Iowa State University poll: Clinton 31, Edwards 24, Obama 20

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

It is worth noting that the poll was taken Nov. 6-18 but released just today. (I doubt Romney is first or Obama is third today)

Clinton, Romney top choices among likely Iowa caucus goers in new ISU poll

AMES, Iowa -- With exactly one month to go until the Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses, a new Iowa State University Poll of 1,416 registered Iowa voters finds Hillary Clinton leading among likely Democratic caucus attendees, while Mitt Romney has a slim lead over Mike Huckabee among Republican caucus-goers.

Clinton (30.8 percent) is more than six percentage points ahead of John Edwards (24.4 percent) and more than 10 percentage points ahead of Barack Obama (20.2 percent) in the Democratic race. Nearly six percent of Democratic respondents don't know who their top choice will be.

Hillary Clinton30.8%
John Edwards 24.4%
Barack Obama 20.2%
Bill Richardson 11.4%
Joe Biden 3.9%
Dennis Kucinich 1.1%
Christopher Dodd 0.6%
Refused to say 1.6%
Don't Know 5.9%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/ISU_poll_dec_03.html

[cali]

1. I don't trust any of the Iowa polls

they're contradicting one another too often.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

11. They all rely on their likely caucus goer models, so they are bound to be

all over the place.

Even polls taken the day before the caucus will be off... no way around it.

But in light of the recent extrapolations that Obama would be at 100% and Clinton would be at 0% within a week, it's a comical poll result.

[FatDave]

35. I think it's nearly impossible to poll the Iowa caucuses

There's way too many variables. Second choices, "likely" caucus-goers, and so on.

[Superman Returns]

2. nice try

that's a 6 point margin of error.

[Colobo]

5. Ah... I see...

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

6. Since you have this info, please post the link. Thanks.

[wyldwolf]

uh... the others Obama supportes have been crowing about have had 4 pt. MOEs

:shrug:

[Skip Intro]

3. guess a baloon full of hot air can only stay afloat for so long...

[Colobo]

4. He didn't fall in one day. It's a poll that has Clinton ahead and

it has the same validity as the Des Moines Register poll, if not less.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

8. It is one poll of many

[ilovesunshine]

7. It's wrong only if Hillary is ahead...

Right?

[BootinUp]

21. That is correct.

lol.

[Maven]

34. ...

:rofl:

[SaveElmer]

9. As glad as I am that Hillary may be ahead...

I really, really do not want to see Edwards making a move...would rather have him in third

[maddezmom]

10. link I think here

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22080707/

~snip~

The AP-Pew poll shows:

—Clinton essentially tied with Obama in Iowa, 31 percent to 26 percent, with Edwards at 19 percent and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson at 10 percent.

—In New Hampshire Clinton 38 percent, Obama 19 percent, Edwards 15 percent, Richardson 10 percent.

—In South Carolina Clinton 45 percent, Obama 31 percent, Edwards 10 percent.

more:

:hi:

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

12. that's a different one (AP), but thank you.

[Alamom]

13. k&r

[jefferson_dem]

14. Stale data. Some cases nearly a month old and no polling in the past 1.5 weeks.

Sorry.

The telephone survey involved interviews conducted from Nov. 7-25 with 460 likely Democratic voters in Iowa, with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 5.5 points. Also interviewed were 594 likely Democratic voters in New Hampshire, with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 5 points, and 373 likely Democratic voters in South Carolina, with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 6 points.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

18. Not the same poll, but thanks

[jefferson_dem]

22. Ok.

I was assuming it was the one linked to above.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22080707/page/2/

[dmallind]

19. differnt poll

you are talking about the AP one. I suppose it's possible both had the exact same methodology and count but I doubt it and will wait for a link.

[dmallind]

15. I'll be consistent yet again

Unless there is consistant movement outside MOEs ALL these polls, regardless of who is in the lead, reflect only closeness and variation. This is no more nor no less reliable absent any evidence of bad methodology than polls which show Obama leading inside MOE. It doesn't even mean the polls are contradicting each other. Variation within MOEs is normal and expected.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

16. Since some Obama supporters here clearly have the link, could one fo you provide it? Thanks.

I don't have the link, but the poster who dismissed the poll based on MoE obviously does... please share.

[Mass]

17. Hopefully, this will calm the nastiness of some Hillary supporters...

Links please, and dates of the poll. The AP Pew poll, for example, is already 9 days old. and some of the sample was polled nearly one month ago...

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

20. I have googled around and I can't find a link... it may not be released yet

Someone from Iowa State announced it on MSNBC as released this morning, but I can't find a press release yet.

Any help is appreciated.

[jenmito]

23. Sorry to rain on your parade, but Chuck Todd just said that poll was taken BEFORE the latest Iowa

Register poll. :hi:

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

24. He also said the Demoines Register poll was more reliable, which is not being disputed

One poll result is not a "parade" It is what it is.

Each is a data point.

Polls are best considered in the aggregate.

[jenmito]

25. That's right. So Obama's stiill ahead. His numbers didn't fall at all.

This "new" less reliable poll shouldn't be taken seriously as the newest Demoines Register which was taken AFTER the poll in your OP.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

26. Link added to OP. Still awaiting link to full results. Please post if you have it.

[jenmito]

27. Chuck Todd said that poll was taken before the Desmoines Register poll.

Just to clarify that your OP says Obama fell in the newest poll. Not true. In the NEWEST poll, Obama is WINNING and his numbers rose.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

28. We will await the released data and methodology

[Mass]

29. Given the MOE, it is a three way tie, same as the other ones.

[Mass]

30. So, this poll is more than 2 weeks old as well. Good to know.

[HughMoran]

31. Glad it's a close race!!

Anybody who reads much more than that into these polls of "likely" caucus goers is not thinking clearly.

[drbob99]

32. This is ancient data! Alot has happened since then. It even shows Romney still leading.

Wow, your Hillary lovers are really desperate for some good news! Sorry, but I think it is going just to get even worse, much worse. Reports out there that the Hillary campaign has some recent internal numbers that show her in free fall in Iowa and elsewhere and that's why they in crisis attack mode.

[Catherine Vincent]

36. "Sorry, but I think it is going just to get even worse, much worse."

I am sure that is what you are hoping.

[ananda]

33. Go Edwards!

nt