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New NH Poll from Concord Monitor: Obama 32 %, Clinton 31%, Edwards 18%

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MadBadger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 12:06 AM
Original message
New NH Poll from Concord Monitor: Obama 32 %, Clinton 31%, Edwards 18%
Edited on Fri Dec-14-07 12:13 AM by hnmnf
Important information is that Obama trounces the opponents in the undeclared voter category. Counting only registered dems, Clinton leads Obama by 9 points. Also, Obama now holds a 2 point lead over Clinton for NH women.

http://www.concordmonitor.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID...


Barack Obama has come from behind to turn the Democratic presidential race in New Hampshire into a toss-up, according to a new Monitor opinion poll. The results - which show Obama with a one-point edge over Hillary Clinton - mirror other polls released this week, indicating that Clinton's once-imposing lead has evaporated in the run-up to New Hampshire's Jan. 8 primary.

The poll suggests that the Democratic race could hinge on the turnout of undeclared voters, who aren't registered with either political party. Much of Obama's backing comes from undeclared voters, while registered Democrats make up the bulk of Clinton's support. In New Hampshire, undeclared voters can vote in either party primary, giving them sway in both contests.

"The more undeclared voters that decide to vote in the Democratic primary, the better chance Obama wins," said Del Ali, president of Research 2000, the Maryland-based nonpartisan polling firm that conducted the poll for the Monitor on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. "What Hillary Clinton has to hope is that more of the established Democrats come out to vote."

//snip//

Of the likely Democratic primary voters surveyed for the Monitor poll, 37 percent aren't registered with a political party. When it came to those undeclared voters, Obama trounced his opponents: 40 percent of undeclared voters likely to vote in the Democratic primary backed Obama, compared with 23 percent for Clinton and 13 percent for former North Carolina senator John Edwards.

Clinton, in contrast, won the support of more registered Democrats: 36 percent said they'd vote for Clinton, compared with 27 percent for Obama and 21 percent for Edwards.

//snip//

Apart from undeclared voters, Obama now draws considerable support from women. Of the female, likely Democratic voters surveyed, 34 percent say they'd choose Obama, compared with 32 percent for Clinton. Female voters have widely been considered a key demographic for Clinton, the former first lady and U.S. senator from New York.

//snip//

Obama, Clinton and Edwards were the only Democratic candidates to win double-digit support in the poll - 32 percent of likely Democratic primary voters surveyed backed Obama, 31 percent chose Clinton, and 18 percent went with Edwards. Richardson followed with 8 percent support. Dennis Kucinich, Joe Biden and Chris Dodd all placed in the low single digits.

The results of the Monitor poll were similar to those of a University of New Hampshire poll released earlier this week. That survey showed Clinton leading Obama by just one percentage point, well within the margin of error.

In the Monitor's July poll, 33 percent of likely Democratic voters surveyed chose Clinton, while 25 percent picked Obama. Edwards won 15 percent of the vote in that poll, while Richardson took 7 percent.

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ClarkUSA Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 12:08 AM
Response to Original message
1. The good news keeps coming for Obama...
Edited on Fri Dec-14-07 12:09 AM by ClarkUSA
Wait until the post-Bill Shaheen poll data arrives. That will be interesting.
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Selatius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 12:09 AM
Response to Original message
2. So basically Clinton is in trouble in both Iowa and New Hampshire.
I don't think the Shaheen gaffe will help her either.
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Kurt_and_Hunter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 12:10 AM
Response to Original message
3. .
Edited on Fri Dec-14-07 12:25 AM by Kurt_and_Hunter
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MadBadger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 12:13 AM
Response to Reply #3
4. Didnt misread it, just wrote the wrong thing.
Fixed it, thanks.
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David Dunham Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 12:20 AM
Response to Reply #4
5. Clinton will win with a strong Democratic turnout
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AX10 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 12:21 AM
Response to Reply #5
7. I hope she does.
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proudmoddemo Donating Member (288 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 12:28 AM
Response to Reply #5
10. Independents Can Vote in New Hampshire Too
So they need to be included in the total. In the open primary, and among Democratic-leaning independents especially, Hillary's got problems.
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0007 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 01:21 AM
Response to Reply #5
16. These four voters are waiting in the wings ... ... ... . ....
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proudmoddemo Donating Member (288 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 12:27 AM
Response to Reply #3
9. "Undeclareds" are likely voters--it's New Hampshire's Term for Independents
And independents can vote in the Democratic Primary in New Hampshire. So any prudent poll would include independents. This one did, and since they're likely voters, Obama's ahead.
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AX10 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 12:20 AM
Response to Original message
6. Sad.
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MadBadger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 12:22 AM
Response to Reply #6
8. Whats so sad?
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Colobo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 01:27 AM
Response to Reply #8
17. AX is for Hillary.
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jgraz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 01:47 AM
Response to Reply #17
20. That IS sad.
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BringBigDogBack Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 12:39 AM
Response to Original message
11. Excellent news.
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question everything Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 12:57 AM
Response to Original message
12. How valid are these polls?
Do they just polls Democrats, Democrats and Independents, or Democrats and Independents who plan to vote in the Democratic primary?

And what if they will change their mind? For example, if Hillary wins Iowa and is perceived as the inevitable nominee, would they not decide that the Republican primary is more interesting, as happened in 2000?
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fightindonkey Donating Member (674 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 01:00 AM
Response to Reply #12
13. Obama Equals Losing
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MadBadger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 01:03 AM
Response to Reply #13
15. See, I was wondering why it said ignored instead of your name
Then I realized that it was me that ignored you. After this comment, I realize why I ignored you.
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jgraz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 01:46 AM
Response to Reply #15
19. I do believe I'll join you
Ignore is such a lovely feature.
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MadBadger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 01:00 AM
Response to Reply #12
14. They poll Likely voters.
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loveangelc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-14-07 01:31 AM
Response to Original message
18. But this is misleading because
you can never tell who a "likely" voter will be. Wouldn't registered voters be more accurate?
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