ARG Pollout this Morning Obama Takes lead....Hillary Losing support

[Perky]

Iowa
Likely Democratic Caucus Goers Nov 10-14 Nov 26-29

Biden 5% 8%
Clinton 27% 25%
Dodd 3% 3%
Edwards 20% 23%
Gravel - -
Kucinich 2% 2%
Obama 21% 27%
Richardson 12% 4%
Undecided 10% 8%

33% of likely caucus participants are undecided (8%) or say that they could switch candidates between now and January 3 (25%).
80% of those saying they support Clinton say their support is definite.
57% of those saying they support Edwards say their support is definite.
75% of those saying they support Obama say their support is definite.
Among men, Clinton is at 22%, Edwards 22%, and Obama 30%.
Among women, Clinton is at 28%, Edwards 24%, and Obama 25%.


Iowa
Likely Democratic Caucus Goers Dec 06 Jan 07 Feb 07 Mar 07 Apr 07 May 07 Jun 07 Jul 07 Aug 07 Sep 07 Oct 07

Biden 2% 2% 2% 2% 6% 3% 2% 3% 1% 3% 5%
Clark 1% 2% 1% 2% - 1% 1% - ni ni ni
Clinton 31% 35% 31% 34% 23% 31% 32% 30% 28% 30% 32% and now 27% and 25%
Dodd 2% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 2%
Edwards 20% 18% 27% 33% 27% 25% 29% 21% 20% 19% 15%
Gravel 1% - - - - 1% 1% - - - -
Kerry 2% ni ni ni ni ni ni ni ni ni ni
Kucinich 5% 2% 1% 1% 2% 4% 1% 2% 3% 1% 1%
Obama 10% 14% 23% 16% 19% 11% 13% 15% 23% 24% 22% and now 21% and 27%
Richardson 1% 1% 1% 1% 5% 8% 5% 13% 13% 10% 7%
Vilsack 17% 12% ni ni ni ni ni ni ni ni ni
Undecided 8% 13% 14% 10% 16% 14% 14% 15% 11% 13% 16%

LOok at the trends folks
http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres08/iadem8-713.html

[tired_old_fireman]

1. Wow.

Those trends look good for Obama.

[ClarkUSA]

50. This is the second poll in as many weeks that show Obama leading with Hillary falling back.

Good stuff.

[Evergreen Emerald]

2. why wouldn't she be loosing support? Have you seen the media

blitz of negative stories about her? Compare that to the positive stories about Obama, and you have--again--the propaganda machine choosing our candidates for us.




http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x3765672

[Tejanocrat]

51. Oh my God! Who, I mean ?WHO? could have predicted that it was dangerous to peak too early in Iowa???

[Imagevision]

57. Hillary peaking early? shucks! I believe Obama was rope a doping to

pass by a few months, Oprah joining the cause should be good! yesss!

[ccpup]

3. not so good for Obama

in NH and SC.

From the same poll:

NH: Clinton 34, Obama 23, Edwards 17
SC: Clinton 45, Obama 21, Edwards 12

[jefferson_dem]

6. You mean the NH poll that shows Hillary losing six points and Obama gaining?

:shrug:

[ccpup]

12. and a remaining 11 point spread?

yeah, that poll

[Perky]

20. A lot can happen in a month,

Particulary if Obama has Momentum coming out of Iowa.

[ccpup]

25. Obama will win Iowa

and perhaps NH. Hillary will rack up the major States (CA, NY, etc.) on Super-Duper Tuesday. January is good for Obama; February is even better for Hillary.

[Perky]

34. We will chat again on 2/6

:)

[Perky]

7. Winning IA closes the Gap in both states.

I would not expect him to overtake Hillary in New Hampshisre

But Edwards will appear as an also ran afte the first trwo tilts and I suspect (theory on my part) the African AMerican support in SC which is currently evenly split will move heavily for Obama. That combined with Edwars supporters looking elsewhere ought to be enough.

Then comes super tuesday and it becomes a crap shoot.

[SaveElmer]

4. Why is the MSM trying to shove Obama down our throats...

Obama...bought and paid for by the corporate media...

[jefferson_dem]

5. Submit, SaveElmer...

Resistance is Futile!

[SaveElmer]

10. I mean c'mon...

Nothing but positive coverage...and do you think it is a coincidence that Obama is having Breakfast with Michael Blomberg today...a media mogul...

Completely rigged...and what 500 people polled...

I've never been polled...and I have not met ONE SINGLE Obama supporter....

Completely bogus...I don't believe it!!!

[Perky]

14. Funny but I have never met a single Hillary supporter

You may be on to something.

[Czolgosz]

19. I think the right wing moron on The View might be leaning toward Hillary. Go meet her.

[emilyg]

39. Want to meet me? Go Clinton.

[Dawgs]

16. Why do you have a problem with positive coverage for a Democrat?

[SaveElmer]

29. He's not a "real" Democrat...

He's a corporate stooge...taking orders from master Bloomberg...propped up by polls bought and paid for by these very masters...

What I want to know is...what did Obama promise them for the positive coverage?

[ginchinchili]

33. I don't think a Clinton supporter is in much of a position to call an Obama supporter...

a corporate stooge, considering that she has the pleasure of bathing in a sea of campaign cash, and it didn't all come in from the little people.

[SaveElmer]

35. Well we see now that Obama is the real choice of "corporate" america don't we...

Do you really think his little "friendly breakfast" with Bloomberg this morning was anything other than a strategy session...

Get real.... I have never once met anyone that supported Obama... these polls showing Obama leading are clearly innaccurate as my personal circle of acquaintances constitute a more accurate reading of the electorate

[ccpup]

45. ooooooo boy!

:rofl: This is gettin' good!

Switch "Obama" with "Hillary" and you've got the Standard Obama Supporter Defense/Reply/Excuse!

[Odin2005]

54. Personal anectdotes don't mean shit.

That you have met no Obama supporters says more about you and your acquaintances then anything else.

[ClarkUSA]

48. No, a corporate stooge is Clinton, who's received more lobbyist $$ than any candidate, GOP or Dem.

And wasn't she on the cover of Fortune magazine with the title, "Business Loves Hillary"?

[Odin2005]

53. Pot, meet kettle; kettle, pot. n/t.

[ccpup]

18. oh SaveElmer

:rofl: how fun is it to throw their words -- shouted from the rooftops over the last several months -- right back at 'em.

And I, truly, haven't met one Obama supporter. I don't believe these corporate-owned and operated Polls for a minute! :evilgrin:

[Tellurian]

43. When I ask if anyone is supporting Obama..They say, "WHOs He?"

sorry..Hillary has great name recognition!

[Odin2005]

52. That must be one tight bubble you are in if you don't know any Obama supporters, LOL

I'm a college student and us Obama supporters are everywhere on campus.

[Czolgosz]

15. LOL! Are you guys starting the "Obama is Inevitable" mantra? If so, can we call you Obamabots?

[Perky]

9. Its polling data from real voters in Iowa (????)

Besides the media previously tapped HRC as inevitable

[SaveElmer]

30. Obama is clearly bought and paid for by the MSM...

Why do you think he had brakfast this morning with Michael Blomberg...planning their strategy no doubt...

[gmudem]

41. Were they wearing tin foil hats at their breakfast?

It's funny because Bloomberg is somebody who is able to govern independently precisely because he DOES NOT need corporate cash, which is the polar opposite of Hillary who gets even more corporate cash than Republicans.

[SaveElmer]

42. Open your eyes my friend...Bloomberg is just another corporate whore...

And Obama is suckling at his teat...

[Dawgs]

13. Do you care to give any examples of that?

Cause, I can give many showing Hillary as the inevitable, experienced, perfect campaigner from just a few months ago.

[jefferson_dem]

17. I suspect the poster is offering these tidbits with tongue firmly planted in cheek...

:hi:

[SaveElmer]

37. No I'm not...I'm Series...this is Hugh!!!

[SaveElmer]

31. Uh...what do you think that Bloomberg breakfast was all about...

A friendly get together? :rofl:

Please, Obama is clearly in the pay of the corporate media and they were planning strategy...

[Perky]

38. Ok then what about Hillary Meeting with Rupert Murduch?

Please Bloomber is also Mary of the Largest city in America and his endorsement would be valuble both on the Hillsry from and on the Rudy front,

[mtnsnake]

26. How soon everyone forgets, eh, my friend?

Funny how when the shoe is on the other foot, the corporate media has nothing to do with it. ;)

[SaveElmer]

32. Right over their heads...nt

[superkia]

44. They need to keep it close like in the past.

Don't worry, if they push Obama too much, you will then hear them mentioning Edwards more so they can keep it close between Obabma and Clinton. When they give it to Clinton, they don't want too much grumbling and it wouldn't look right if Obama was way ahead and she won. After that, they will do their best to push whoever they need in order to keep the race close between Clinton and Giuliani and then they can give it to Giuliani if they choose, without an American uproar. They are doing the same thing on the republican side, whenever Giuliani or Romney look too good in their polls, the media starts with the republican version of our Edwards and they throw coverage to Huckabee. Their goal is to keep the numbers that they show the American public, close. That way the election can be stolen and given to whoever the elite want.

After Clinton showed more of who she is in that one debate, if the media continued to shove her down our throats, the American people would realize that the media is covering who they want, not who the public wants. Don't get all worried that YOUR candidate in these polls, she has already been chosen, you only have to worry about the GE.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

8. Undecided is also a notable mover... that number is supposed to go down, not up!

Undecided 8% 13% 14% 10% 16% 14% 14% 15% 11% 13% 16%


(Is undecided peaking too soon?)

[Czolgosz]

11. Looks like Biden is well on his way to replace Richardson as the official "2nd tier guy with foreign

policy experience" most likely to win among 2nd tier candidates.

[ccpup]

21. it might be interesting

to see how many Iowa politicians benefited from Obama's PAC money.

[Perky]

23. I'd be careful there....

look at how Hillary built her support in SC among black leadership.

[ccpup]

24. Obama is the only one

continuing to give donations from his PAC. Everyone else closed theirs down when they announced.

"Obama's Hopefund Inc. distributed more than $180,000 in donations to political groups and candidates in the early presidential voting states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina and more than $150,000 to federal candidates in other states with primary dates through mid-February. The donations accounted for nearly three-quarters of the money the PAC has given out since this summer."

"Obama stopped raising money for Hopefund when he announced his presidential bid in January, but he has stood out from some of his rivals by continuing to make donations from Hopefund as the primaries approach. Most other presidential candidates shuttered their PACs"

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/11/29/AR2007112902229.html?hpid=topnews

[Perky]

36. HRC bought SC black leadership by giving them in-state Public relations contracts

after they endorsed her.

[yellowcanine]

22. Looks like a 3 way dead heat with MOE and undecided figured in.

Obama - Clinton - Edwards

Also I wonder about these results. There was a report on Richardson on NPR this morning and it sounded like he was making a lot of headway among rural Iowa folks - he had been to nearly every county and was getting a lot of positive feedback. So for him to drop from 12% to 4% in two weeks seems dubious. Did they just poll in the cities?

[ccpup]

27. interesting question

the problem, in my view, about Polls is we don't really know who they were talking to. There may be a big difference between city-folk and those who live elsewhere as far as information they receive, attention paid to the race, the candidates, etc. Very recent positive -- or negative -- coverage splashed across the news can lead them to say "A" and not "B" but, come election day months from now, they may have learned more about "A" and have decided on "B".

Who knows?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

28. Gawd

We folks need to be more vigilant... The Rasmussen poll, taken at the same time has Biden's and Richardson's numbers flipped...

[AtomicKitten]

40. Obama will ride this trend to victory.

[saltpoint]

46. A word on Biden.

He appears to be at c. 8%.

He was most certainly not at c. 8% in August or September.

He appears to be now.

That suggests to me a very discernible rise in the polls.

Obama and Edwards are also up. Senator Clinton down some.

It's gettin' real interestin' out there.

[Tejanocrat]

55. There can be no question about it: Biden has swapped places with Richardson as "the guy with foreign

policy experience who has a pretty lame domestic agenda."

God bless Biden, because I like him (marginally) more than Richardson (because Biden is better than Richardson on NRA, "free" trade, and capital punishment issues although Richardson is better on reproductive rights and bankruptcy protections).

[saltpoint]

58. Hi, Tejanocrat. A friend of mine is hogwild about a Biden-Richardson ticket.

He thinks those two would sweep a huge electoral college win.

I look at that electoral map, and I can see why he would say that.

Agree with you that both men have strengths, although their strengths differ more in nature than in amount. I surely like them as problem-solvers.

[illinoisprogressive]

47. hillary's sliding faster than I thought.

[ClarkUSA]

49. Hillary better hold yet another NH press conference and arrange another "feel your pain" photo-op

That's all she's got.

[farmboy]

56. Edwards:...and now 20% and 23%. He's gained more points than even Obama since Oct. 7. Go John!