Input requested: Is there consensus here that Richardson will probably finish 5th (or 4th?) in Iowa?

[Tejanocrat]

I'm thinking that the first three in Iowa will be Edwards, Obama, and Hillary (I hope in that order, but I'm sure others hope for a different order -- for the purposes of this topic, it hardly matters what order the top three finish).

Some people seem to think that Biden has passed Richardson, but I'm sure Richardson fans would disagree, and the polling seems to show Biden with more momentum than Richardson but Richardson still ahead of Biden.

In this context, I'm not asking about Kucinich, Edwards, Obama, Hillary, or Biden.

I'm only asking about Richardson. Only two questions:

Where will Richardson finish in Iowa?

How will Richardson's finish in Iowa affect his performance in New Hampshire?

Your thoughts on these two questions would be appreciated.

[cali]

1. I think you're probably right, and I think

it will help him in NH where he's in a statistical tie with JE.

[sundancekid]

2. yes - most definitely - O, E, C, R, B and the rest of the field - just imho

[FrenchieCat]

3. Well, considering that there is the "redistribution" process to deal with,

it will not be as evident as one might have thought.

I posed a question which appears very hard to answer, and may affect exactly how the Iowa Vote turns out for everyone: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x3745913

[Basileus Basileon]

4. At the moment, I'd guess C,O,E,R,B,K,D,G. To answer your questions, specifically:

1. Fourth, probably.
2. It probably won't by much.

[Carrieyazel]

5. Richardson could very well finish Top 2 in Iowa.

He's positioned very well. Coming from 10-20 points behind in Iowa has happened before. The polls could be completely shot. Many Iowans don't make up their mind until a week before the caucus.

If he does well, (especially if he wins Iowa), he will have an excellent shot to win New Hampshire.
Iowans are looking for the most electable candidates. So Hillary and Obama could very well lag behind. Biden will not pass Richardson and should finish 5th.

[Stop Cornyn]

6. Iowa: Edwards Hillary Obama Biden Richardson NH: Richardson'll have dropped out and endorsed Hillary

[cali]

7. I'm guessing it will be Obama, Clinton, Edwards

Richardson and Biden. And in NH, Clinton with Obama a close second, Richardson and Edwards. Why would Richardson drop out when he's tied with Edwards in NH? After NH, Edwards will drop out.

[Debi]

9. And her supporters will have paid off his campaign debt

just like Tom Vilsack :eyes:

+++++++++++++++++

I don't know that anyone will drop out until after SC 1/19 or maybe even Super Duper Tuesday 2/5 - all those running remember Dick Gephardt in 2004 and seem to be planning ahead.

[Carrieyazel]

10. No way Richardson finishes that low in Iowa. I'm sticking to Top 2.

Hillary is such a bad candidate, she could end up finishing 4th.

[Debi]

8. I don't know that The Big Three are going to come out

1, 2, 3 from Iowa.

I think one of The Next Three (Richardson, Biden, Dodd) will get to #3.

Who that will be will rely on who the Iowa caucus-goers 2nd choice is across the state.

The Big Three are not all #1 in all 99 counties of Iowa, and no poll of 500-1,000 Iowa voters can portray how caucus-goers are going to break on January 3rd.

[JohnnyLib2]

11. TSTT

Too Soon To Tell

[skipos]

12. I like Richardson a lot but he doesn't have the pizzazz that voters like in their candidates

I think Biden rivals Richardson in experience, but would have a better time connecting with voters. I agree that Richardson will end up 4th-6th. Behind HRC, BO, JRE but ahead of Dodd, Kucinich and Gravel. I am not sure where Biden will end up.

[brazos121200]

13. Richardson will get 4th in Iowa and not do well

at all in NH. My guess.

[Czolgosz]

14. Richardson comes in 5th and then either drops out to endorse Hillary or comes in 5th in NH.