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New Strat Vis Poll Proves Obama Iowa Surge is real

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Perky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-28-07 11:19 AM
Original message
New Strat Vis Poll Proves Obama Iowa Surge is real
Edited on Wed Nov-28-07 11:40 AM by Perky
We have a Tie.

http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/iowa_poll_1128...


5. If the 2008 Democratic presidential caucus were held today between, Joeseph Biden, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama, and Bill Richardson, for whom would you vote? (Democrats Only; Names Rotated)
Hillary Clinton 29%
Barack Obama 29%
John Edwards 23%
Bill Richardson 6%
Joseph Biden 4%
Chris Dodd 1%
Dennis Kucinich 1%
Undecided 7%

two weeks ago

5. If the 2008 Democratic presidential caucus were held today between, Joeseph Biden, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama, and Bill Richardson, for whom would you vote? (Democrats Only; Names Rotated)
Hillary Clinton 29%
Barack Obama 27%
John Edwards 20%
Bill Richardson 7%
Joseph Biden 5%
Chris Dodd 1%
Dennis Kucinich 1%
Undecided 10%



And the Poll before that

5. If the 2008 Democratic presidential caucus were held today between, Joeseph Biden, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama, and Bill Richardson, for whom would you vote? (Democrats Only; Names Rotated)
Hillary Clinton 28%
Barack Obama 23%
John Edwards 20%
Bill Richardson 9%
Joseph Biden 6%
Chris Dodd 1%
Dennis Kucinich 1%
Undecided 12%

Thisproves the point I made earlier.... Undecided break late for the non-incumbent/non instituional candidate.
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suston96 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-28-07 11:27 AM
Response to Original message
1. And the rest of the story......
From that StrategicVision poll site:

7. When making your selection for a presidential candidate, what are you looking for most in the candidate, charisma, experience, or ideology? (Democrats Only)

Experience 34%
Ideology 28%
Charisma 25%
Undecided 13%

Also, from the previous poll by Strategicvision Hillary went up a point to 29 and Obama did "surge" from 23.
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Perky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-28-07 11:37 AM
Response to Reply #1
2. Intersting trend
Current Poll

7. When making your selection for a presidential candidate, what are you looking for most in the candidate, charisma, experience, or ideology? (Democrats Only)

Experience 34%
Ideology 28%
Charisma 25%
Undecided 13%

Previous Poll Two weeks ago

7. When making your selection for a presidential candidate, what are you looking for most in the candidate, charisma, experience, or ideology? (Democrats Only)
Experience 37%
Ideology 26%
Charisma 23%
Undecided 14%

And the one before that

7. When making your selection for a presidential candidate, what are you looking for most in the candidate, charisma, experience, or ideology? (Democrats Only)
Experience 34%
Ideology 28%
Charisma 25%
Undecided 13%
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Alexander Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-28-07 01:15 PM
Response to Reply #1
6. Ideology and charisma add up to over 50%.
Not good for Hillary, since her only attribute is her supposed "experience".
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zulchzulu Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-28-07 11:48 AM
Response to Original message
3. The key thing about Iowa is having caucus voters who WILL caucus
I've been to Iowa and have done phone banking there and the main purpose of any efforts there is to make sure that not only does someone support your candidate but also want to go out on a cold caucus night for several hours to actually caucus.

There are plenty of people in Iowa who may support a candidate...but it doesn't make any difference if they are not prepared to go to the caucus.

It's all about the ground game as well as who the second choice of caucus voters is due to some candidates not having the 15% viability.

Undecided is running a strong third place in most of the polls posted. That's huge.
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Perky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-28-07 01:08 PM
Response to Reply #3
5. That's very insightful
It would seem to suggest that those who first choice come in a caucus at less than 15% willl break heavily for Obama.


How does that work every one goes to a corner of a room based on initial candidate preference at a caucus site, they then do the math and tell the non 15% to go to their second choice?


I thought the 15% rule was that a candidate only got delegates coming out of delegates if they cross that threshold statewide. Everyone's votes stays the same, they just recompuyte the delegate distribution based on the 15%ers,



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dmallind Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-28-07 11:48 AM
Response to Original message
4. If you look at MOE it's been a tie for some time NT
kk;
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