Latest Rasmussen poll: Clinton-41%, Obama-24%, Edwards 13%...

[jenmito]

And over the weekend Obama was at 26%. Looks like the constant replaying of the latest debate didn't help Hillary no matter how hard they tried.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008__1/daily_presidential_tracking_polling_history

[THUNDER HANDS]

1. what will be interesting

is to see what happens when the field clears and narrows down. If it does.

Once Biden, Dodd, Richardson and either Edwards or Obama (one of the two) drop out, it'll be interesting to see where the support will go, will there be a rally behind the front-runner effect, like Kerry. Or will there be a move towards the challenger effect, like Clinton's victory in 92.

[jenmito]

3. I agree...

and Obama has much more "2nd choice" support than Hillary. And Obama also has the money to continue, unlike Edwards.

[THUNDER HANDS]

5. yes, however

The question will be, if after South Carolina, Edwards or Obama is still polling third, or has come in third in Iowa and New Hampshire, will they stay or drop out?

If one of them doesn't, and Hillary comes in first in both states, then nobody is beating her.

[jenmito]

7. I don't think Edwards has the money to stay in the race if he doesn't win IA

and CERTAINLY if he doesn't win IA and NH.

[THUNDER HANDS]

11. Yes

Edwards seems to be putting all his eggs in the Iowa basket, like he did last time.

If he finished third, it's pretty much over for him. The question would be whether he dislikes Hillary enough to drop out and play kingmaker and urge his supporters to head toward Obama.

[jenmito]

16. I think he WOULD do that...

he really DOES seem to dislike Hillary that much.

[THUNDER HANDS]

18. I think he would too

he'd be out of money and all he'd have left is his supporters. If he can have the opportunity to knock Hillary off by swinging his 15% to Obama, I think he'd do it. Especially if Obama promised him an AG spot or something in exchange.

Edwards would have nothing to lose by that point.

He could end up being the most influential person in the race.

[jenmito]

21. Very true...

and that's why most THs say Hillary wants Edwards to remain in the race as long as possible.

[Adelante]

13. What do you base that on, Jen?

In Iowa, at least, the polling I've seen is the three of them are about the same in second choices, meaning Obama gets about half of the Edwards vote and about half of the Clinton vote, but they all get about the same from each other.

[jenmito]

17. I heard it on one of the sunday shows yesterday. MTP, I think...

one of the panelists said Hillary has MUCH less 2nd choice support than the others.

[Adelante]

20. That's interesting

I haven't seen polling yet that reflects that, but it sure would be great for our side.

[jenmito]

26. I agree.

:)

[Adelante]

33. Here it is!

In another positive shift for Obama, the Illinois senator is increasingly not only the first but also the second choice of Iowa voters, an important trend in a state where voters often switch their support at the last minute after sizing up the political landscape.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/11/19/AR2007111900940.html?hpid=topnews

[jenmito]

34. Thank you for the link!

:hi:

[wyldwolf]

24. ha ha. So when you KNOW which Sunday show and which panelist said it...

...and it can then be corroborated with something more substantial than his/her word, come back and let us know.

[jenmito]

35. Ha ha here it is, thanks to WesDem above:

"Combining the second-choice picks of candidates outside the top three, 34 percent would select Obama, 28 percent Edwards and only 15 percent Clinton."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/11/19/AR2007111900940.html?hpid=topnews

:hi:

[wyldwolf]

40. ha ha. No, this was released today. Who said it on what show Sunday?

This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone November 14-18. There were no results unless the guest was from WaPo/ABC. So... what show and what guest so we can verify. :hi:

[wyldwolf]

22. Except the polling outfit you're quoting says Hillary has lots of second choice support.

At the moment, it’s difficult to envision such a lopsided defeat for Clinton partly because of a key difference between her campaign and Howard Dean’s. Dean, even while he was the frontrunner, was the second choice candidate for hardly anybody. Clinton, on the other hand, is the second choice for many in Iowa and New Hampshire.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008__1/2008_presidential_election/2008_democratic_presidential_primary

[FreeState]

31. She is gaining more too

I never thought Id say this but... she is my second choice now..

[jenmito]

36. But from the just released Newsweek poll, OBAMA has not only the most 2nd candidate support,

"Iowa Democrats are tilting toward change: 55 percent reported that a "new direction and new ideas" are their top priority, compared with 33 percent who favored "strength and experience." That is a shift from July, when 49 percent sought change and 39 percent experience."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/11/19/AR2007111900940.html?hpid=topnews

[FreeState]

6. True

I think that Obama will be the first of the leading candidates to drop out - Edwards will stay in till the end no matter what - same with Kucinich. I think everyone else will endorse Hillary. Just my humble prediction.

[THUNDER HANDS]

9. I think you could be right

if for no other reason, then this is the end for Hillary and Edwards. Both of them would be done in presidential politics if they lost this year.

Hillary would not get another shot, no matter how popular she is. If voters reject her now, they'd reject her for the same reasons in 2012 or 2016. And by 2016 she's be in her 70s.

Edwards would be a two-time primary loser, and he'd be done.

Obama is the only one up there who still would have a future. So he might be more inclined to drop out. Though I only think he'd do that if he didn't win South Carolina. That's the make-or-break state for him.

[FreeState]

15. Agreed -

I spoke with a good friend who is a Clinton supporter that pointed that out to me so I can't take complete credit for it...

[Carrieyazel]

25. Agreed. Hillary would still have a long career in the Senate. If she wants it.

If Hillary is rejected, she has a lifetime seat as the Senator from New York. The question is:

How would she react knowing that Senator is what she'll have to be satisfied with for the rest of her public life?

[FreeState]

30. Oh yeah she has that covered as well...

There was a reason she wont lower the cap on SS to 97K - for most of her constitutes in NYC that is poverty if your trying to raise a family. If she does not win the nomination she has retained her senate base voters. I've been amazed at how forward thinking some of her positions are (of course forward thinking for herself, not the county 100% of the time).

[jenmito]

10. Huh???

Neither Obama nor Kucinich have the money to continue much past IA. Obama won't drop out.

[FreeState]

12. Kucinich did not drop out last time - I voted for him in June 2004 n/t

[jenmito]

19. Different times. In '04, Edwards' money would've been the MOST raised...

this time he was forced to take matching funds.

[FreeState]

27. That might be true for Edwards but not Kucinich

he will run as long as he can with very little money - thats one of the reason most Americans that find out about him like him, he's poor just like the rest of us. His home is worth what 30K - he knows what its like to stretch the dollar and not give up on your dreams.

[jenmito]

38. No problemo...

run, Kucinich, run!

[THUNDER HANDS]

14. it depends

I think Gephardt dropped out so his supporters could help Kerry.

I think Obama or Edwards could do the same for eachother, provided they don't like Hillary so much that they just want to see her defeated.

But that won't happen until after South Carolina. And by then Hillary could have it wrapped up if she pulls the trifecta in all three states.

[jenmito]

23. I see Edwards doing that. Not Obama...

and in 8 years he won't be fresh anymore. He'll be like the '04 Edwards.

[THUNDER HANDS]

28. actually

He'd be more like the '08 Clinton by then.

[jenmito]

39. He'll never bee like her...

thankfully.

[Carrieyazel]

2. Hillary received no bounce from the folks at CNN.

It looks like the damage was done in Philadelphia. And she'll have to still deal with it.

[jenmito]

4. Exactly...despite their best effort!

[durrrty libby]

8. Give it a few days. These polls are not instant like cup o soup

[calteacherguy]

29. No Clinton News Network Bounce.

Probably hard to find people who even watched the charade.

[ronnykmarshall]

32. What a load of shit.

The debate had the highest rates.

Oh and can I just tell how ORIGINAL your little "Cinton News Network" shit is?

So Rush, so Coulter ....... so right wing.

[calteacherguy]

37. About 1% of the U.S. population watched.

I thought all the candidates had good moments, despite the bias. They all answered well on the supreme court nominees, especially Biden and Obama.