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AP-Pew poll: Clinton, strong on key issues, has edge in early contests but Iowa is a worry

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ccpup Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-03-07 09:24 AM
Original message
AP-Pew poll: Clinton, strong on key issues, has edge in early contests but Iowa is a worry
Health care and Iraq dominate Democrats' concerns in the three pivotal early voting states of the 2008 presidential race. Advantage: Hillary Rodham Clinton, a poll shows.

Clinton has clear leads in New Hampshire and South Carolina, building on her ownership of the health-care issue and her broad but more fragile trust among Democrats on Iraq, the survey showed Monday. Yet she could stumble in Iowa, whose Jan. 3 caucuses will be the first voting and where she is in a scramble with Barack Obama, trailed closely by John Edwards.

An extensive poll in the three states by The Associated Press and the nonpartisan Pew Research Center finds Democrats enthusiastic about their overall presidential field. Most rate it strongly, and they spiritedly back the contenders they prefer.

The poll shows Clinton's advantages in the early contests stretch beyond the top issues. The New York senator has amassed strong support among crucial groups including female, older, less-educated and lower-income Democrats significant because women and older voters in particular have dominated these primaries and caucuses in the past. In Iowa though, she has only a modest lead over Obama among women.

-- snip --

I've offered the first four paragraphs of what I found to be an interesting, balanced article.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/mochila.php?articleId=1081...
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saltpoint Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-03-07 09:28 AM
Response to Original message
1. I personally believe her lead nationally is something any candidate would
prefer to have.

Not having it, her opponents are relaying on an italicized grassroots organization, and are getting it, and it's paying dividends.

Edwards, Obama, and Biden will place ahead of HClinton in Iowa.
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ccpup Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-03-07 09:33 AM
Response to Reply #1
3. with Iowa officially up-for-grabs
I'm not convinced Hillary will win, but she may place ahead of the three you mentioned. I still think the other candidates have ground to make up in NH and SC, not to mention the biggies like New York and California. It'll be a brutal Primary Season regardless of the outcome.
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saltpoint Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-03-07 09:35 AM
Response to Reply #3
5. Probably so. I wish we had a valid media to cover it, is all.
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cali Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-03-07 09:38 AM
Response to Reply #1
6. I haven't a clue who will win in Iowa but I do think the top
top three will be Obama, Clinton and Edwards. I don't see any reason to believe that Biden has the strenghth to move into third.
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Sparkly Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-03-07 09:32 AM
Response to Original message
2. Iowa really looks like a toss-up, doesn't it?
Especially considering the caucus process. Really impossible to predict.
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Stop Cornyn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-03-07 09:34 AM
Response to Original message
4. Most of this is based on pre-Thanksgiving data. Pew does great polls but its analysis is so in depth
Edited on Mon Dec-03-07 09:40 AM by Stop Cornyn
that the data is sometimes old by the time the report comes out.

With Hillary in free-fall, I'm not sure data collected as much as four weeks ago is completely relevant today.
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cali Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-03-07 09:40 AM
Response to Reply #4
7. i think that's wishful thinking on your part. There's no indication
that Clinton is in free fall. The race appears to be tightening up, but if you actually think she's out of it, you're projecting.
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Stop Cornyn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-03-07 10:01 AM
Response to Reply #7
11. Let's look at Hillary's Iowa polls since this data was collected starting Nov. 7:
Hillary (oldest date for beginning of data collection at top to newest at bottom):

31% (11/07) - AP/Pew
29% (11/23) - SV
25% (11/25) - DMR
25% (11/26) - ARG
24% (11/27) - R


Obama:

26% (11/07) - AP/Pew
29% (11/23) - SV
28% (11/25) - DMR
27% (11/26) - ARG
25% (11/27) - R


Edwards:

19% (11/07) - AP/Pew
23% (11/23) - SV
23% (11/25) - DMR
23% (11/26) - ARG
24% (11/27) - R


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Kurt_and_Hunter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-03-07 09:41 AM
Response to Reply #4
8. You are correct. This poll was conducted during the worst of Hillary's terrible press.
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drbob99 Donating Member (60 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-03-07 09:55 AM
Response to Original message
9. Meaningless stale data - polls conducted Nov. 7-25
Alot has happened since those polls were conducted. The most current relevant and considered most accurate poll is the Des Moines Reg poll released Sunday -- conducted Nov. 25-28.
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Kurt_and_Hunter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-03-07 09:56 AM
Response to Reply #9
10. You are correct. This poll was conducted during Hillary's worst period of bad press.
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drbob99 Donating Member (60 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-03-07 10:04 AM
Response to Reply #10
12. I beg to differ. The last several days have been her worst and looks to be getting worser!
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drbob99 Donating Member (60 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-03-07 10:13 AM
Response to Reply #10
13. ... and we haven't even seen the Oprah effect!
Looks really bad for Clintonia.
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