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SaveElmer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-17-07 07:50 AM
Original message
Hillary leads the pack among young voters...


Youth Polling Update

by Mike Connery, Sat Nov 17, 2007 at 07:39:48 AM EST

...Despite the media narrative and potentially impressive ground game of the Obama campaign, Hillary continues to lead the pack among young voters.

...

On the hypothetical Presidential match-ups, Democrats continue to dominate for the most part. What was interesting is that Clinton routinely wins by larger margins among 18-29 year olds against all Republican opponents, and both Barack Obama and John Edwards actually lose among young voters when pitted against Giuliani, who has long been the Republican favorite among young voters in these polls.

Within the Democratic Primary, the polling confirms trends I've written about extensively. Data culled from PEW shows Clinton leading Obama and Edwards nationally among 18-29 year olds 42 - 32 - 6%.

...

New Hampshire

Most young voters in New Hampshire will be voting in the Democratic Primary (45 - 32%; 24% not sure), and they are choosing Clinton by what I eyeball at about 45 - 20 - 10% (RtV provides graphs, not hard numbers within the polling report.).

Iowa

In Iowa, Hillary is dominating among 18-29 year olds (Rasmussen), with 40% of their vote compared to about 23% for Obama. Interestingly, Obama walks away with the Generation X vote, beating Hillary by 33% - to about 24%, and when CBS/NYTimes looked at Iowa, Obama won the under 45 vote.

South Carolina

Rock the Vote is also providing our first look at South Carolina for young voters, and it's neck and neck for Clinton and Obama, with Hillary holding a slight edge of about 41% - 39%.


http://www.mydd.com /



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Deja Q Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-17-07 07:58 AM
Response to Original message
1. *sigh* Generation Y and their pesky belief of entitlement...
Edited on Sat Nov-17-07 07:59 AM by HypnoToad
:crazy:

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jefferson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-17-07 08:06 AM
Response to Original message
2. Only young people who are around to answer land line phones are included in this "result"...
Edited on Sat Nov-17-07 08:07 AM by jefferson_dem
Regardless of how many RDD polls you clump together, "cell phone only" voters are excluded from the sampling frame and are therefore not reflected in the results. Clearly, these are disproportionally young voters...

http://www.futuremajority.com/node/749

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/10/04/politics/main...
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asdjrocky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-17-07 08:09 AM
Response to Reply #2
4. You are so right.
I work with a lot of young people in my business. I've found one out of 10 that support HRC.

Okay.... c'mon, somebody tell me I'm stupid. Or I have no idea what I'm talking about.
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jefferson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-17-07 08:15 AM
Response to Reply #4
6. I work with many young people as well...
and indeed...it's tought to find the Hillary-supporters among them.

By the way, well over half of them never put their ear against a landline phone. Their voices are not heard in any of these RDD poll results.
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SaveElmer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-17-07 08:27 AM
Response to Reply #4
9. So you believe your personal experience...
Is more accurate than scientific polling?

I know many young people, interact with them in my business, community groups, and as a precinct captain...Hillary is quite popular among those that I interact with...these numbers look about right based on my personal observation

Okay...tell me I'm stupid. Or I have no idea what I am talking about...
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roesch Donating Member (82 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-17-07 09:32 AM
Response to Reply #4
15. don't believe it
I work with university students evey day, listen to their comments, watch as they meet to support different candidates, and HRC does not have their support in these numbers--maybe Obama yes.
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SaveElmer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-17-07 08:25 AM
Response to Reply #2
8. Sorry...that has no bearing...
There is zero evidence that young people polled on landlines and those on cell phones answer any differently. The concern with cell phones is that it is reducing the potential population of those that can be reached by polling firms...not that cell phone users are some sub-demographic of the young voter who vote differently than non-cell phone users...

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jefferson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-17-07 08:33 AM
Response to Reply #8
10. These are different types of people, both demographically and attitudinally...
Edited on Sat Nov-17-07 08:34 AM by jefferson_dem
How much these differences matter...only time will tell.

Here's a fairly comprehensive study from last year. http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=2...
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SaveElmer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-17-07 08:42 AM
Response to Reply #10
11. Well that study kinda undercuts your argument doesn't it?


But young cell-only users and landline users do not differ widely in their political attitudes and partisan affiliation. It is true that the cell-only young respondents are more likely to approve of Bush's performance in office than are under-30 landline respondents (35% vs. 22%). On most other issues, however, they are more liberal and Democratic than their landline counterparts, though most of the differences do not achieve statistical significance. The modest nature of all of these differences suggests that young people whether cell-only or not are more similar than different politically.


Pretty slender reed hang hopes on...
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jefferson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-17-07 08:51 AM
Response to Reply #11
13. I knew that little passage would grab your attention.
Edited on Sat Nov-17-07 08:51 AM by jefferson_dem
PEW falls short of concluding that observed differences will amount to "statistically significant" election day results... But that doesn't mean differences don't exist. I would like to see more evidence...

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SaveElmer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-17-07 09:00 AM
Response to Reply #13
14. Seems to me alot of difference would be required...
Particularly for a demographic with historically low voting levels...

But we'll see...

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durrrty libby Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-17-07 08:07 AM
Response to Original message
3. She has appeal across the board, except men similar to Tucker Carlson
Edited on Sat Nov-17-07 08:20 AM by durrrty libby
Apparently he is very unsure of his manhood. He has stated numerous times that

when he sees Hillary, he is "compelled to cross his legs" Yep, he fears castration

Supposedly he is part of a large contingent with that fear. Idiot sexism still lives.
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onehandle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-17-07 08:13 AM
Response to Original message
5. Young voters don't vote and don't know the issues. The youth vote "revolution" did nothing...
...in 2004 like the "experts" were claiming.

They've simply heard Hillary's name a lot and parrot back what they've heard on teevee.


It's the American Idol effect.
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durrrty libby Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-17-07 08:24 AM
Response to Reply #5
7. You are right. Any candidate counting on the young'uns
will be in for a shocker. Phone or no phone, it does not matter

They would get out and vote if we had the draft, otherwise fuggedaboutit.
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jonnyblitz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-17-07 08:50 AM
Response to Reply #7
12. the most reliable voters are the ones the Obama campaign
has been DISSING, the older voters. All anybody has to do is google, "the most reliable age group that votes" or a variation of that to see the results.
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