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Insider Advantage SC Poll: Obama 28, Clinton 22, Edwards 14

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BeyondGeography Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-10-07 03:44 PM
Original message
Insider Advantage SC Poll: Obama 28, Clinton 22, Edwards 14
Obama Extends Lead in South Carolina

Compiled from InsiderAdvantage and Southern Political Report staff reports


December 10, 2007 An InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion survey conducted December 8-9 of likely voters in South Carolinas presidential primary shows Barack Obama extending his lead over Hillary Clinton. The telephone survey of 480 likely voters in the primary was weighted for age, race, and gender. It has a margin of error of 4%

Q. If the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary were held today, would you vote for:

Obama: 28%
Clinton: 22%
Edwards: 14%
Biden: 10%
Richardson: 2%
Kucinich: 1%
Dodd: 0%
Gravel: 0%
Undecided: 23%

InsiderAdvantages Matt Towery: Obamas support among African-Americans rose a bit over the weekend, while Clintons dropped. This follows our poll of late last week in which there was a major shift in black voters towards Obama. Edwards lost a small amount, as this likely shifted to undecided.

However, Obamas white vote has not moved. Clearly the Oprah Winfrey visit to the state moved African-American voters. The issue now is whether Clinton can eat into some of Edwards support or reclaim some of her prior African-American support.

Added Lee Bandy of The State newspaper in Columbia, South Carolina, and of Insider Advantage: I believe these numbers are correct. There has been tremendous shift in the black vote since last week, when people realized that Oprah Winfrey was coming to South Carolina. This is the first political event Ive ever seen with 30,000 people and tailgaters.

http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_1210_7...
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MadBadger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-10-07 03:47 PM
Response to Original message
1. This is great news
GOBAMA!
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loveangelc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-10-07 03:48 PM
Response to Original message
2. who?
Edited on Mon Dec-10-07 03:48 PM by loveangelc
who will the undecideds break for in sc??? and in every other state? that is the question. do undecideds this late even vote?
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elizm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-10-07 06:34 PM
Response to Reply #2
21. Yes, they do. And the undecideds I know say they will go with the one who looks like the winner. n
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gateley Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-10-07 03:49 PM
Response to Original message
3. Biden still at 10% EXCELLENT! I LIKE this poll! nt
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Dawgs Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-10-07 03:51 PM
Response to Original message
4. Great News!!
K&R
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aquart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-10-07 03:53 PM
Response to Original message
5. The Oprah effect.
Is she holding rallies in all fifty states?

Interesting to see if this is a sustainable phenomenon. She got them to pay attention to him. Will they keep liking what they see?
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MadBadger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-10-07 08:19 PM
Response to Reply #5
23. Oprah didnt show up until the 9th. What about all those people surveyed on the 8th?
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Nedsdag Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-10-07 03:54 PM
Response to Original message
6. Oprah was right.
He IS the one!
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rinsd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-10-07 03:55 PM
Response to Original message
7. Is it me or does this poll undersample the black vote?
Edited on Mon Dec-10-07 03:55 PM by rinsd
Out of 480 LV surveyed, they ended up with 74 black voters.

In their previous poll last week it was 67 black people.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/InsiderAdvanta...

I assume they are then weighting responses.

But this struck me as odd since in SC anywhere from 40 to 50% of the primary voters are black.

Why not have polling demographics at least in that ballpark instead of having 70% of the interviewees as whites. :shrug:

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Adelante Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-10-07 05:56 PM
Response to Reply #7
13. I said the same thing on the other one
I don't think the results should be taken at face value unless somebody comes up with a good explanation for that under representation. It doesn't seem reasonable to me, either, rinsd.
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rinsd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-10-07 05:59 PM
Response to Reply #13
16. It just struck me as odd when I was reviewing the demographic data.
You would think that SC has a sizeable enough portion of black Democrats where they could get a sample from.

If not there, then where? :shrug:

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JackORoses Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-10-07 05:57 PM
Response to Reply #7
14. you realize that by that rationale Hillary is doing even worse, don't you
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rinsd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-10-07 06:11 PM
Response to Reply #14
18. Not neccessarily but that was not my point.
My point was under sampling a demographic that is traditionally difficult to follow in an area where that demographic is substantial in size seemed odd.
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jenmito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-10-07 06:31 PM
Response to Reply #18
20. According to the article, it does mean that:
"InsiderAdvantages Matt Towery: Obamas support among African-Americans rose a bit over the weekend, while Clintons dropped. This follows our poll of late last week in which there was a major shift in black voters towards Obama."

ibid
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jefferson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-10-07 03:55 PM
Response to Original message
8. Awesome.
No wonder the Obama-phobes have been in such a "tizzy" here these past few days.

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Hope And Change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-10-07 04:13 PM
Response to Original message
9. Wow!Thanks for posting this poll.
Obama 08!
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bluestateguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-10-07 04:18 PM
Response to Original message
10. Who the hell is Insider Advantage?
The number of polls in this campaign is absolutely out of control.
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elizm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-10-07 04:22 PM
Response to Reply #10
11. Here ya go...
.. Atlanta-based InsiderAdvantage's polls have been praised by national media ranging from CNNs Judy Woodruff to Fox Newss Bill OReilly, and have appeared in Knight-Ridder newspapers, The Washington Post, Washington Times, New York Post, Business Week, US News and World Report, and CBS News/CBS Marketwatch. Nationally syndicated columnist and InsiderAdvantage CEO Matt Towery is a recognized expert on political, legislative and governmental affairs.

http://www.insidersc.com/
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Major Hogwash Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-10-07 05:52 PM
Response to Original message
12. Wow, that's weird, the media is saying that Clinton still has a 10 point lead in SC.
At least that is what Blitzer said on CNN just today.
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JackORoses Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-10-07 05:58 PM
Response to Reply #12
15. that's a 10 point National lead
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ClarkUSA Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-10-07 06:04 PM
Response to Reply #12
17. That may have been a poll taken before the Oprah event...
This poll refers to a bump. Lee Bandy is widely considered the dean of SC political reporting - he's a liberal to boot - and his approving
comments gives this poll data more credibility.
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TeamJordan23 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-10-07 06:18 PM
Response to Original message
19. Oprah or not, all I know Obama is surging in SC. nm
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Zueda Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-10-07 08:18 PM
Response to Original message
22. Now we see...
Edited on Mon Dec-10-07 08:22 PM by Zueda
why all the Hillbots were getting all wild-eyed this weekend.

disclaimer: if you are a Hillary supporter who was not wild-eyed this weekend then the term 'hillbots' does not refer to you.
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