Will Joe Biden finish in the top three in Iowa?

[PresidentObama]

Watching him on C-Span in Iowa, and god damn he sounds impressive.

He's sounding and looking very Presidential!!

I think he could surprise us all.....

I think it might just be Barack Obama, John Edwards, and Joe Biden in the top three in Iowa. Hillary a close fourth.

[AtomicKitten]

1. Anything is possible.

It's going to be an E ticket ride!

[PresidentObama]

2. I think Iowa is going to be very interesting.

[1corona4u]

3. I think he will surprise....n/t

[davidinalameda]

4. the answer is no

Obama, Hillary and Edwards will be the top three

Biden won't last past New Hampshire

[PresidentObama]

5. Why do you say that?

[davidinalameda]

10. he's an afterthought in the polls

he hasn't been able to get in the top five let alone top three

Richardson has a better shot at making the top three

[1corona4u]

11. Polls are never right...I completely ignore them, and

personally, I pay more attention to Iowa blogs, papers, etc. It's just a better indicator of where people's minds are at.

My prediction; Joe will be a almost tied for 3rd.

[davidinalameda]

12. maybe so

but unless he gets what 15% in the caucauses, he's toast

[IA_Seth]

35. Major Over-Simplification on your part...

If a candidate, like Joe Biden, fails to get 15% in the first alignment period his supporters can either go to another candidate during the re-alignment period, or consider themselves 'undecided'. By that same token, other candidate's supporters can do the very same thing.. which could make a previously non-viable Biden able to get to 15%.

Also, many Iowans who actually understand the caucus process will caucus for a candidate that is not their first choice, if their support will allow a candidate that is close to 15% remain viable. This will prevent those potentially non-viable candidate's supporters from supporting another candidate.

Point is, the polls really don't mean a lot. First of all, it doesn't matter how the public feels if they don't show up for the caucus. Secondly, caucus strategy can lead to a lesser-known candidate becoming a consensus candidate and gaining a LOT more support than is indicated in the polls.

[Debi]

44. You rock Seth

[IA_Seth]

48. Thanks!

Although I got all excited thinking perhaps I could preach about the caucus some more..

[Debi]

49. Yeah, what are all us Iowans gonna do come January 4th?

At the event last night Biden asked all those who had previously attended a caucus to raise their hands...I swear 90% of the hands in the room went up! We're all such a knowledgeable group of folks aren't we?

[davidinalameda]

50. thanks for clarifying that

I didn't know that candidates that don't get 15% in the first round can come back

my posts aren't a slam on Biden but just my observations

[IA_Seth]

51. Thanks for giving me the opportunity to clarify that!

I didn't mean to imply your simplification was intentional, believe me, your understanding that there is even a 15% threshold is leaps and bounds above others here... I just wanted to make sure everyone discussing the possibilities truly understood the process!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

31. Polls are never right

http://www.surveyusa.com/Scorecards/SUSA2006ElectionRep...


http://www.surveyusa.com/Scorecards/Scorecard2004AllGen...

[Blue_In_AK]

6. Sorry state of affairs

when the rest of us are presumed cancelled out by whatever happens in Iowa and New Hampshire. For that reason, I hope Biden kicks ass.

[1corona4u]

9. I'll just bookmark this page now...

[frogmarch]

7. No idea, but

I really do like Joe Biden. Always have.

[napi21]

8. I've been doing everything I can to make that happen!

I've been impressed with Joe's abilities for quite a while. I love the questions he asks in the hearings, and he doesn't take any BS. He hasn't disappointed me in any of the debates, and usually far exceded expectations! I listed to his speeches every time I find one, and I really believe he would be the candidate best able to knock his oponent down, and then run over him with the bus! He's got the rare talent of being able to tell a joke and pull it off...most politicians can't!

I've sent the YouTube link to his interview by George S. on "This Week" recently to a lot of people, with a note saying "Here's an example of why I'm a Biden supporter!"

I posted a copy of an email I got from his campaign today that said a Rasmussen poll has Joe winning the election if his opponent was either udy of Mittens. I sure hope that means a lot more people than me are paying attention to Joe! Ohhh, I hope he wins 1st of 2nd in Iowa!!!!!

[Frustratedlady]

13. I think he has a good chance.

He hasn't really been campaigning that much in Iowa. He is now spending more time and is best when he's in town meeting types of contact with the people. He needs to be up close and personal, as I think they can believe him more and get to know him. He certainly doesn't hesitate before he answers a question.

[1corona4u]

16. No, he doesn't hesitate...

he speaks openly, and freely, which I like. I think Joe has played his cards right on the campaign trail, and the up close and personal approach will pay off. Nice to know though, that there are people who are able to see past superficial stuff, and get to the crux of the matter too.

Some people mistakenly think he's arrogant. But this is usually said by those who, themselves, have no, or low self esteem, and don't quite fully understand the nuances of self confidence. Joe is a confident person, and is confident about his experience, and his accomplishments. He's perfectly entitled to point out his history of service to this country.

[gateley]

26. Have you seen his video a Sacred Obligation? That's VERY impressive if people

are interested in how he views how we should honor our mililtary personnel. VERY moving.

[1corona4u]

37. Yes...

very thought provoking...

[inthebrain]

14. "He's sounding and looking very Presidential!!"

With Biden, once you get past the hair plugs, fake tan and crest whitening strips there isn't much else.

His domestic agenda over the years relating to fed funding of abortion, partial birth abortion and the Bankruptcy bill is atrocious.

There's more to being a president than sounding or looking like one. A department store manequin can fill the same role.

[Froward69]

32. oh yes

"once you get past the hair plugs, fake tan and crest whitening strips there isn't much else"

So you aren't bigoted? personal appearance based Bashing? you do not support anyone in this race just bash Biden. again your hate will consume you. if you have nothing nice to say, please don't say it.

[kad7777]

40. self delete

[Think82]

15. I still believe he will surprise people. It happened to Kerry and Edwards in 04

The closer the caucuses come the more serious people will get. And Biden is the serious choice!

[napi21]

17. Thanks for telling us that Joe was on cspan. I turned it on.

I don't know how much I missed, but I did get a chance to hear all the Q&A. I swear, every time I hear him, I like him and his ideas better than I did before. I'm going to check cspan & Joe's site to see if this speech can be viewed on line in it's entirety. I'd really like to hear the whole thing.

[1corona4u]

18. I think it's on again in the morning...

7:30 AM? I think...check cspan website...

[PatSeg]

20. That's what Cspan's website says

I've set it to record.

[napi21]

21. Thanks! I'll check. n/t

[Jennifer C]

28. Thanks 1corona4u

I'm watching it now.

[jlake]

19. I really Wish that he would. But my guess is a close 4th.

That would be impressive, but will he have any time to gain traction?

[PatSeg]

22. I've got a strong feeling he'll be in the top three

He is so many people's #2 which counts in a caucus.

[Byronic]

25. Hey jlake

Welcome to DU. So pleased to see another Biden supporter on board. Don't forget to drop into the Biden Discussion Group here on DU. You'll receive a warm welcome.

[youthere]

34. He has said if he places fourth in Iowa he will stay in the race.

[cali]

23. doubtful

I like Biden but this ain't 2004. It will be Clinton, Edwards and Obama in the top three, and I have no idea which will come in 1st, 2nd or 3rd.

[Byronic]

24. Thank you Kerry2008

I thought Joe Biden was exceptional tonight.

It's nice when a candidate lives up to the hopelessly idealistic, perhaps unrealistic, expectations, starry eyed supporters set for them. Biden did that tonight, for me.

[gateley]

27. Thanks for posting this - and for your encouraging words! nt

[Eurobabe]

29. I think your line up is about right

Obama, Edwards, Biden and Hillary/Richardson.

Can't wait to see the outcome!

[K Gardner]

30. I just watched it again for the second time around..

even more impressed this time. I think the Iowans there were, too. Did you notice two of the questions came from "former Republicans". Good omen to find so many in just that small sampling.

[Froward69]

33. That in itself

shows Joe would garner multitudes of independents and crossover votes and win the GE!!!

[Steely_Dan]

36. As time goes on...

Biden continues to get more and more attention. I wouldn't be surprised if he finished third.

-Paige

[Mike03]

38. That would be a fantastic triumph of sanity over mainstream momentum

He's my favorite candidate, but I've been on the verge of giving up and tossing my support to one of the top three.

Go Joe Go!

[ginchinchili]

41. Remember, it's not over 'til it's over.

Particularly in this case, but for Joe to get there we have to stick by him all the way.

[Stop Cornyn]

39. He's poling a fairly consistent 5th place, with 4th place Richardson appearing comfortably ahead of

him so it seems highly unlikely, but there is a reason why we have actual voter participation instead of choosing our leaders by pre-election polls.

1. I could see Hillary under-preforming because of a lack "second choice" support.

2. I could see (but don't expect) Obama under-performing because of too many youthful supporters who will be effectively disenfranchised by the scheduling of the caucus so far before the end of the winter break (as originally scheduled, many student supporters would have still been on break, but the caucus was close enough to the end of the break that it would have been easier for many of them to get back in time to participate).

3. I could see Richardson crater.

4. It is hard for me to understand Biden catching on, but then I don't like tuna fish, either, and so just because I don't get it doesn't mean I won't happen so I guess I could see Biden catching on.

While I could see any of these 4 things happening, none seems overly likely and Biden would need three of the four to occur to come in third.

That's not impossible, of course, but it certainly doesn't seem probable.

P.S. I didn't mention Edwards above because I can't really see Edwards coming in below Biden because most of the politically active people I know in Iowa are rabid Edwards fans and they tell me -- and I believe them -- that Edwards has better "second choice" support than Hillary and more supporters who would walk naked through a blizzard to caucus for him.

[kad7777]

42. TOP 3 ?? ABSOULTELY !!

Watched him live last night on CSPAN in Iowa.
Everyone was right with him. He captivates. It was amazing.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OtGCaqOdIJ4

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUC8LeZ1hM4

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_HcXkLbRIWw

[sandrakae]

43. Fuck no.

[MasonJar]

45. Have Iowans read the DU post which describes all the amendments

to protect the needy, the elderly and the veterans, which Biden voted against when supporting the bankruptcy bill? If so, I'd say he will not be too popular. I personally was not aware of the amendments that he opposed until a few minutes ago; it surely caught my attention. He'll have to be the nominee to get my vote.

[KittyWampus]

47. I'm sure you'll find a candidate whose voting record is 100% in line with your ideals. NOT.

Good luck on your quest for a perfect candidate.

Oh, and the rest of us are able to weigh the good points v. bad points with winning against a GOP'er as the goal.

[1corona4u]

53. What you don't know is...

he voted against the amendments because they were redundant. There were already protections in place for all of them. Of course people like to skip all of that when they are slamming him. The BK bill was to help women get their child support and alimony when deadbeat dads file a BK. So, instead of them being last in line, now they are first.

Oh, and just for good measure;

"Bankruptcies rising: Filings for personal bankruptcy increased by 17.3 percent in August, compared to the prior month, according to the American Bankruptcy Institute. As reported by Subprime Auto Finance News, 74,607 consumers filed for bankruptcy protection in August, versus 63,600 inJuly. Compared to August 2006, the latest figure was up by 31.2 percent. "Families facing heavy household debts are increasingly turning to bankruptcy as a short-term fix," said Samuel Gerdani, executive director of th eAmerican Bankruptcy Institute."

So, to say that this bill hurt anyone's chances of filing a BK, is just ludicrous. The factual statistics prove otherwise.

[mrigirl]

46. He'll place in the top 4-

I think he's been underestimated in the polls. We all know polls suck and usually are wrong anyways. There's more people that support Biden then we're aware of. I have a good feeling about Iowa (at least today!)

[saltpoint]

52. The mystic entrails say Biden will finish either 1, 2, or 3 in Iowa.

Edwards, Obama, Biden, but so close that all can claim a win.

Senator Clinton 4th or 5th behind Gov. Richardson.

[ginchinchili]

54. You're something else, Old Crusoe.

Your posts are always a pleasure to read.

[saltpoint]

55. So are yours, by god. Hi, ginchinchili. Good to run into you

on DU as always.

I like the trends this past week for the Carolinian.

It's gonna be a barnburner out there in the Hawkeye State!