If you can get the right odds, put a little beer money on Biden, Huckabee and McCain

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

We are talking verrrrrrrry long odds, but those are the only three dark horses I can visualize ending up in front.

I have tried to imagine scenarios where Dodd or Tancredo get the nod, but they all involve asteroid strikes.

[ginchinchili]

1. I'll take that bet.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

2. If none of those three gets their party's nod I'll buy you a virtual beer

And if one of them does, you have to buy me 100 virtual beers!

Does anyone die from virtual alcohol poisoning?

[ginchinchili]

3. LOL...actually, I want to bet on the long shot.

particularly Biden. I sense that there are a lot of Democrats, and Independents for that matter, who aren't really satisfied with the front runners, and when they give Biden serious consideration, his candidacy makes sense. But I must confess, I am a supporter!

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

6. Okay, we'll find one sucker and split the haul. If Biden was at 15% he's be a live prospect

He's the only Dem white male that seems like a tough guy, and has an insane gender gap (9% of men, 2% of women), so he and Edwards have the most running room without having to poach directly from Clinton.

Edward's gender gap is also large... women-8/men-17. Obama's about even.

If Biden could edge Edwards for third in Iowa he might have a puncher's chance in NH. Of course, Iraq news would play a role... no accounting for news.

[ginchinchili]

7. I agree with your analysis.

I look forward to sharing a virtual beer with you.

[MrRobotsHolyOrders]

4. I don't think it is utterly inconcievable

That Huckabee swings for the fences, takes second in Iowa, and faces the GOP with a choice between an amiable, southern, former governor and a heretical, gay loving millionaire.

The aw' schucks Huckabee matched with some rabid fanatic in the VP slot would probably give the 2008 ticket quite a headache.

[SaveElmer]

5. A very little...

Huckabee is getting some traction because of the complete buffoonery of the rest of the field. He is a rw whack job of the first order with some pretty bizarre ideas and views on things...

Like distributing condoms in Africa to prevent AIDS might be a bad idea...

Or denying the truth of evolution..

Or his flat tax plan

He is personable, and doesn't tend to froth like the others which makes him look reasonable by comparison. But if he gets traction the others will open him up like a soft cashew...and if by some miracle he got the nod, there is so much for the Democrats to attack that his patina of reason will be stripped away pretty easily

Plus, his fundraising has been pathetic...I think even Kucinich outraised him. I think his true goal is the VP slot.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

8. Why do people keep saying Huckabee is too loony to win a republican nomination? How can anyone

be too crazy to win a republican nomination? Charles Manson wouldn't be out of the running.

Every single week for 7 years the pugs have done something that was too crazy to ever happen. It's their whole gig. They live to astound.

In relative terms, Huckabee is more mainstream than Reagan was in 1980.

[SaveElmer]

9. Not what I meant really

If he gains any traction, given the overwhelming advantage of the others in terms of fundraising..Huckabee will not be able to keep up. The others will open up on him full bore and he will have little to fight back with.

And, whatever percentage of his support is coming from right leaning indies will disappear.

If Republicans stick to their time table there is only a little over 2 months to go before the first primary...he brought in a whole 1 million last quarter...Obama brought 1 million in in one day...

Right now he is a cipher for those discontented with their other choices...

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

11. I agree that he lacks the $$$ to go the distance

but at the same time, nobody has maxed out contributions on him, either. If a Christianist dark horse emerges he should get an infusion. Probably not enough, but I'm talking very long odds.

If Huckabee WON Iowa (not impossible) he would get a few million overnight. Then he could concede NH and run off to SC and start running ads. Let Rudy, Romney and McCain wreck each other in NH and hope the winner leaves NH with a sticky "not a republican" label on him. (One of those three might finish behind Paul in NH, which should be lights out.)

Like I said, long odds. But I cannot construct a similar long-shot scenario for Tancredo or Brownback.

[PatSeg]

10. He comes across as very likeable even though

most of what he says is right-wing crazy. He is definitely more mainstream than Reagan and sometimes he actually makes sense.