old "Rove is champing at the bit" line- pffft. You have 0 evidence of that.

[MethuenProgressive]

18. I never called your OP nonsense, but now that you mention it...

[Carrieyazel]

31. Exactly. He has many vulnerabilities. No shot to win a national general election.

Not in 2008.

[Labors of Hercules]

39. and Bill Richardson does?

[Carrieyazel]

41. Yes, he's the best national candidate and the most electable by far.

Republicans know that it's basically over for them, if he's the nominee.

[twiceshy]

15. Here's why he can win

My brother in law. Ex-army Vietnam, businessman, conservative, read his book and liked what he had to say and will vote for him. He lives in Virginia. I think there are a lot of men who would vote for Obama who would not vote for Clinton in any event. You cant win without some of the 35-40% of the voters who fall in the category - white male voters. Just my informal poll of men at my office says she reminds them of their ex-wife. And I live in a liberal state.

[venable]

17. I know, let's nominate a candidate who 'doesn't need the south'...brilliant.

I have no words.

[cali]

19. Which of our candidates can win the south?

Which of theirs can win New England and CA? Obama has as good a chance as winning marginal southern states as anyone else.

[venable]

20. if you believe obama and edwards are equally appealing in the south

then you and I (and virtually every poll and common, currently received wisdom) are not on the same planet (which I think you'll agree, probably happily).

And I am not talking about the fact that he is African-American. It is a matter of background, bio, direct addressing of southern, particularly rural concerns, so please don't suggest I'm saying the racist voters are what will bring him down. Are you familiar with Edwards Rural Recovery Act? Check it out, southern voters will in a GE.

What you propose is simply, measurably, not the case. Does that stop you from stating it? Even if it is your opinion, you ought to explain why your opinion is right, as opposed to polls and common sense.

Obama's lead in SC has nothing to do, finally, with electability in the GE, and I am surprised you don't see that. Or am I?

[cali]

26. lol!!

Edwards won't win any southern states. He didn't remotely help Kerry 4 years ago, and if he's the nominee he won't pick up the Carolinas or Georgia, or Alabama or MS, or and other deep red southern state. You're deluding yourself if you believe he will. I have history on my side. You have, well, nothing but the quaint idea that rural southern voters will go for him.

[venable]

44. ciao, bella. nt

[Lucinda]

46. The difference is that he's not the same Edwards who ran last time. I'm not so sure he

won't run well in the south. Especially with the issues he is running on. I think his populist message will play well down here.

[jillan]

21. Agreed!

[BenDavid]

22. If obama wins the nomination then fla. ohio stays red. All southern

states stay red. Someone tell me where obama plays well that he can win, other than the blue states already in the blue column?

[cali]

23. New Mexico and VA for two. n/t

[Carrieyazel]

33. Obama would not bring any states beyond the base.

About 220 electoral votes would be his ceiling.
He's extremely vulnerable, as many northern Democratic Senators are.

[loveangelc]

47. Because these states would turn blue for Hillary Clinton of all people?

lol!

[Hippo_Tron]

48. Ohio's Republican Party is in shambles

And they don't control the voting anymore. The GOP has an uphill climb to win Ohio against any Democrat this time around.

[oasis]

24. His ineptitude in the Oval Office will pave the way for another Rethug president in 2012.

You can't repair America on "charisma".

[Carrieyazel]

34. I doubt he even gets there, so at least that's one thing we won't have to worry about.

[FrenchieCat]

52. What makes you think that he is so inept? Hell, at least he knew that Iraq

Was a dumb war. Doesn't seem like Hillary or Edwards had a clue on that.

Plu-EEze....why is it that this man is not given credit for the intelligence that he possesses?

[oasis]

53. Being right about the Iraq war doesn't mean he's able to steer America back on a steady course.

What kind of a team can Obama assemble that would be competent enough to tackle, and overcome the multiplicity of foriegn and domestic problems that face Americans?

Hillary already has the knowledge and a team in place to ge t the job done.

America has to get it right this time.

[annie1]

59. any of the dems could mess up in the white house. Bill was...

a very popular president, and did a very good job, and we still got a thug after he left. Don't be silly.

[hedgehog]

25. I heard a pair of interesting comments on Diane Rehm this morning.

I'm not sure who said what, but the first reporter commented that Senator Clinton was the inevitable candidate only as long as she was the inevitable candidate. What that piece of Zen translates to is that a lot of people didn't really want Hillary to be the candidate, but thought that no one could beat her. Now that she's proven vulnerable, people are shifting to the candidates they prefer.

After discussing the Oprah effect, the second reporter commented that al of a sudden a lot of people are thinking that Obama can win both the nomination and the election. In this case, people liked him but reluctantly put him back on the shelf because of course "no nb black man can win the Presidency". Now that that meme is in serious doubt, people are joining the Obama camp.

[Catherine Vincent]

27. I'll tell you one thing, if Obama can win the nomination,

I have no doubt the Democratic party will fight like hell to put him in the White House. I do think the Republicans would attack him less as they would other Democratic candidates. Hillary, on the other hand, if she were to win the nomination, she would get the party's backing but there are a lot of Clinton-haters on our side as well. You can witness some of it here. It would be tough.

[Carrieyazel]

28. No, he does not stand "an excellent chance"

Only one (1) Democratic sitting Senator has ever made it to the White House. JFK. And that election has always been questioned.

Outside of JFK, the last Democratic ex-Senator with no executive experience to get into the White House was Franklin Pierce in the 1850's. If you're going for President, The Senate is a terrible place in which to run from; and even if you leave the Senate, having no executive experience kills your chances.

No African American has ever been elected.

Many older voters, in their 60's, 70's and 80's who've voted in elections for decades, are still around; and many have not let go of their prejudices. And the oldest voters vote in droves. The youngest voters are the ones with the lowest turnout.

Many Repukes and Repuke-leaning Independents are still out there in large numbers in a general election and will vote; they are desperate to keep a Repuke in the White House, and know this is their last shot to keep any kind of power.

In 2008, Obama's chances are slim to none of getting elected President.

[hedgehog]

30. In 1960, no Irish CAtholic had ever been elected and the last man

elected from the Senate was Franklin Peirce in the 1850's.

[Franc_Lee]

35. I'm looking forward to an Obama Presidency, right now this country needs more soul after Bush's BS.

[hayu_lol]

36. All three leaders are electable...

at least to gain the nomination. All three!

After the Iowa/NH smoke and fog disappears, then it is up to the individual war chests to buy the time that will be needed in the GE.

This is not a Kerry election, this is something different. May go down to one of the last states to finally choose the nominee.

For activists, this will be an interesting primary.

[Carrieyazel]

37. All 3 "frontrunners" have serious electability problems.

No executive experience, and Senators/ex-Senators are always a bad bet.
Richardson gives you the total package and far more electable than all three of them.

[Carrieyazel]

38. Obama is easy prey in a general election. We need somebody who can win.

Hillary is also unelectable.
Richardson will win, if nominated. You can't say that about the others.

[loveangelc]

50. LOL

[readmoreoften]

43. Maybe. But I think it would be a terrible, short presidency. The last thing we need. /nt

[oasis]

54. Hillary is the only candidate with a competent team that's ready to go.(eom)

[calteacherguy]

45. He will. K&R.

[Franc_Lee]

56. Obama can win I don't believe Hillary & Bill can...

[jakem]

60. Billary?

could be the new Bennifer!

[annie1]

58. Of course he can win.

[Carrieyazel]

61. He can't. Not next year anyway.

There are just too many obstacles for him to overcome.