Would like to discuss Edwards recent poll numbers.

[Le Taz Hot]

I was really surprised to see Edwards currently polling at only 12% in South Carolina compared to Clinton's 45%, which was a double surprise. My probably way over-simplistic impression was that the South usually prefers native Southerners over Northerners transplanted to the South via marriage. The poll numbers obviously prove I'm wrong.

Can someone make an attempt at an explanation? (Please note: I have no dog in this fight as I don't support any of the top 3 candidates. It's just an academic interest.)


http://americanresearchgroup.com/

[liskddksil]

1. Unlike for Iowa and New Hampshire

I think it is still early, with voters there not quite in tune, as their primary is a bit later than the first two. Therefore Senator Clinton's name recognition might be affected the polls there.

[ccpup]

2. I also think, too,

that, although Edwards may be a Southerner, with Hillary's latest endorsements, organization in the State, conversations with voters and them seeing her not as the right-wing orchestrated shrew of the 1990s but as a polite, intelligent woman who doesn't eat babies, there may be voters changing their minds.

I also suspect many in SC don't think Edwards can seriously get the Nod, so they're backing someone they presently believe has a good shot.

A lot can change overnight, though.

[phyllisg4jre]

3. Jon Edwards Polls

I also believe that John is doing better in the polls in Iowa
and the Early states as that is were he is campaining the most
at present. There, in Iowa he is tied neck in neck with
Clinton and Obama.:):) 

[durrrty libby]

5. He's been campaigning in Iowa for 4 frigin years. If he was

any good, he'd be running away with Iowa

[Stop Cornyn]

11. Hillary's and Obama's campiagns in Iowa have spent $8 frigin million. If they were any good, they'd

be running away with Iowa.

Edwards has run a populist grassroots campaign in Iowa; Hillary and Obama have spent less time with the grassroots but they have spent way more money. I guess Iowa will be a referendum on whether money or grassroots have more sway in Iowa.

[Adelante]

4. I haven't been able to figure it out

Obviously the large black vote split between Clinton and Obama says something about Edwards' problem, but Hillary's taking him out on the white vote, too. South Carolina is the only primary he won in 2004, and it is his native state, although he didn't bring it in for the GE. In one recent poll I read that 80% of South Carolinians believe the VP choice on the ticket means a lot in how they vote, which I found interesting. Edwards seems to have a complicated standing in his native state, currently not to his benefit, but partly it could be that he has so concentrated on Iowa, SC voters have lost sight of him.

[Le Taz Hot]

15. Now there's an interesting

perspective re the SC African-American vote. I hadn't thought of that but it makes sense. Obama would get a significant portion of the SC African-American voting bloc for obvious reasons and perhaps Hillary because of the sentiment I've heard among so many African-Americans that Bill was the first Black president. Yeah, Edwards would be coming up the rear on that one.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. Because Johnny's Only Polling At 3% or So Among African Americans In A State Where 50% Or So Of

The State's African American Voters Are African American...

[jsamuel]

7. ARG is a strange polling group. Their polls almost always show Clinton further ahead

than any other poll.

Here is another poll just released for South Carolina:
South Carolina
Democrats: August November percent Change
1. Hillary Clinton 26 percent 19 percent -7 percent
2. Barack Obama 16 percent 17 percent +1 percent
3. John Edwards 10 percent 12 percent +2 percent

John Edwards moves from behind by 16 points to behind by 7 in South Carolina.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/newNovember_Palmetto_Poll-3.html

[Stop Cornyn]

8. The South Carolina polls have basically followed the national polling trends because the campiagns

aren't really full force in South Carolina yet.

Compare how the candidates are doing in the meaningless national polls with how they are doing in South Carolina. The trends in national polls parallel the trends in South Carolina. The will continue to do so until the campaigns focus full attention on South Carolina, which will be in the first week of January.

[underpants]

9. He is getting very little coverage nationally

I don't know what he is doing specifically in regards to ad in SC and in what part. That being said Edwards is at 12% with almost no coverage (until the last few days) Hillary and her name is everywhere so it isn't a surprise that she is polling well.

If Edwards is in for the long run he will do fine. I think Hillary tried to put this thing over too soon. She set herself up as the frontrunner and therefore the biggest target. The Repubs have added to this by starting a national campaign against her.

[MethuenProgressive]

10. Edwards was picked as Kerry's running mate to deliver the South - and didn't.

The South has already spoken on John Edwards.

[Stop Cornyn]

12. Edwards was picked to raise campaign money, and he kicked ass at it.

[MethuenProgressive]

13. Back when taking $ from Washington lobbyists wasn't a sin?

He couldn't even deliver his own state - what a complete waste of the VP slot he was.

[Stop Cornyn]

14. Since the topic appears not to matter, let's continue this discussion over in this thread:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=3755028&mesg_id=3755028

[MethuenProgressive]

16. The topic is surprise at how bad his poll numbers in the South are.

Do you have any input as to why the people who know him best have rejected his message?

[zalinda]

17. The Kerry team only ran one campaign ad in the

Carolinas, and didn't run any in the other red states. They figured why bother, red won't vote blue. They concentrated their time on purple states, and critical blue states.

zalinda

[MethuenProgressive]

18. Perhaps because they thought his home turf was a lock, Zalinda?

I didn't know we only ran one ad down there. Thanks for the info.

[zalinda]

21. This is one of the reasons that Dean started his 50

state strategy. A number of those red states had dem governors, so they do vote blue.

We have to remember that not all of the people who vote even know who's running. Go out to the street and ask who their Senator is and half the people won't know, maybe more. Ask who their Congress person is and it will be even less who know. That is our voting population. People have been dumbed down to such an extent that they don't even pay attention to who or what they are voting for, if they show up to vote.

zalinda

[mtnsnake]

20. "He couldn't even deliver his own state - what a complete waste of the VP slot he was"

He was supposed to be the "charisma" half of the ticket and he couldn't even deliver on that. When you're not only out-debated by Cheney, but also out-charmed by him, you really know what a total flop Edwards was. No wonder Kerry can't stand him.

[rinsd]

19. Some 40 to 50% of Dem primary voters in SC are African American

Hillary and Obama split that vote taking all of it practically.

Hillary then kills with women while Obama holds his own amongst whites not leaving much left for Edwards.