New Hampshire: Hillary 43%, Obama 22%, Edwards 14%

[SaveElmer]

According to a new St. Anselm's poll...

http://thepage.time.com/

[cali]

1. That's a big lead n/t

[rocktivity]

7. And a big sample size. AND a big margin of error

The survey of 1,514 likely primary voters has margins of error of 4.1 percent for Democrats, 4.5 percent for Republicans and 4.8 percent for undecided voters...

1000 responses and a maximum MOE of 3 per cent is what you should always look for.

:headbang:
rocknation

[cali]

10. Thanks. I really don't know beans about polling

I appreciate the tip.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. The Larger The Sample The Smaller The Margin Of Error

But you reach a point of diminishing returns... I think a sample of 2,000 yields a margin of error of around two percent...Those are good for eve of the election polls but they are costly...

[William769]

2. ...

:wow:

[berni_mccoy]

3. I would not trust that poll... It was done by "The Union" an extreme RW rag.

[SaveElmer]

4. You think St. Anselm College would purposely skew a poll...

For the Union-Leader?

[KittyWampus]

8. Almost any poll is skewed (or not) towards whoever pays for the poll. Just saying.

Anyhow, I thought Hillary had a 30+ point lead?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. You Must Be Referring To The Nat'l Polls

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh08dem.htm

[berni_mccoy]

11. That's misleading in itself. The poll was conducted by SRBI Research in NYC

From the article:

St. Anselm College's Institute of Politics will release a new poll today, completed by SRBI Research in New York City,..."

And yes, I think there are pundits at colleges and universities who would skew results. I've seen it first hand while in Grad School. People in universities are as corruptible as anyone else.

When you read crap like this from the article:

Union Leader’s John DiStaso — the state’s most influential writer — says “New Englanders like people who stick to their proverbial guns….It’s simple. Yankees or Red Sox. Live Free or Die. No gray area. No exceptions.”

That is utter b.s. He's dumbing down the entire population. NH has some of the most informed voters in the nation. We take our first status as a serious responsibility.

[SaveElmer]

13. Do you have any evidence that this poll is baing manipulated...

Other than you don't like the results?

[berni_mccoy]

15. I didn't say it was, I just said I wouldn't trust it. I don't trust Rassmussen either

They have extreme bias.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. I Felt The Same Way About Rasmussen

But he nailed 06...

All a pollster has to sell is his or her findings... If his or her findings don't match the final results he or she would be out of business...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. Even If The Pollsters Are Clowns Their Findings Are Confirmed By Others In The Field..

That's all that really matters...

The more polls the more robust the results...

[cali]

5. The Manchester Union?

I thought it was done by St. Anselm's college.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. Here Are Some More Polls

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_primary-194.html#polls

[Alamom]

17. Very Nice. Thank you.nm

[durrrty libby]

18. K & R

[jgraz]

19. It must be nice to have a poll-rigging expert running your campaign

http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Penn%2C_Schoen_and_Berland_Associates

Penn, Schoen and Berland (PSB) has played a pioneering role in the use of polling operations, especially "exit polls," in facilitating coups. Its primary mission is to shape the perception that the group installed into power ... has broad popular support. The group began work in Serbia during the period that its principle, Mark Penn, was President Clinton's top political advisor.

Hmmm... Sound familiar?

[burythehatchet]

20. Remember the thread from last night? This is what I'm talking about. More BS than I

care to deal with.

[cali]

26. LOL.

I love elitist faux intellectualism. Reminds me of fake leather.


:rofl: :rofl:

[DemocratSinceBirth]

21. Let's Discard That Poll Then And Rely On The Other Twenty Or So That Confirm The Same Phenomenon

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_primary-194.html#polls

[jgraz]

22. Burston-Marsteller: Building Reality for 35 years

I never said they weren't being successful with their poll fixing. Let's see if it translates into actual votes. Somehow I doubt the large pool of undecideds are going to break decisively for Hillary.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

23. When You're Polling Near 50% You Don't Need To Worry About The Undecideds

Is it your assertion that every poll that shows Hillary Clinton with a large lead, since that's what just about every poll shows, regardless of who is doing the polling, is fixed?

If it is there is nothing I or anybody can do to disabuse you of that notion..

[jgraz]

24. Not fixed so much as weak

I do think some of the polling is suspect, especially with Penn at the helm. But mostly I think the polling is just shakey, based on name recognition and crafty marketing. Hillary's not leading because she's perceived as the best choice, she's being pushed as the best choice simply because she's leading. That's a house of cards that can collapse if she gets beat early.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

27. I Tend To Agree...

Polls are merely snapshots but Bush* rode a brand name to the White House so why should I believe Clinton can't...


I also think her support is firmer than you think...Most of her support comes from the least ideological Democrats- working class folks and older folks... They're not the people on the net discussing the latest piece of information...

[jgraz]

29. Except Bush lost. Twice.

I'm not enough of a conspiracy theorist to think Hillary's preparing to actually steal the primary. If Iowa holds steady, she's going to go into NH as a defeated frontrunner. That's never good.

[Tellurian]

25. Let's face it. If Save Elmer were an Obama supporter..

this thread would be ripping with hits and Rs keeping it at the top of the page.

GO HILLARY!

[jgraz]

28. Yes, people here don't like Hillary. Deal with it.

I'm hoping DU is a harbinger of what's to come once people start paying attention.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

30. You Will Be Sorely Disappointed

DU is is to Democratic politics what The Outlaws are to motorcycle enthusiasts...

That's an empirical observation and not a normative judgement...


Just look at the most popular candidates at DU and how they actually fare when people vote...

[jgraz]

31. As will most true progressives if Hillary actually manages to slime her way to the nomination

I'm just saying it's far from a foregone conclusion at this point.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

33. I'm Actually Quite Liberal But Also Quite Practical

I have no illusions about how much change this system will actually tolerate...

[cali]

34. Actually

time is running out for all of them.

[cali]

32. LOL!

this just gets funnier DU is a harbinger of nothing. Much as I'd like to see Obama or Biden move up, the odds of that are lessened each day. And if you think people aren' paying attention in Iowa and NH just 2 months before the caucuses and primary, you're seriously mistaken.

[Tellurian]

35. You speak for yourself..

not all of us. People are paying attention.

[desi]

36. Surely doesn't speak for this True Progressive

I have no idea how and why some FELLOW leftists have taken it upon themselves to determine who is and who is not a "True Progressive."

[DemocratSinceBirth]

37. I'm Supporting Hill Cuz She Looks Like A Winner

Better to win and get some progressive things done then to lose and get no progressive things done...

JFK ran as a centrist and paved the way for the civil rights movement and Medicare and Medicaid...Does anybody believe it would have happened as quickly with Nixon?

[desi]

38. I honestly believe that some of Hillary's detractors

could care less of the consequences should WE lose to a Rudy, Thompson, etc. The comment that she would "slime" her way to a win is what prompted me to enter this thread. Totally uncalled for. She is running a clean campaign and has resisted getting in the gutter with the other candidates, from both sides, who have attempted to goad her into replying in kind.

[Tellurian]

44. Yes, you're exactly right.

The bitterness eschewing from rival candidate's supporters is palpable. I genuinely feel sorry for them rendering themselves virtually impotent in the scheme of things. Except of course, when they're appealing to their basest instincts mud slinging, as somehow soothing in retribution for a bruised ego.

[BootinUp]

39. Its all in the Truthiness n/t

[desi]

42. If only we all could get all that we want...

btw, I'd like to see Wes as her running mate should she get the nod. If that should come to pass get ready for the "Wes is a closet Repub/DLC'er" cries from the usual suspects.

[BootinUp]

43. heh

I'm always prepared for those, and not hard to knock down either.

[Duncan]

40. I don't believe it.

Why is it out of all the democrats I know NONE support Hillary, and yet the polls always favor her. I know more Republicans who would vote for Gore than I know democrats who would vote for Hillary. Most support Edwards, a few support Obama, and I support Kucinich (Gore if available, and my vote will go to Edwards if he has a chance in the primaries).

[DemocratSinceBirth]

41. Another "None Of My Friends" Will Vote For Hillary Post

Do Hillary's opponents plan on boring her supporters to death?


As an aside, did anybody stop to think most folks choose friends that think like them, and most strangers don't want to be confrontational so they will give folks they meet the response they think is desired...