Early "most likely Democrat to be nominated" ranking shows no change

[DeepModem Mom]

WP political blog, "The Fix," by Chris Cillizza
08/24/2007
Friday Presidential Line: No Rest for the Weary

....Here's our take on where the candidates for president stand at the moment. The candidate ranked number one on each side is considered most likely to win the nomination. Remember, this is a snapshot in time; a campaign would rather be ranked #1 on Jan. 1 than today....

DEMOCRATS

1. Hillary Rodham Clinton: Clinton's lead in national polls continues to widen over her rivals -- each of whom insists national polling doesn't matter. We agree -- to a point. The nominating process is still a state-by-state affair, but voters in early states like to be with a winner. So if Clinton looks like that heading into Iowa, it could well impact how the caucuses turn out. Clinton remains the steadiest candidate on the stump and in debates although -- for the first time -- she let herself be rattled by her opponents regarding her acceptance of donations from lobbyists during the YearlyKos presidential forum. That mistake aside, Clinton has effectively neutralized many of the doubts about her candidacy, including her initial vote for the 2002 resolution authorizing the use of force against Iraq. Polling seems to show voters are more interested in plans for the future than examinations of the past. But, if and when her opponents begin to hammer her on the vote on television, do those numbers move? (Previous ranking: 1)

2. Barack Obama: Obama's performance in the ABC debate last weekend was his best yet and effectively outlined a central tension he is hoping to raise in the coming months: the difference between experience and judgment. Obama and his team is well aware that the biggest knock on him is that he has spent too little time on the national stage to be elected to the nation's highest office. But, Obama has begun to push back against that experience argument by noting that despite the years and years of political experience of other candidates in the race, he was the only one of the frontrunners to get it right when it came to Iraq. His judgment was better, and after all isn't good judgment at the core of being a leader? It's a potentially powerful distinction depending on just how much the original 2002 Iraq vote matters to Democratic primary and caucus voters. (Previous ranking: 2)

3. John Edwards: The Edwards campaign seem to have concluded that the field isn't big enough for two "change" candidates. And so, Edwards has begun to draw contrasts with Obama in an attempt to wrest the change mantle from the Illinois Senator. Edwards has attacked Obama's plan to reform lobbying in Washington and continually calls for "bold" change. But, Edwards's rhetoric may be less important than his tone as he tries to differentiate himself from Obama. Edwards is angry, outraged even, about the state of affairs in Washington. It's a marked contrast to the calm, cool and collected manner of Obama. But are voters ready to cast a ballot for an angry candidate? (Previous ranking: 3)

4. Bill Richardson: What to do about Bill Richardson? In the same month that polls continue to show positive movement in Iowa and New Hampshire and he puts together his best debate performance to date, he also tells a gay rights forum that he believes homosexuality is a choice -- a position he later retracted. UGH! So it goes for Richardson: he seems to take two steps forward in this campaign for every one he takes backward, but those steps backward get a lot of attention. His tendency towards misstatements may help to explain why the frontrunners don't appear to be losing sleep over Richardson's uptick in early state polls. Richardson needs to continue to stay under the frontrunners' radar for the next few months and catch fire in December and early January. It's a bit far fetched but nonetheless possible. (Previous ranking: 4)....

(NOTE: Chris Dodd is number 5. The GOP rankings are Giuliani and Romney tied for first, followed by Fred Thompson, with Mike Huckabee in fourth, surpassing McCain.)

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